FPL community lurker.
Joined November 2019
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FPL Spacesheep retweeted
#GW21 Match-up: Team xG vs. Opponent xGC
Source: @fbref
- '24/25 Season Data
- Home and away are taken into consideration
#FPL #FPLCommunity
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
#FPL Open Play vs Set Piece strength.
Data from: @OptaAnalyst , up to GW20.
There is some clear disparity between LIV and the rest of the pack, as far as open play goal threat goes, this season. CHE are their closest rivals.
On the other hand, ARS are far superior than anyone else in the league for creating chances from set pieces, while 7 teams boast better open play threat. About 1/3rd of their nPxG is actually created from set pieces. Same goes for AVL and NFO too.
#FPLUSA #FPLBD #FPLCommunity
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
#FPL Big Chance Involvement
On this chart:
x−axis: Big Chances Per 90 minutes
y−axis: Big Chances Created Per 90 minutes
Data from: @FantasyFootyFix, for GW1−20 this season. Only players who have played at least 450 minutes so far, and have at least 1 big chance involvement.
OPTA defines 'Big Chance' as "A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter." Penalties are always considered big chances.
N.B.: Saka omitted from the chart for aesthetics. He is at 0.35 BC/90 and 1.4 BCC/90. He is the only player with more than 1.0 BCC/90.
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
#GW19 Match-up: Team xG vs. Opponent xGC
Data Source: @fbref
- '24/25 Season Data
- Home/Away are considered
Now that half of the season has passed and the data is more mature, we are focusing solely on this season’s home/away data and setting aside information from the previous season.
It’s worth noting, though, some teams (e.g., WHU) might face tougher opponents at home in the first half of the season, which could skew their home data to appear worse than their away data.
#FPL #FPLCommunity
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
*Since GW6*
Haaland 35 pts in 10 weeks.
Salah 107 pts in 9 weeks.
If you captained every week it's 70 vs 214
Throw in Palmer as C when Salah's game was called off and Haaland owners went Haaland it's 18 pts on top for Salah really making it:
70 to 232!
162 pts difference in 10 weeks!
That's more points than a large % of players in the entire game will get over the whole season.
And that doesn't account for loss in value and of course things like having more money for Bruno/ Isak over Semenyo or whoever so the damage is likely greater.
(Yes not everyone will have C Salah every week etc)
People who don't even believe in variance or whatever can't even say they expected that outcome, right? And saying well yeah City bad bruv isn't a good enough argument, Haaland got the xG, didn't convert. Rodri was out at the start of season and they were cooking. Many teams are "bad" but players score pts. Salah got multiple pens. Haaland scored multiple goals gw 1 to 5.
There are always large swings in FPL but this is a particularly brutal difference however you cut it. Even if Salah was the clear more optimal path nobody would expect that extreme an outcome. We're probably talking in the 1% range of outcomes. I'm not moaning, just evaluating.
Taking the EO variance path you open yourself up to these, but potentially also to being one of the few who win big. I'll likely never change that about my play style as long as the eV is close and justifiable.
Long way to go and yes some points could be gained back on the field but ultimately vs the good players I actually enjoy competing against it will need similary extreme outcomes that may not even be manufacturable now teams are so similar. It is what it is, we shoot our shot and it failed.
Moving forward all I can do is just try to play as optimally as possible and look for "free risk" opportunities (similar ev big difference in eo) when they arise if I wish to jump in rank significantly.
Playing more analytically does help in such situations but unless you are legit a robot it's never nice to get such a poor outcome in something you enjoy and invest a lot of time in. Be it FPL or anything else in life.
The good news is I can just change my goals and of course there is always next season to make a mends.
I'll be there again next time, and eventually, hopefully before death, we hit big, right? =)
My fellow Haaland sufferers, I salute you 🫡
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
Attacking & Defensive Fixture Difficulty GW 17-21
X: Opponent Accumulated xGC from @fbref
- Home/Away are considered from GW1 of the last season, except for the promoted teams
Y: Total Cleansheet Probability from @fplreview
⭕️Most of the strong teams have favorable defensive and offensive fixtures
⭕️ FUL, CRY, and MUN are some notable teams whose fixtures improve during this period
⭕️ WOL falls into Q4 primarily due to their next two matches against LEI (A) and MUN (H). Although MUN's defensive numbers away from home have been poor, their defense has shown improvement under Amorim. In 7 matches across all competitions, their xGC was below 1.0 on 5 occasions
⭕️ The next two fixtures are favorable for WHU and BHA attackers
#FPL #FPLCommunity
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
#GW16 Match-up: Team xG vs. Opponent xGC
Data:@fbref
- GW1 '23/24 - GW15 '24/25
- Home/Away are considered, except for the Promoted teams, for which '24/25 season data are averaged
#FPL #FPLCommunity
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
Midfielder (7.5m or below) Mins/App. vs. nPxGI/90
Data: @FFScout
- Minimum 5 Starts. and 30 mins/App.
- Maximum 7.5m Cost Midfielders
- GW 1-15
Many of you might be searching for Mbeumo replacements. This chart highlights the underlying data and minutes per appearance of several potential options.
⭕️Medium-/Long-Term Good Fixtures: Johnson, Gordon, Eze, Mitoma, Rogers
⭕️ Short-Term Good Fixtures: Bowen, Kudus, Semenyo, Kluivert
⭕️ Potential Cheap Gems: Amad, Enzo
⭕️ FUL have good fixtures, especially from GW19 onward, making their midfielders good options if you can bench them in GW16 and GW18
#FPL #FPLCommunity
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
#FPL thoughts GW2 — All the games I watched fully or the extended highlights
Brighton vs United
— United defense better than last season. But, it’s still not very good. Lapse in concentration, midfielders not tracking back during counters means United will give away chances.
— Bruno still a fine asset. Mins, penalty still there. But, the team is not consistent enough to trust them.
— Garnacho may come back into the starting 11. May become an asset in the future.
— Brighton attack very good. All their attackers can be good assets depending on mins. Pedro, Minteh, Mitoma, Welbeck all look good. But, monitor their mins. Pedro moving to 9 when Welbeck is substituted is a positive for Pedro. Pedro on pens of course.
— Brighton playing an aggressive style leaving a lot of space behind their defense. Any team with pacy wingers would take advantage.
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
#FPL thoughts — All the games I watched fully or at least extended highlights
United vs Fulham
— Bruno played false 9. I expect him to play 10 or false 9 going forward. Got good chances, couldn’t convert
— Mazraoui proper option at 4.5m if you think United keep CS
— United defense looked better than last season. Conceded 10 shots. United conceded 20 shots a game last season for fun.
— Amad on a few set pieces, Mins not good
— ESR looked fine, tough game. Got subbed off early, but his mins should increase going forward.
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
Best defenders to target for #FPL
A Thread - RT appreciated
2nd half of PL23-24 from @FFScout analyzed
- NPxGI per 90 vs Team NPxCS per game
- NPxR (NPxGI + NPxCS) per 90 vs xMins
1. NPxGI per 90 vs Team NPxCS per game
- Marker color - Minutes played; Marker size - Bonus per return for the whole season
- For bonus, I used the revised bonus calculated by the amazing @fplteam_
- You want to target players who have good attacking numbers (NPxGI), CS chances (Team NPxCS), and bonus potential
- Arsenal and City high CS potential
- TAA and Robertson attacking stat off the charts. Well above other defenders
- Gvardiol shows that perfect combination of attacking threat and CS potential
- Gabriel attacking threat higher than both White and Saliba
- Porro attacking numbers not as high as one would expect
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
Best GK to own in FPL this season
A Thread - RT appreciated #FPL #2ndHalfFC
- Team xGC vs Saves per game (2nd half of 23-24 season data from @FFScout )
- Bonus potential: New bonus calculated per return vs Saves per 90 (Bonus data provided by the amazing @fplteam_ )
1. Team xGC vs Saves per game (2nd half of 23-24 season data)
- Marker color: CS per game; Marker size: Bonus per return (old bonus from FPL)
- You want a goalkeeper who concede low xGC while simultaneously getting high save points
- Interesting data since its a direct correlation that teams who concede more shots also concede more xG (more or less). You usually see 1/2 teams conceding many shots without conceding high xGC. Makes it simple: Either choose low xGC teams or high save points teams
- Teams with more CS potential, like Arsenal and City, don't get many save points.
- Before the 23-24 season, the PL average xG conceded used to be ~1.35. Anything below that usually means that team wont get many CS. Brighton and Palace probably provides a good option for GK since their xGC data is decent and they also concede decent number of shots. Forest similar story. If you like any of their goalkeepers (ability in shot-stopping), I think their goalkeeper could be a good option.
- Notice that according to the old bonus system, a few goalkeepers received high bonus points (>2 bonus points per return). This changes drastically according to the new bonus system.
FPL Spacesheep retweeted
IT'S THAT TIME OF YEAR AGAIN!
The 23/24 roundup stream is done and the 24/25 fixtures are released on Tuesday. It's time to get voting for next season's #FPLBlackBox colour palette!
Let's start with GROUP A. The 8 colours have been put into a random draw. Get voting below!
