
FRAGMENTS finds the pieces the market leaves behind โ hidden assets, neglected balance sheets, broken stories โ and puts them together before the cro #Fragments
Joined June 2017
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐๐น๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ง๐ฟ๐๐๐ $CMTG โ ๐ค๐ฏ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ
CMTG was up roughly ๐๐ณ% ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด this morning after closing at ๐ฆ๐ญ.๐ญ๐ญ yesterday. The company released its Q3 results last night, reporting ๐ฆ๐ด.๐ฐ๐ต ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ.
We published our Deep Value Report on CMTG back in August, when the stock had fallen to $1.77 against $8.58 of reported book value. I went back through the new numbers this morning to see how the actual recoveries compared with our estimates.
During Q3, CMTG resolved ๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ฌ๐ต.๐ฑ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ผ๐ณ ๐น๐ผ๐ฎ๐ป๐, followed by another ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฒ๐ด.๐ณ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป in full repayments during October. Financings outstanding have also come down substantially, and no additional loans were added to the watchlist during the quarter.
One transaction caught my attention. CMTG has agreed to sell a troubled multifamily loan for ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฑ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป, about 98% of its carrying value. The company hasn't identified the property, but the figures appear to match The Park in Santa Monica, which we analyzed in August.
We had estimated ๐ฆ๐ญ๐ด๐ฑโ๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป for that exposure in our base case. If this is indeed The Park and the sale closes at $245 million, we were too conservative. I'm happy to acknowledge that.
There are still plenty of risks. CMTG has $566.2 million of CECL reserves, roughly 40% of its loan portfolio by carrying value remains on non-accrual, and the ๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐บ ๐น๐ผ๐ฎ๐ป is still outstanding.
I'm encouraged by the recent transactions, particularly because we're starting to see what buyers are actually willing to pay for some of these assets. But I still want to see how much cash remains after the lenders, financing costs and other expenses have been paid.
Our original ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ goes through The Park, Uptown Atlanta, Key Bridge, Old Chicago, the REO portfolio and the debt structure in detail.
Here: cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐ ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น $MERC โ ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ $๐ฌ.๐ฎ๐ฌ, ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐ฃ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น๐ผ๐ด๐ด ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ฌ% ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐.
That combination got my attention.
Kellogg's last ownership filing showed 26.95 million shares, representing 40.25% of Mercer. He was still buying in June, around $0.90 per share.
Now Mercer has announced an agreement to exchange approximately $1.125 billion of senior notes for equity and raise $400 million in new financing.
The company owns four pulp mills, lumber operations, mass-timber facilities and power-generating assets. But the creditors are negotiating for most of the ownership.
Here's what I'm particularly curious about.
Shareholders representing approximately 50% of Mercer have agreed to support the restructuring. Kellogg's group last disclosed more than 40%. We don't yet know from the public agreement whether he is among those supporting it.
I went through the mills, their estimated values, the debt, Kellogg's ownership and the securities existing shareholders are expected to receive.
๐๐ป ๐บ๐ ๐๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ, ๐ ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ผ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ ๐๐ต๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ, ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐๐น๐น ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ผ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฒ๐
๐ถ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ.
Because I'd like to understand what someone buying Mercer today could actually end up owning.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐๐น๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ง๐ฟ๐๐๐ $CMTG โ $๐ญ.๐ญ๐ญ ๐ฎ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ $๐ด.๐ฐ๐ต ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ
CMTG closed yesterday at $1.11. At that price, the market valued the company's common equity at approximately $157 million, against more than $1.2 billion of reported common equity.
I can understand why investors are skeptical. CMTG has troubled commercial real estate loans, properties taken back from borrowers, expensive financing and a $500 million HPS term loan.
But something interesting is happening with the assets.
The company has started resolving troubled loans and reducing financing. It also has an agreement to sell a distressed multifamily loan for $245 million, or 98% of its carrying value. Some of the values that investors have been questioning are now being tested against actual offers from buyers.
When I wrote our Deep Value Report in August, I spent a lot of time on the individual properties. The Park in Santa Monica, Uptown Atlanta, Key Bridge and the Old Chicago Post Office all have very different recovery prospects.
Old Chicago alone is worth understanding. CMTG has a $125 million mezzanine position sitting behind $830 million of mortgage debt. Even if the building is worth hundreds of millions, CMTG could still recover very little.
Then you have JPMorgan's repo financing, HPS, property-level debt and the ongoing costs of working through these assets.
I wanted to know how much of the reported book value could actually make its way back to common shareholders. Our August report goes through the assets, the financing and the possible recoveries individually, including our bear, base and bull valuations per share.
With the Q3 results now available, I think it's worth revisiting that analysis. Some of the recent developments are encouraging, although the risks remain substantial.
๐ข๐๐ฟ ๐ณ๐๐น๐น ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐:
Here: cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐ ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น $MERC โ ๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ $๐ฌ.๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ. $๐ฐ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ณ๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐ป๐ด. ๐๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฎ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ท๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ฌ%.
Mercer's restructuring is becoming one of the more interesting situations I've researched recently.
The company has agreed to eliminate approximately 88% of its existing senior-note debt through an exchange for equity. It will also receive $400 million in new financing.
And Peter Kellogg, whose reporting group last disclosed a 40.25% position, has been involved with Mercer for years.
But there's something important about that new financing.
The investors providing the $400 million receive $420 million in secured notes, plus 40% of the reorganized company's common equity and 40% of its convertible preferred equity.
Existing shareholders are expected to receive 8.5% of the common and 3.5% of the preferred, before certain dilution.
Meanwhile, management's newly disclosed projections show ๐ข๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด $๐ฏ๐ญ๐ญ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ด.
If those projections are achieved, Mercer could be worth considerably more than today's stock-market capitalization. But most of that enterprise value would belong to a very different group of owners.
I've examined the seven major operating asset groups, the new financing terms, the creditor priorities and three possible recovery scenarios for the existing shares.
๐ ๐ ๐ณ๐๐น๐น ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง๐ฆ ๐ด๐ผ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐ ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น $MERC โ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ท๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ $๐ฏ๐ญ๐ญ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ด ๐๐๐๐ง๐๐.
The projections released with Mercer's restructuring agreement show Operating EBITDA recovering from approximately negative $4 million in 2026 to $171 million in 2027 and $311 million in 2028.
Management also projects $132 million of unlevered free cash flow in 2028, before the new financing costs.
At ๐ฑ๐
๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ท๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ด ๐๐๐๐ง๐๐, the operating business would have an enterprise value of approximately $1.56 billion.
But here's what I wanted to understand: existing shareholders are expected to retain only 8.5% of the new common equity before certain dilution, along with 3.5% of the new convertible preferred equity.
So I went back through the mills, the debt, the financing terms and the ownership structure. I also calculated ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ / ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ / ๐๐๐น๐น recovery scenarios per existing share.
Mercer could become a considerably healthier business. How much of that recovery will actually belong to today's shareholders?
That's what I examine in my updated FRAGMENTS Special Situation Dossier.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ โ ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ $CLW
๐๐น๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ณ๐ฒ๐น๐น ๐ฎ๐ด.๐ด% ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. At the $13.69 share price used in our report, its equity is valued at approximately $221 million. Augustaโs operating failures, the implementation of price increases and a management transition have put the company under renewed scrutiny.
Our report examines those developments together with the financing agreement. We investigate what lenders can require, how maintenance affects funding needs and what different financing outcomes would mean for existing shareholders.
We also revisit Augustaโs economics before Clearwater bought it and examine the subsequent repairs and insurance settlements. ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐๐น๐น ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ฐ๐น๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐บ. It is written for investors deciding whether the selloff warrants a position.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐ข๐ป๐ฒ $CABO โ ๐ ๐ก๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ, ๐ฎ ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ผ๐บ๐บ๐ถ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ $๐ฏ๐ญ ๐ ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐.
Cable One made an interesting disclosure on October 30. The board appointed Paul Keglevic, a former restructuring executive and CEO of Energy Future Holdings, and named him to a special committee evaluating strategic alternatives. He also served on the board of Frontier Communications during its Chapter 11 restructuring.
With CABO closing Monday at approximately $5.50 a share, the entire common equity is valued at only $31 million. The company still operates a substantial broadband network, but its financing problems now involve billions of dollars, a disputed MBI acquisition and creditors with very different economic interests.
I keep going back to the cash flow. During the first half of 2026, Cable One generated approximately $239 million in operating cash flow and spent $142 million on capital expenditures. That left about $97 million over six months, before debt principal repayments and acquisition payments. And the company is still losing broadband customers.
The board's decision to evaluate strategic alternatives deserves attention. A refinancing, asset sales or a broader restructuring could produce very different outcomes for the people who own the common shares today. The appointment itself does not establish that Cable One will file for bankruptcy.
Cable One reports its third-quarter results on November 5. I'll be particularly interested in whether the customer losses are slowing and how much cash the business is generating after capex.
Our ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป provides the financial groundwork for examining these alternatives. We traced the MBI payments back to 2020, examined both businesses' cash generation, reconstructed the debt maturities and calculated what different equity settlements could mean for existing shareholders.
We also revisited our earlier $24-per-share valuation and explained why it can no longer be treated as a reliable price target under the current financing uncertainty.
With the board now considering strategic alternatives, those calculations have become even more relevant.
The full investigation, including our valuation sensitivities and potential dilution scenarios, is available to paid subscribers.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป โ ๐ข๐ป๐ฒ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ $ONEW
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ง๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐
๐ข๐ป๐ฒ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ $๐ต.๐ฑ๐ฌ, ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐น๐ $๐ญ๐ฑ๐ด ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. ๐๐ป ๐ณ๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ ๐ฎ๐น๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ, ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฑ $๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป.
And here's something I find even more interesting. In 2024, OneWater was reportedly trying to buy MarineMax for $40 a share. MarineMax has since agreed to be acquired for $53 a share, while OneWater has started selling some of its own businesses.
So I wanted to know what somebody could realistically pay to acquire OneWater today.
There's approximately $352 million in corporate borrowing, another $405 million in inventory financing, and a substantial related-party arrangement involving Global Marine Finance. Anyone interested in buying the company would have to understand all of it.
๐ช๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ต๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ฝ๐, ๐ฑ๐ถ๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฏ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐, ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ต ๐ณ๐น๐ผ๐, ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ป๐ธ ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐.
Then we did the calculations ourselves.
What could the individual businesses be worth today? What can OneWater realistically earn as an independent company? What would an acquisition cost, and how much could shareholders actually receive?
๐ข๐๐ฟ ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง๐ฆ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐น๐๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ณ๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ๐, ๐๐ต๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ผ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ผ๐๐ป ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ.
If you're looking at ONEW as a deep value investment or a possible acquisition candidate, I think you'll appreciate how much there is to examine beyond its $158 million market capitalization.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐๐น๐น ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐น๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง๐ฆ.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ โ ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ $CLW
Clearwater Paper trades at a substantial discount to its reported assets: ๐ญ๐ฏ.๐ฒ๐ต ๐ฑ๐ผ๐น๐น๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ in our report, against ๐ฐ๐ต.๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐น๐น๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ. The company owns three integrated paperboard mills supplying cups, food packaging and folding cartons.
Our Deep Value Report examines what an investor actually owns at that price. We value each mill separately, investigate its maintenance requirements and account for the debt, retirement obligations and other costs that affect shareholdersโ recovery.
The full report includes ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ/๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ/๐ฏ๐๐น๐น ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ-๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐น๐๐๐ถ๐, supported by a reconstruction of the companyโs operating economics. For investors considering CLW, it provides the work needed to assess whether the discount offers enough protection.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป โ ๐ฆ๐ถ๐
๐๐น๐ฎ๐ด๐ $FUN
Six Flags trades around $๐ณ.๐ฑ๐ฌ, while an activistโs September 2025 proposal outlined potential value of $๐ฏ๐ต.๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ through a real-estate separation and an operating recovery. JANA has pushed for a sale. With results due Thursday, investors will get another look at the cash these properties generate after the summer season, ahead of the January payment to Georgiaโs outside partners.
Our Special Situation examines what a purchaser could pay for Cedar Point, Knottโs Berry Farm, Canadaโs Wonderland and the rest of the retained portfolio.
The report includes ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ผ๐๐ป ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐-๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐น๐น๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ for land, hotels, marinas and campgrounds, with transaction comparisons and prices per acre, room and park visit. We test those estimates against cash generation and investment requirements, then work through debt, partnership agreements and sale expenses to calculate possible proceeds per share. Paid subscribers can read the complete property tables, valuation scenarios and financing analysis.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐ ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น $MERC โ $๐ญ.๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐. ๐๐ป $๐ด.๐ฐ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ.
On November 2, Mercer closed at $0.126 per share. A few hours later, the company announced an agreement to exchange approximately ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป $๐ญ.๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฑ in senior notes for equity.
Existing shareholders are expected to receive ๐ด.๐ฑ% ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐บ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ and ๐ฏ.๐ฑ% ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐.
I've spent weeks going through Mercer's pulp mills, lumber operations, mass-timber business, debt agreements and major shareholders.
The operating assets are worth examining. But the important question has changed. We now have to determine what the securities offered to existing shareholders are actually worth.
I updated my Special Situation Dossier with the restructuring terms, individual asset valuations and the potential recovery for today's shareholders.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
๐ค Made with AI
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐๐ฑ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฆ๐ถ๐
($ASIX) โ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐
๐๐ฑ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฆ๐ถ๐
๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ $๐ญ๐ฑ.๐ฑ๐ฌ ๐ฎ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ, ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐๐ $๐ฎ๐ต.๐ฑ๐ญ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ $๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ถ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ.
Last week, the company announced its selection for $47.4 million in proposed USDA funding toward a $98.1 million ammonia expansion. The funding would cover less than half the budget. How the remaining investment is financed, and what it earns, will determine the benefit to shareholders.
Our Deep Value Report values the existing plants site by site, using transactions and project costs, then checks those estimates against nine years of cash generation. We examine the maintenance bill, debt restrictions, tax credits and Hopewell lawsuit before working through the value per share.
๐ฆ๐๐ฏ๐๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ, ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐๐น๐น ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, plus the additional savings a buyer would need to justify a takeover premium. The published ranges exclude the ammonia expansion, giving readers a valuation of the business already operating
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ โ ๐๐ข๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ ($LBTYA)
Liberty Global trades around $๐.๐๐, against $๐๐.๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ at June 30. Investors are paying roughly ๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
The company is now valued by the market at approximately $๐.๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง, despite owning substantial interests in European telecom networks, infrastructure and private businesses.
Recent transactions give us more information about those assets. European regulators cleared the โฌ๐๐๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง sale of VodafoneZiggo's Dutch towers, with proceeds intended to reduce debt. On October 29, Liberty's egg Power business announced an investment partnership with Tokyo Century covering 212 MW of renewable energy projects.
Both developments are relevant to the valuation, although neither means the announced proceeds become freely available cash at Liberty's parent company.
Liberty also owns two economic interests in Wyre, where potential buyers have been shortlisted, and is preparing Ziggo Group for a 2027 listing.
On November 3, Liberty reports its third-quarter results. The corporate cash balance following July's โฌ1 billion payment to Vodafone deserves particular attention.
In our ๐๐ข๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ, we valued the major businesses separately, examined the debt and other obligations ahead of shareholders, and ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ to estimate what investors are already paying for Wyre.
Our model was originally built at $8.92 per share. The stock is now considerably lower, but the financing and realization risks remain.
The full report includes our ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐๐๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ, the assumptions behind each business, refinancing sensitivities, and the price where we see a more reasonable margin of safety.
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ โ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ ($STLA)
Stellantis trades around $๐ฐ.๐ฒ๐ฐ per share. The entire companyโs equity is valued at roughly โฌ๐ญ๐ญ.๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป, while management is pursuing โฌ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป in annualized efficiency improvements.
Think about that for a moment. We're talking about a company that generated โฌ๐ญ๐ญ๐ต.๐ฎ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป in revenue during the first nine months of 2026, owns Jeep, Ram, Peugeot, Fiat and numerous manufacturing facilities, and is working on an efficiency program equivalent to more than half its current market capitalization.
Of course, โฌ6 billion in cost reductions doesn't automatically mean โฌ6 billion in additional profit. Some savings will be absorbed by pricing pressure, warranty obligations, restructuring and the investments required to keep the business competitive.
And the latest results give us plenty of reasons to be cautious. Stellantis consumed โฌ๐ฐ.๐ต๐ฏ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป in Industrial free cash flow during the first nine months, despite generating nearly โฌ2 billion in adjusted operating profit.
Still, I find the current valuation difficult to ignore. The company doesn't need to return to its extraordinary 2023 profitability for the shares to become interesting. But we need to understand how much of the operating recovery can eventually reach ordinary shareholders.
That's where I spent most of my time in our Stellantis Deep Value Report. I examined the manufacturing assets, Industrial financial position, Financial Services, hybrid capital, debt, warranty obligations and regional profitability. I then worked through different operating outcomes to calculate what the business could be worth per share, including the possibility that the recovery disappoints.
The October results give us new information to test those assumptions. The original valuation framework is still available in the report, although the latest cash consumption needs to be incorporated before revising our estimates.
๐๐ณ ๐๐ผ๐'๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฆ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฝ, ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ธ ๐๐ผ๐'๐น๐น ๐ณ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐๐น๐น ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ต ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐ข๐ป๐ฒ $CABO โ $๐ฑ.๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฎ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ. ๐ $๐ฐ๐ด๐ฌ ๐ ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐.
Cable One closed Friday at $5.46, valuing its entire common equity at approximately $31 million. Yet the company is trying to complete a $480 million acquisition of the remaining 55% of Mega Broadband Investments, and one of its largest secured lenders has gone to federal court to stop the payment.
According to Cablefax, the hearing scheduled for October 30 has been postponed to November 13. Meanwhile, Cable One is scheduled to report its third-quarter results on November 5. We should soon have a better understanding of how the operating business is performing while the financing dispute continues.
I've spent quite a bit of time going through the MBI agreements, and the financial history is worth examining. Starting in 2020, MBI borrowed money, refinanced existing obligations and distributed substantial amounts to its owners. Additional payments followed in 2021 and 2024. Today, MBI has fewer customers, generates considerably less cash after capex and carries approximately $920 million in estimated net debt.
Cable One is also negotiating a refinancing intended to address roughly $2.45 billion in obligations and approaching maturities. GTCR is involved in those discussions, and the eventual terms could substantially change the economics for existing shareholders.
For our latest ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป, I went through the original purchase agreements, reconstructed the payments to MBI's owners and examined what both businesses actually generate after capital expenditures.
We also analyzed the debt maturities, CoBank's legal challenge, the proposed borrowing costs and what could happen to the existing 5.67 million shares if GTCR receives equity.
I even went back to our previous 24$-per-share valuation to examine how much of it survives under the financing assumptions now being discussed.
Cable One owns substantial broadband assets. With the common equity valued at only $31 million, the potential value is certainly worth investigating. But I wanted to know what would actually remain for shareholders after the creditors, the MBI payment and any new financing arrangements are accounted for.
๐ข๐๐ฟ ๐ณ๐๐น๐น ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฒ๐
๐ฎ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐พ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐ฐ๐๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฑ๐ถ๐น๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ผ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐น๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐.
Read the full investigation below.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐ซ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ผ๐
โ ๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ $๐ญ.๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐น๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐น๐ณ ๐ถ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐๐ผ ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ $XRX
Xerox fell roughly 40% on Thursday and another 12% on Friday. Its annual cash forecast was cut from ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ $๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฌ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ผ $๐ฑ๐ฌโ๐ญ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป, dividends were suspended, and lenders were offered secured debt and shares to extend part of the 2028 repayment. Someone buying after that decline needs to understand both what Xerox owns and how much of its value is already owed to others.
๐ข๐๐ฟ ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง๐ฆ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐ฐ๐๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. We examine Xerox and Lexmark, customer financing, property and software, then account for debt, retirement funding and potential new shares. We explain what STARTEEPO wants, how the warrants can reduce borrowing and what creditors receive under the proposed exchange.
The update returns to our earlier valuation and shows which assumptions have become harder to defend. For anyone considering the stock, it provides a way to judge whether the remaining assets and future earnings offer enough value after the lenders have been paid.
Here:cundilldeepvalue.substack.coโฆ
FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป โ ๐ข๐ป๐ฒ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ $ONEW
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ง๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐
๐ข๐ป๐ฒ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ $๐ต.๐ฑ๐ด, ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐น๐ $๐ญ๐ฒ๐ฌ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. ๐๐ป ๐ณ๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฎ ๐ฎ๐น๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ, ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฑ $๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป.
What makes this particularly interesting is that OneWater was reportedly trying to acquire MarineMax for $40 a share in 2024. MarineMax has since agreed to be acquired for $53 a share, while OneWater has started selling some of its own businesses.
I wanted to understand what happened to those acquisitions and, more importantly, what the businesses still owned by OneWater could be worth today.
We examined the dealerships, distribution operations, acquisitions, asset disposals, cash generation and financing arrangements. There's also a substantial related-party inventory arrangement involving Global Marine Finance that deserves serious attention.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด ๐พ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ ๐ต๐ผ๐ ๐บ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ป๐ธ๐.
Our complete FRAGMENTS investigation includes ten financial tables, three operating scenarios, an independent cash valuation and our own calculations of what a potential acquirer could afford to pay per share.
๐๐ณ ๐๐ผ๐'๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ ๐ข๐ก๐๐ช ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐๐ป๐ถ๐๐, ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ธ ๐๐ผ๐'๐น๐น ๐ณ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ต ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด.
Full report on FRAGMENTS.
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FRAGMENTS Value retweeted
๐๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐ข๐ป๐ฒ $CABO โ $๐ฑ.๐ฏ๐ฎ ๐ฎ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ. ๐ $๐ฐ๐ด๐ฌ ๐ ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐.
Cable One's entire common equity is now worth approximately ๐ผ๐ป๐น๐ $๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ผ๐ป. This afternoon, a federal court is scheduled to hear arguments over a $480 million payment the company wants to make for the remaining 55% of MBI. One of its largest secured lenders is trying to stop it.
I've spent quite a bit of time going through the agreements, and the history is worth examining. Since 2020, substantial amounts of money have been distributed to MBI's owners, some financed with additional borrowing. The company now has fewer customers, weaker cash generation and approximately $920 million in estimated net debt.
Meanwhile, Cable One is negotiating a refinancing involving billions of dollars in obligations. GTCR is involved both through the investors entitled to the MBI payment and in the proposed financing.
๐๐ $๐ฑ.๐ฏ๐ฎ, ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฏ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด?
For our ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฆ๐ถ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป, we reconstructed the transactions going back to 2020, examined what both businesses actually generate after capital expenditures, and worked through the debt maturities and proposed financing.
We also revisited our previous ๐ฃ$๐ฎ๐ฐ-๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ-๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป and calculated what could happen to existing shareholders if GTCR receives equity.
There's a substantial broadband business underneath all this. Whether its value ultimately reaches the current shareholders depends on terms that are still being negotiated.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐๐น๐น ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐, ๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐น๐๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐น๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐น๐๐๐ถ๐, ๐ถ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐น๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐.
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