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FRAGMENTS finds the pieces the market leaves behind โ€” hidden assets, neglected balance sheets, broken stories โ€” and puts them together before the cro #Fragments

Joined June 2017
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐—–๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜€ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐˜€๐˜ $CMTG โ€” ๐—ค๐Ÿฏ ๐—จ๐—ฝ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ CMTG was up roughly ๐—œ๐Ÿณ% ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด this morning after closing at ๐—ฆ๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ yesterday. The company released its Q3 results last night, reporting ๐—ฆ๐Ÿด.๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿต ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ. We published our Deep Value Report on CMTG back in August, when the stock had fallen to $1.77 against $8.58 of reported book value. I went back through the new numbers this morning to see how the actual recoveries compared with our estimates. During Q3, CMTG resolved ๐—ฆ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿต.๐Ÿฑ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜€, followed by another ๐—ฆ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ๐Ÿด.๐Ÿณ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป in full repayments during October. Financings outstanding have also come down substantially, and no additional loans were added to the watchlist during the quarter. One transaction caught my attention. CMTG has agreed to sell a troubled multifamily loan for ๐—ฆ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฑ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป, about 98% of its carrying value. The company hasn't identified the property, but the figures appear to match The Park in Santa Monica, which we analyzed in August. We had estimated ๐—ฆ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿด๐Ÿฑโ€“๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป for that exposure in our base case. If this is indeed The Park and the sale closes at $245 million, we were too conservative. I'm happy to acknowledge that. There are still plenty of risks. CMTG has $566.2 million of CECL reserves, roughly 40% of its loan portfolio by carrying value remains on non-accrual, and the ๐—ฆ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—›๐—ฃ๐—ฆ ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—บ ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ป is still outstanding. I'm encouraged by the recent transactions, particularly because we're starting to see what buyers are actually willing to pay for some of these assets. But I still want to see how much cash remains after the lenders, financing costs and other expenses have been paid. Our original ๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ goes through The Park, Uptown Atlanta, Key Bridge, Old Chicago, the REO portfolio and the debt structure in detail. Here: cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐— ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น $MERC โ€” ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ $๐Ÿฌ.๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ, ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ž๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น๐—ผ๐—ด๐—ด ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ% ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜†. That combination got my attention. Kellogg's last ownership filing showed 26.95 million shares, representing 40.25% of Mercer. He was still buying in June, around $0.90 per share. Now Mercer has announced an agreement to exchange approximately $1.125 billion of senior notes for equity and raise $400 million in new financing. The company owns four pulp mills, lumber operations, mass-timber facilities and power-generating assets. But the creditors are negotiating for most of the ownership. Here's what I'm particularly curious about. Shareholders representing approximately 50% of Mercer have agreed to support the restructuring. Kellogg's group last disclosed more than 40%. We don't yet know from the public agreement whether he is among those supporting it. I went through the mills, their estimated values, the debt, Kellogg's ownership and the securities existing shareholders are expected to receive. ๐—œ๐—ป ๐—บ๐˜† ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—”๐—š๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ, ๐—œ ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜€๐—ผ ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ธ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต ๐—•๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ, ๐—•๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—•๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ผ๐˜€ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ. Because I'd like to understand what someone buying Mercer today could actually end up owning. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐—–๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜€ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐˜€๐˜ $CMTG โ€” $๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—”๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€๐˜ $๐Ÿด.๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿต ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—•๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ CMTG closed yesterday at $1.11. At that price, the market valued the company's common equity at approximately $157 million, against more than $1.2 billion of reported common equity. I can understand why investors are skeptical. CMTG has troubled commercial real estate loans, properties taken back from borrowers, expensive financing and a $500 million HPS term loan. But something interesting is happening with the assets. The company has started resolving troubled loans and reducing financing. It also has an agreement to sell a distressed multifamily loan for $245 million, or 98% of its carrying value. Some of the values that investors have been questioning are now being tested against actual offers from buyers. When I wrote our Deep Value Report in August, I spent a lot of time on the individual properties. The Park in Santa Monica, Uptown Atlanta, Key Bridge and the Old Chicago Post Office all have very different recovery prospects. Old Chicago alone is worth understanding. CMTG has a $125 million mezzanine position sitting behind $830 million of mortgage debt. Even if the building is worth hundreds of millions, CMTG could still recover very little. Then you have JPMorgan's repo financing, HPS, property-level debt and the ongoing costs of working through these assets. I wanted to know how much of the reported book value could actually make its way back to common shareholders. Our August report goes through the assets, the financing and the possible recoveries individually, including our bear, base and bull valuations per share. With the Q3 results now available, I think it's worth revisiting that analysis. Some of the recent developments are encouraging, although the risks remain substantial. ๐—ข๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ณ๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜: Here: cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐— ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น $MERC โ€” ๐—”๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ $๐Ÿฌ.๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ. $๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜„ ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด. ๐—”๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฎ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ท๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ%. Mercer's restructuring is becoming one of the more interesting situations I've researched recently. The company has agreed to eliminate approximately 88% of its existing senior-note debt through an exchange for equity. It will also receive $400 million in new financing. And Peter Kellogg, whose reporting group last disclosed a 40.25% position, has been involved with Mercer for years. But there's something important about that new financing. The investors providing the $400 million receive $420 million in secured notes, plus 40% of the reorganized company's common equity and 40% of its convertible preferred equity. Existing shareholders are expected to receive 8.5% of the common and 3.5% of the preferred, before certain dilution. Meanwhile, management's newly disclosed projections show ๐—ข๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—˜๐—•๐—œ๐—ง๐——๐—” ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด $๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿด. If those projections are achieved, Mercer could be worth considerably more than today's stock-market capitalization. But most of that enterprise value would belong to a very different group of owners. I've examined the seven major operating asset groups, the new financing terms, the creditor priorities and three possible recovery scenarios for the existing shares. ๐— ๐˜† ๐—ณ๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐——๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—”๐—š๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—ด๐—ผ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฏ๐˜ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐— ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น $MERC โ€” ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ท๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜€ $๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿด ๐—˜๐—•๐—œ๐—ง๐——๐—”. The projections released with Mercer's restructuring agreement show Operating EBITDA recovering from approximately negative $4 million in 2026 to $171 million in 2027 and $311 million in 2028. Management also projects $132 million of unlevered free cash flow in 2028, before the new financing costs. At ๐Ÿฑ๐˜… ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ท๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿด ๐—˜๐—•๐—œ๐—ง๐——๐—”, the operating business would have an enterprise value of approximately $1.56 billion. But here's what I wanted to understand: existing shareholders are expected to retain only 8.5% of the new common equity before certain dilution, along with 3.5% of the new convertible preferred equity. So I went back through the mills, the debt, the financing terms and the ownership structure. I also calculated ๐—•๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ / ๐—•๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ / ๐—•๐˜‚๐—น๐—น recovery scenarios per existing share. Mercer could become a considerably healthier business. How much of that recovery will actually belong to today's shareholders? That's what I examine in my updated FRAGMENTS Special Situation Dossier. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ โ€” ๐—–๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ $CLW ๐—–๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿด.๐Ÿด% ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฎ ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด๐—น๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป. At the $13.69 share price used in our report, its equity is valued at approximately $221 million. Augustaโ€™s operating failures, the implementation of price increases and a management transition have put the company under renewed scrutiny. Our report examines those developments together with the financing agreement. We investigate what lenders can require, how maintenance affects funding needs and what different financing outcomes would mean for existing shareholders. We also revisit Augustaโ€™s economics before Clearwater bought it and examine the subsequent repairs and insurance settlements. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—น๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€, ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—บ. It is written for investors deciding whether the selloff warrants a position. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ข๐—ป๐—ฒ $CABO โ€” ๐—” ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜„ ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ, ๐—ฎ ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜ $๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿญ ๐— ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—˜๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐˜†. Cable One made an interesting disclosure on October 30. The board appointed Paul Keglevic, a former restructuring executive and CEO of Energy Future Holdings, and named him to a special committee evaluating strategic alternatives. He also served on the board of Frontier Communications during its Chapter 11 restructuring. With CABO closing Monday at approximately $5.50 a share, the entire common equity is valued at only $31 million. The company still operates a substantial broadband network, but its financing problems now involve billions of dollars, a disputed MBI acquisition and creditors with very different economic interests. I keep going back to the cash flow. During the first half of 2026, Cable One generated approximately $239 million in operating cash flow and spent $142 million on capital expenditures. That left about $97 million over six months, before debt principal repayments and acquisition payments. And the company is still losing broadband customers. The board's decision to evaluate strategic alternatives deserves attention. A refinancing, asset sales or a broader restructuring could produce very different outcomes for the people who own the common shares today. The appointment itself does not establish that Cable One will file for bankruptcy. Cable One reports its third-quarter results on November 5. I'll be particularly interested in whether the customer losses are slowing and how much cash the business is generating after capex. Our ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—”๐—š๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป provides the financial groundwork for examining these alternatives. We traced the MBI payments back to 2020, examined both businesses' cash generation, reconstructed the debt maturities and calculated what different equity settlements could mean for existing shareholders. We also revisited our earlier $24-per-share valuation and explained why it can no longer be treated as a reliable price target under the current financing uncertainty. With the board now considering strategic alternatives, those calculations have become even more relevant. The full investigation, including our valuation sensitivities and potential dilution scenarios, is available to paid subscribers. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป โ€” ๐—ข๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ $ONEW ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—•๐˜‚๐˜†๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—–๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—•๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต๐˜ ๐—ข๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ $๐Ÿต.๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ, ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜€ ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฒ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต๐—น๐˜† $๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿด ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป. ๐—œ๐—ป ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฎ ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฒ, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜† ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ $๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿต๐Ÿฎ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป. And here's something I find even more interesting. In 2024, OneWater was reportedly trying to buy MarineMax for $40 a share. MarineMax has since agreed to be acquired for $53 a share, while OneWater has started selling some of its own businesses. So I wanted to know what somebody could realistically pay to acquire OneWater today. There's approximately $352 million in corporate borrowing, another $405 million in inventory financing, and a substantial related-party arrangement involving Global Marine Finance. Anyone interested in buying the company would have to understand all of it. ๐—ช๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐˜€, ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€, ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต ๐—ณ๐—น๐—ผ๐˜„, ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ธ ๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฏ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€. Then we did the calculations ourselves. What could the individual businesses be worth today? What can OneWater realistically earn as an independent company? What would an acquisition cost, and how much could shareholders actually receive? ๐—ข๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—”๐—š๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ๐˜€, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ผ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ป ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ. If you're looking at ONEW as a deep value investment or a possible acquisition candidate, I think you'll appreciate how much there is to examine beyond its $158 million market capitalization. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—”๐—š๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง๐—ฆ. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ โ€” ๐—–๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฃ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ $CLW Clearwater Paper trades at a substantial discount to its reported assets: ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฏ.๐Ÿฒ๐Ÿต ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—น๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ in our report, against ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿต.๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—น๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ. The company owns three integrated paperboard mills supplying cups, food packaging and folding cartons. Our Deep Value Report examines what an investor actually owns at that price. We value each mill separately, investigate its maintenance requirements and account for the debt, retirement obligations and other costs that affect shareholdersโ€™ recovery. The full report includes ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€, ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ/๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ/๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฝ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ-๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜†๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜€, supported by a reconstruction of the companyโ€™s operating economics. For investors considering CLW, it provides the work needed to assess whether the discount offers enough protection. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป โ€” ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜… ๐—™๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ด๐˜€ $FUN Six Flags trades around $๐Ÿณ.๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ, while an activistโ€™s September 2025 proposal outlined potential value of $๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿต.๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ through a real-estate separation and an operating recovery. JANA has pushed for a sale. With results due Thursday, investors will get another look at the cash these properties generate after the summer season, ahead of the January payment to Georgiaโ€™s outside partners. Our Special Situation examines what a purchaser could pay for Cedar Point, Knottโ€™s Berry Farm, Canadaโ€™s Wonderland and the rest of the retained portfolio. The report includes ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ป ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜-๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—น๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜€ for land, hotels, marinas and campgrounds, with transaction comparisons and prices per acre, room and park visit. We test those estimates against cash generation and investment requirements, then work through debt, partnership agreements and sale expenses to calculate possible proceeds per share. Paid subscribers can read the complete property tables, valuation scenarios and financing analysis. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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๐— ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น $MERC โ€” $๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿณ๐Ÿฑ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฒ๐˜€. ๐—”๐—ป $๐Ÿด.๐Ÿฐ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ. On November 2, Mercer closed at $0.126 per share. A few hours later, the company announced an agreement to exchange approximately ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป $๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ in senior notes for equity. Existing shareholders are expected to receive ๐Ÿด.๐Ÿฑ% ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜„ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€ and ๐Ÿฏ.๐Ÿฑ% ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜„ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€. I've spent weeks going through Mercer's pulp mills, lumber operations, mass-timber business, debt agreements and major shareholders. The operating assets are worth examining. But the important question has changed. We now have to determine what the securities offered to existing shareholders are actually worth. I updated my Special Situation Dossier with the restructuring terms, individual asset valuations and the potential recovery for today's shareholders. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
๐Ÿค– Made with AI
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๐—”๐—ฑ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜… ($ASIX) โ€” ๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐—”๐—ฑ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜… ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜ $๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฑ.๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ ๐—ฎ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ, ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€๐˜‚๐˜€ $๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿต.๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿญ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ $๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ. Last week, the company announced its selection for $47.4 million in proposed USDA funding toward a $98.1 million ammonia expansion. The funding would cover less than half the budget. How the remaining investment is financed, and what it earns, will determine the benefit to shareholders. Our Deep Value Report values the existing plants site by site, using transactions and project costs, then checks those estimates against nine years of cash generation. We examine the maintenance bill, debt restrictions, tax credits and Hopewell lawsuit before working through the value per share. ๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—ฏ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—•๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ, ๐—•๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—•๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€, plus the additional savings a buyer would need to justify a takeover premium. The published ranges exclude the ammonia expansion, giving readers a valuation of the business already operating Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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๐ƒ๐ž๐ž๐ฉ ๐•๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ž ๐‘๐ž๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ โ€” ๐‹๐ข๐›๐ž๐ซ๐ญ๐ฒ ๐†๐ฅ๐จ๐›๐š๐ฅ ($LBTYA) Liberty Global trades around $๐Ÿ•.๐Ÿ•๐Ÿ•, against $๐Ÿ๐Ÿ•.๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ’ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐›๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐ฏ๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ž ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ก๐š๐ซ๐ž at June 30. Investors are paying roughly ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ— ๐œ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ž๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ. The company is now valued by the market at approximately $๐Ÿ.๐Ÿ”๐Ÿ“ ๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง, despite owning substantial interests in European telecom networks, infrastructure and private businesses. Recent transactions give us more information about those assets. European regulators cleared the โ‚ฌ๐Ÿ”๐Ÿ”๐Ÿ— ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง sale of VodafoneZiggo's Dutch towers, with proceeds intended to reduce debt. On October 29, Liberty's egg Power business announced an investment partnership with Tokyo Century covering 212 MW of renewable energy projects. Both developments are relevant to the valuation, although neither means the announced proceeds become freely available cash at Liberty's parent company. Liberty also owns two economic interests in Wyre, where potential buyers have been shortlisted, and is preparing Ziggo Group for a 2027 listing. On November 3, Liberty reports its third-quarter results. The corporate cash balance following July's โ‚ฌ1 billion payment to Vodafone deserves particular attention. In our ๐‹๐ข๐›๐ž๐ซ๐ญ๐ฒ ๐†๐ฅ๐จ๐›๐š๐ฅ ๐ƒ๐ž๐ž๐ฉ ๐•๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ž ๐‘๐ž๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ, we valued the major businesses separately, examined the debt and other obligations ahead of shareholders, and ๐ซ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ๐ž ๐ž๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ž๐ซ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ก๐š๐ซ๐ž ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐ž to estimate what investors are already paying for Wyre. Our model was originally built at $8.92 per share. The stock is now considerably lower, but the financing and realization risks remain. The full report includes our ๐๐ž๐š๐ซ, ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ž ๐š๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฏ๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ, the assumptions behind each business, refinancing sensitivities, and the price where we see a more reasonable margin of safety. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ƒ๐ž๐ž๐ฉ ๐•๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ž ๐‘๐ž๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐š๐ฏ๐š๐ข๐ฅ๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž ๐จ๐ง ๐…๐‘๐€๐†๐Œ๐„๐๐“๐’. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ โ€” ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐˜€ ($STLA) Stellantis trades around $๐Ÿฐ.๐Ÿฒ๐Ÿฐ per share. The entire companyโ€™s equity is valued at roughly โ‚ฌ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿฑ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป, while management is pursuing โ‚ฌ๐Ÿฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป in annualized efficiency improvements. Think about that for a moment. We're talking about a company that generated โ‚ฌ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿต.๐Ÿฎ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป in revenue during the first nine months of 2026, owns Jeep, Ram, Peugeot, Fiat and numerous manufacturing facilities, and is working on an efficiency program equivalent to more than half its current market capitalization. Of course, โ‚ฌ6 billion in cost reductions doesn't automatically mean โ‚ฌ6 billion in additional profit. Some savings will be absorbed by pricing pressure, warranty obligations, restructuring and the investments required to keep the business competitive. And the latest results give us plenty of reasons to be cautious. Stellantis consumed โ‚ฌ๐Ÿฐ.๐Ÿต๐Ÿฏ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป in Industrial free cash flow during the first nine months, despite generating nearly โ‚ฌ2 billion in adjusted operating profit. Still, I find the current valuation difficult to ignore. The company doesn't need to return to its extraordinary 2023 profitability for the shares to become interesting. But we need to understand how much of the operating recovery can eventually reach ordinary shareholders. That's where I spent most of my time in our Stellantis Deep Value Report. I examined the manufacturing assets, Industrial financial position, Financial Services, hybrid capital, debt, warranty obligations and regional profitability. I then worked through different operating outcomes to calculate what the business could be worth per share, including the possibility that the recovery disappoints. The October results give us new information to test those assumptions. The original valuation framework is still available in the report, although the latest cash consumption needs to be incorporated before revising our estimates. ๐—œ๐—ณ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚'๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฆ๐—ง๐—Ÿ๐—” ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐˜ ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ๐˜€ ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ, ๐—œ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ธ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚'๐—น๐—น ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ ๐—ฉ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ข๐—ป๐—ฒ $CABO โ€” $๐Ÿฑ.๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฒ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ. ๐—” $๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿด๐Ÿฌ ๐— ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—™๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐˜. Cable One closed Friday at $5.46, valuing its entire common equity at approximately $31 million. Yet the company is trying to complete a $480 million acquisition of the remaining 55% of Mega Broadband Investments, and one of its largest secured lenders has gone to federal court to stop the payment. According to Cablefax, the hearing scheduled for October 30 has been postponed to November 13. Meanwhile, Cable One is scheduled to report its third-quarter results on November 5. We should soon have a better understanding of how the operating business is performing while the financing dispute continues. I've spent quite a bit of time going through the MBI agreements, and the financial history is worth examining. Starting in 2020, MBI borrowed money, refinanced existing obligations and distributed substantial amounts to its owners. Additional payments followed in 2021 and 2024. Today, MBI has fewer customers, generates considerably less cash after capex and carries approximately $920 million in estimated net debt. Cable One is also negotiating a refinancing intended to address roughly $2.45 billion in obligations and approaching maturities. GTCR is involved in those discussions, and the eventual terms could substantially change the economics for existing shareholders. For our latest ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—”๐—š๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป, I went through the original purchase agreements, reconstructed the payments to MBI's owners and examined what both businesses actually generate after capital expenditures. We also analyzed the debt maturities, CoBank's legal challenge, the proposed borrowing costs and what could happen to the existing 5.67 million shares if GTCR receives equity. I even went back to our previous 24$-per-share valuation to examine how much of it survives under the financing assumptions now being discussed. Cable One owns substantial broadband assets. With the common equity valued at only $31 million, the potential value is certainly worth investigating. But I wanted to know what would actually remain for shareholders after the creditors, the MBI payment and any new financing arrangements are accounted for. ๐—ข๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ณ๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—”๐—š๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€, ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€, ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜‚๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ผ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฏ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€. Read the full investigation below. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐—ซ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜… โ€” ๐—”๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ $๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿณ ๐—ฎ๐—ณ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—น๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ณ ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜€ ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐˜๐˜„๐—ผ ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€ $XRX Xerox fell roughly 40% on Thursday and another 12% on Friday. Its annual cash forecast was cut from ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ $๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ผ $๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌโ€“๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป, dividends were suspended, and lenders were offered secured debt and shares to extend part of the 2028 repayment. Someone buying after that decline needs to understand both what Xerox owns and how much of its value is already owed to others. ๐—ข๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—”๐—š๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป. We examine Xerox and Lexmark, customer financing, property and software, then account for debt, retirement funding and potential new shares. We explain what STARTEEPO wants, how the warrants can reduce borrowing and what creditors receive under the proposed exchange. The update returns to our earlier valuation and shows which assumptions have become harder to defend. For anyone considering the stock, it provides a way to judge whether the remaining assets and future earnings offer enough value after the lenders have been paid. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป โ€” ๐—ข๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ $ONEW ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—•๐˜‚๐˜†๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—–๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—•๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต๐˜ ๐—ข๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ $๐Ÿต.๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿด, ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜€ ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฒ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต๐—น๐˜† $๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฒ๐Ÿฌ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป. ๐—œ๐—ป ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฎ ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฒ, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜† ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ $๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿต๐Ÿฎ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป. What makes this particularly interesting is that OneWater was reportedly trying to acquire MarineMax for $40 a share in 2024. MarineMax has since agreed to be acquired for $53 a share, while OneWater has started selling some of its own businesses. I wanted to understand what happened to those acquisitions and, more importantly, what the businesses still owned by OneWater could be worth today. We examined the dealerships, distribution operations, acquisitions, asset disposals, cash generation and financing arrangements. There's also a substantial related-party inventory arrangement involving Global Marine Finance that deserves serious attention. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ด ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐—บ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€ ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ณ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ธ๐˜€. Our complete FRAGMENTS investigation includes ten financial tables, three operating scenarios, an independent cash valuation and our own calculations of what a potential acquirer could afford to pay per share. ๐—œ๐—ณ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚'๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ข๐—ก๐—˜๐—ช ๐—ฎ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ถ๐˜๐˜†, ๐—œ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ธ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚'๐—น๐—น ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด. Full report on FRAGMENTS. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ข๐—ป๐—ฒ $CABO โ€” $๐Ÿฑ.๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฎ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ. ๐—” $๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿด๐Ÿฌ ๐— ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—–๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐—™๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐˜. Cable One's entire common equity is now worth approximately ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—น๐˜† $๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฌ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป. This afternoon, a federal court is scheduled to hear arguments over a $480 million payment the company wants to make for the remaining 55% of MBI. One of its largest secured lenders is trying to stop it. I've spent quite a bit of time going through the agreements, and the history is worth examining. Since 2020, substantial amounts of money have been distributed to MBI's owners, some financed with additional borrowing. The company now has fewer customers, weaker cash generation and approximately $920 million in estimated net debt. Meanwhile, Cable One is negotiating a refinancing involving billions of dollars in obligations. GTCR is involved both through the investors entitled to the MBI payment and in the proposed financing. ๐—”๐˜ $๐Ÿฑ.๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฎ, ๐˜„๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜†๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด? For our ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—”๐—š๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป, we reconstructed the transactions going back to 2020, examined what both businesses actually generate after capital expenditures, and worked through the debt maturities and proposed financing. We also revisited our previous ๐—ฃ$๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฐ-๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ-๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป and calculated what could happen to existing shareholders if GTCR receives equity. There's a substantial broadband business underneath all this. Whether its value ultimately reaches the current shareholders depends on terms that are still being negotiated. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜, ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜‚๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜†๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜€, ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฏ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€. Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโ€ฆ
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