FPL enthusiast, (OR 2017: 50K, 2018: 52K, 2019: 90K; 2020* 160K; Chelsea fan! member of Lawro Bollocks Porcino Kenyaya Brokeback tournament team!
Joined June 2019
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FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
First look at #FPL GW10: Projected Goals, Clean Sheets & Fixtures, derived from sharp market data 📈
⚽ 7/20 teams over 1.70 projected goals (vs 4/20 in GW9)
🛡️ Arsenal’s 59%: the highest CS% we expect to see all season
Plenty of clear fixtures to target, unlike in GW9!
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
لو بتدور على الهجوم اللي تستثمر فيه الفترة الجاية
دول أفضل 9 فرق من حيث توقعات تسجيل الأهداف في الـ 5 جولات القادمة 🎯
Via: @elevenify , @FPLFocal
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
There are fixture swings for some of the teams from GW9
#FPL Players to target from the respective teams :
1) Bournemouth
🟤 Tavernier
🟤 Evanilson
🟤 Silva/Truffert
2) Tottenham
⚪ Van Hecke
⚪ Kudus
⚪ Pedro Porro/Kinsky
3) Aston Villa
🟣 Manzambi
🟣 Jackson
🟣 Suzuki/Mcginn
4) Brighton
🔵 Vuskovic
🔵 Hinshelwood
🔵 Gross
5) Everton
🔵 Tarkowski
🔵 Dewsbury Hall
🔵 Pickford
6) Liverpool
🔴 Isak
🔴 Jacquet
🔴 Gakpo
Anyone else?
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
It’s hard not to like Gonzalo for this Fulham run of games, he’d be a lock if I was on WC6!
About 3xGI so far from games that include Liverpool, Chelsea and United.
Not to mention the piece I made about how well strikers tend to do in the “green” fixtures…
He just feels like a great pick for 5-6 weeks, and then simply move him to Calvert-Lewin for COV (H) in GW12.
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
📋GW6 WC Players to Target shortlist
🧤Goalkeepers
🔹Raya
🔹Verbruggen
🔹Leno
🔹Tzolakis
🔹Kelleher
🛡️Defenders
🔹Muharemovic
🔹Hall
🔹Silva
🔹Tarkowski
🔹Thiaw
🔹De Cuyper
🔹Murillo/Munoz
🔹N Williams
🔹Gvardiol
🔹Affengruber
🔹Konsa
🔹Calafiori
🎯Midfielders
🔹Gross
🔹Rogers
🔹Barnes
🔹Saka
🔹Schade
🔹King/Bobb
🔹Le Fee
🔹Gibbs White
🔹Palmer
🔹Stach
🔹Tavernier
🔹Scott
🔹Semenyo
⚽️Forwards
🔹Haaland
🔹Joao Pedro (If fit)
🔹Evanilson
🔹Garcia
🔹Thiago
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
Here are the best fixture runs on paper to target between now and the new year!
👉🏻Custom FDR adjusted to form, ranked by average
(Runs of 5+ games)
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
GW6–10: Left-Channel Vulnerability
Next 5 fixtures are possibly the best for Barnes and Hall, as their opponents not only allow plenty of shots from their zones but also a good amount of final-third entries and actions after carries.
#FPL
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
Midfielder underlying threat audit ahead of GW6:
Evaluating Expected Goals (xG) vs Expected Assists (xA) per 90 across GW1-5 to identify sustained attacking output versus temporary variance 🎯📊
🟢 DOING BOTH (High Goal + Assist Threat):
• Saka (0.70 xG/90 • 0.21 xA/90)
• B. Fernandes (0.51 xG/90 • 0.26 xA/90)
• E. Le Fée (0.42 xG/90 • 0.28 xA/90)
🔴 LOW OUTPUT BOTH WAYS (Limited underlying floor):
• Gomez (0.16 xG/90 • 0.16 xA/90)
• Neto (0.18 xG/90 • 0.16 xA/90)
• Dewsbury-Hall (0.20 xG/90 • 0.17 xA/90)
Underlying xGI isolates sustained involvement. Players combining central shot volume with high-value key passes offer the safest long-term floor during the international break.
🔁 Pass this along to an FPL manager planning their international break transfers.
#FPL
ALT Midfielders: Shoot or Create (xG vs xA per 90) matrix for GW1-5 (2026/27 season) by fpldave.com. Compares Expected Goals Per 90 (x-axis, median 0.28) against Expected Assists Per 90 (y-axis, median 0.20). Doing Both quadrant (green): Saka (0.70 xG, 0.21 xA), B. Fernandes (0.51 xG, 0.26 xA), E. Le Fée (0.42 xG, 0.28 xA), Gibbs-White, Ndoye, Rogers, Lewis-Potter. Low On Both quadrant (red): Gomez (0.16 xG, 0.16 xA), Neto (0.18 xG, 0.16 xA), Dewsbury-Hall (0.20 xG, 0.17 xA), Enciso. Creators quadrant: Cherki, Gakpo, Ødegaard, Bobb, Fatawu, Iwobi. Finishers quadrant: Mbeumo, Tavernier, Groß, Palmer, Szoboszlai, King, Schade. Filtered for 300+ mins, top 24 by xG+xA/90.
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
📊WR Matchups for Week 4 Fantasy Football
▪️QB, RB, TE are also in this thread▪️
Outside receivers (left chart) and slot receivers (right chart)
📌 Bookmark this post for Week 4 matchups
How to Interpret:
Drake London's outside matchup vs the Saints is +6.6 PPR
Outside WRs score 6.6 MORE fantasy points than expected vs NO, when adjusting for outside WRs faced
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
Are we giving a lot of importance to Defcon?
Only 10% of the total points of the top 20 defenders are Defcon points - same as bonus points.
Only Branthwaite, Muharemović, Egan and VVD have 20%+ of their total points as Defcon points.
Clean sheets are still the 'bread and butter' - 33% of overall.
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
TOP 3 TEAM FDR GW6-10
1 Fulham
2 Coventry
3 Sunderland
Top 5 assets for predicted points from @FPL_Marcello’s model for next 5 GWs:
Mukiele
Iwobi
Roefs
Xhaka
ELF
Thanks @FPL_Fenerbahce for the motivation
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
Saka Has The Highest xG Per 90 Of Any Midfielder.
13.5% Of Managers Own Him.
Who shoots, who creates, who does both.
#FPL Labs Breakdown 👇
⚪ Doing both (xG / xA per 90):
→ 0.70 / 0.21 : Saka, 13.5%
→ 0.51 / 0.26 : B.Fernandes, 38.8%
→ 0.42 / 0.28 : E.Le Fee, 3.4%
→ 0.36 / 0.26 : Ndoye, 0.7%
→ 0.35 / 0.25 : Rogers, 40.3%
→ 0.31 / 0.28 : MGW, 15.7%
⚪ Creators only (xA per 90):
→ 0.46 : Cherki, 28.2%
→ 0.42 : Gakpo, 12.6%
→ 0.32 : Ødegaard, 19.8%
→ 0.30 : Bobb, 0.3%
→ 0.28 : Fatawu, 0.2%
Ndoye has Bruno's shape at £5.5m and 0.7% owned.
E.Le Fee is doing the same at £5.7m.
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
Next graphic from me and it’s the best fixture rotations from GW6!
👉🏻Custom FDR using bookies odds and form (adjusted)
*The top one doesn’t ‘rotate’ as such, but I had to include it as it’s very good!
FPL_Triple_Nutmeg retweeted
I have looked at the 'Talismans' by FPL Points, G+A, xGI and BCC+BC.
A few observations:
- JP, Palmer and Rogers sharing points as expected. JP highest despite missing a game.
- Saka has 29% of team xGI and 32% of team BCC+BC. Everything does seem to be going through him.
- Barry (EVE) tops both xGI (34%) and BCC+BC (38%) - Everton's creative and clinical focal point, however only 2 goals in 8 BC so far. DCL second for both those metrics.
- Morgan Gibbs-White (NFO) & Ryan Tavernier (BOU) are the only two players in the top 20 of all four categories - Points, G+A, xGI, BCC+BC. True all-round talismans.
- Haaland has the most big chances involvement in raw numbers (10 BCC+BC) but only 29% team share - City spread it around more than most.
- 6 defenders and 1 goalkeeper in the top 20 Talisman by points.
