distillation 2.0
my spidey senses are telling me the labs are, as we speak, using unguardrailed versions of their unreleased models to systematically reverse-engineer ALL of the internet’s software, apps, and games, then feeding the reconstructed source code straight into their training pipelines while simultaneously building guardrails to ladder-pull the rest of us
One of the best macro setups of my lifetime is forming - a bet I’ve waited 20 years to put on. The final leg of the end…the end of the post WW2 economic and geopolitical framework. Interest rates will rise gratuitously. The US rates will too, but that’s a harder and more complex bet, sjnce USD and treasuries act as a safehaven asset jn crisis.
I’m researching sovereigns right now. Will likely use a mix of bond shorts and CDS to short a bunch of european countries and maybe some elsewhere.
Timeframe on this is likely a ~2-4 year bet (still working on that), so sizing and holding costs are critical.
The why: the world (and sovereigns) are overindebted with worsening fundamentals. No one even has a hypothesis, not even a guess, as to how the situation can be resolved without crisis. To the extent AI growth helps offset the problems, the borrowing of AI companies further competes with sovereign debt, pushing yields higher still.
Politically, voters upset about worsening cost of living (and soon, rising unemployment), demand help, and the easiest (and most practical) help politicians can give (short term) is printing money for more handouts and services. Or…they engage in more deficit spending which further pushes up yields.
hallucination and dishonesty might be a more serious problem than we think
if we cant solve it now, what will we do when model outputs are too complex for the smartest humans to understand
software is not dead
software as a service is
hard to define what comes next for small entrepreneurs
for most businesses, unless you plan to stay broke and obscure
you'd better learn the art of being seen
"John Wick 3" and "Billions" star Asia Kate Dillon says acting jobs have "all but diminished” after 11 years in the industry, so they are now seeking customer service work.
"I love customer service. I love creating welcoming environments for people to relax in and connect with each other. I love food and drink. I am passionate and curious, and a great teammate. I imagine the hurdle to reentry will be learning the new POS systems, but I’m a quick study. I’m available for part time, night and weekend work."
variety.com/2026/tv/news/bil…
