πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg) header
πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² (@FreemyerGreg) profile picture

Obsessed with all things Energy; Data guy; $EOSE is my retirement plan (I study it); $1.50 DCA; $100 target for 2030;

Joined May 2021
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$EOSE Roadmap to $40+ – Redbird Unlocked, Catalysts Loading! Ultra-bull PT $40+ in sight. News drought shattered TODAY: Bimergen advances Redbird to Ready to Build (RTB) stage with JDA approval + Eos Z3 selection (permitting & interconnection cleared, financing next). Milestones I believe drive us there: β˜‘οΈ Bimergen gets JDA approval & permit advancement for the 400 MWh Redbird project (announced TODAY – Eos Z3 selected, milestone‑based capital now flowing!) ⬜ Bimergen publicly places a firm order for the Redbird project ⬜ Q4 earnings β€” Q4 revenue ~$95mm ⬜ Backlog exceeds $1B ⬜ 2026 guidance $500mm–$750mm ⬜ Frontier makes it through the next gate (early spring) with all 11 GWh intact ⬜ The 2.4 GWh NYC Navy Pier project is announced ⬜ NextEra announces they are going to use a significant amount of $EOSE BESS starting immediately ⬜ IEP announces the Robena Data Center project has achieved FID (tenants + full funding secured) ⬜ A large Z3 Indensity order is announced ⬜ Q1 earnings (early May) β€” ~$125mm for Q1 ⬜ Line 2 imminent SAT at Marshall ⬜ Line 3 announcedUltra-bull PT $40+ in sight. ⬜ Backlog exceeds $3B Redbird box checked β€” next one incoming? $EOSE to $40+ feels inevitable if these hit. #EOSE #BESS #ZincBattery #EnergyStorage
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Final thoughts on the 3Q Eos earnings call. Joe was reading from a script (something he doesn't like to do) and talking very fast. He sounded stressed, fearful, and even angry at times. The emotion was palpable. But, I guess that's good. He is often in salesman mode, but he wasn't this time. He was being very careful about he said and what he was committing to going forward. He mentioned the 3.5 GWh of late-stage opportunities that we will apparently hear more about by EOY, but played it down in terms of probability of conversion after the experience of NYSERDA. To me, that marks a significant, but uncertain, and asymmetric inflection point that investors can act on. The cost out plan is proceeding on plan. Alessandro is doing a really good job of seeing things through. His focus and discipline are paying off, and I'm confident he will see Gross Margin to zero by EOY or sometime in January, by hook or by crook. The costs for DawnOS "upgrades" should not be understated. These costs aren't being booked as warranty claims; warranty claims presumably come after a system is commissioned, and the customer complains about a deficiency, and then the company has to come in after the fact to fix it. The upgrade costs instead are part of getting the battery systems to the various performance guarantees for a successful commissioning sign off . The "upgrade" costs are being captured in COGS and commissioning, and it's significant. In 2024/2025, the company was delivering cubes that really weren't commercially ready. I see it as R&D that the customer didn't sign up for. Are whole cubes being replaced in some cases? Yes. This is not necessarily a consequence of cubes having poor workmanship. Some older designs were simply inadequate, insofar as their ability to accommodate the connections and wiring required by DawnOS. And DawnOS is required for meeting the 75% RTE, and the capacity and reliability metrics. Some software updates were previously scheduled for October 26. I don't know how that actually went, but I think about it. Some circuit board updates were scheduled for later in the year. "Upgrades" for all this will continue into Q1 or even Q2. When they get all this behind them, the cost outs, imo, will be significant. They are currently manufacturing and delivering some cubes that aren't included in the revenue recognition. That will continue over the next 3 quarters. Production excellence does not completely equate to increased revenue right now. When they get all that behind them, and with 2 lines under one roof, and eventually filling out that building with 4 lines, those cost absorptions will be even more profound. At this point they have field data from smaller systems that are compelling. But larger systems have still not been commissioned with the latest tech and provably demonstrated that performance at larger scale. In the meantime, they are apparently seeking financing for some very large systems going into 2027. it's a difficult situation. I hope they can pull it off. I think they will.
$EOSE "From a CapEx standpoint, we start to see in the 4th quarter the CapEx spend moderating down versus the earlier part of the year. In the coming quarters, we will have an even lower run rate from the plant. Overall, we feel comfortable with the cash that we have on our balance sheet, and again, the other sources of cash that we can tap into until we are going to get to profitable." CapEx has been about $35m per quarter, and based on this comment can expect to see it wind down starting Q4. Other sources of cash include: Remaining DOE Tranche 2: $20m PA and County Grants: $24 Q3 PTCs: $39m Cerberus Revolver: $105m That sounds like a capital raise will not be needed to get to profitability, if the cost out plan stays on track. Any additional capital raise I suspect would be to extent FPUSA's runway again if needed. To that point, they discussed 3.5 GWh of late-stage opportunities πŸ’€, more than today's entire backlog, that they're waiting to hear on. These seem to relate to California, Virginia, and Massachusetts. They linked the cadence of CapEx spend in 2027 to the outcomes of those. I am not sure why unless Lines 3+ come into play. Slide 9 did list "Remaining DOE Loan for Lines 3 & 4" as $80m of potential additional liquidity. Maybe DOE has signaled that the outcomes of those opportunities provide an opportunity to amend the DOE agreement again to include 3+ lines. πŸ€·β€β™‚οΈ
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$EOSE Financial / production summary I've updated this in 2 major ways since yesterday: - I am reflecting both the 85% of ASP as current revenue and the 100% ASP value - The company doesn't often tell us MWh shipped, but this time they told us 390MWh shipped. To make the PTC work out, I had to drop the active minerals credit and use a pure $45/KWh. I moved to $45/KWh for all 2026 quarters. Not sure I should, but it makes the ratio of cube output increase closer to the specified 23% than if I don't. This is version 4 of the spreadsheet.
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$eose FG inventory Q: What do you think about Eos ending Q3 with $2.1mm of finished goods inventory? That's half a week of production left sitting at the shipping dock. Pessimist: they didn't have a willing customer to ship those 13 or so cubes to. Sad, but true. Optimist: those aren't Cubes. They are the first production Indensity Cores. Already building a small FG inventory as they wait for that first Indensity order to sign on the dotted line. After all, they have that 250 MWh Indensity project coming soon.
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
Oil production in Texas and Louisiana since 1980. It's all about the shale boom.
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
CHART OF THE DAY: Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s antipathy to solar and wind power, net US renewable power *capacity* additions will hit a record in 2027, per new @IEA forecast. The 2026-2031 period has been revised higher significantly (from a year ago).
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
Thanks to America’s unrivaled entrepreneurial spirit and dynamism, the re-industrialization and re-privatization of the American economy are gathering extraordinary force. Today’s jobs report shows our great American companies have created nearly 400,000 private-sector jobs in the past three months. Manufacturing employment has now risen by over 100,000 in 2026 alone. We are fundamentally rebalancing the American economy, away from government-led growth and toward private investment, productive employment, and the revival of our industrial base.
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
Day - 714 Solved a heap + scheduling problem today ⚑ Used two priority queues to manage available and busy servers, assigning tasks based on weight, index, and availability time. #1000DaysOfCode #LeetCode #DSA #Python #Heap
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$eose This comment is worthy of note. Joe implies Line 1 is already at Thorn Hill and re-assembled! Is it really going to take 4+ months to achieve SAT on the reconfigured line?
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I too think this is accurate. I calculate over 800 cubes shipped in Q2+Q3, so a lot of current generation DawnOS hardware/software has shipped from the factory, but COD might still be a year away for those cubes. But field upgrades for older cubes have been occurring for at least the last 6 months.
Replying to @SpearfishingCap
$EOSE schedules upgrades around customer operating windows on a project-by-project basis so active sites remain available when customers need dispatchable power, while every 2026+ factory Cube (incl. all FPUSA Cubes) already ships with the 672-module DawnOS hardware built in.
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
Tesla will be winding down production of the Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of next year to make room for increased Cybercab production
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
Thirty-eight LNG vessels left U.S. ports for the week ending November 4, up one vessel from the previous week. Nine vessels departed from Sabine Pass, eight from Plaquemines, seven from Corpus Christi, four from Cameron, three each from Calcasieu Pass and Freeport, two from Cove Point, and one each from Elba Island and Golden Pass. The LNG-carrying capacity of vessels departing U.S. ports was 144 Bcf, up 2 Bcf from the previous week.
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$eose I know Ugur is assuming $350mm revenue below which seems impossible at the moment. But, I believe it was in the Q2 call that Joe said getting to the top end of guidance would require getting all 4 shifts on Line 2 operating by the end of the year. Yesterday we were told Line 2 is running 24 hours a day. I still don't know if that means 2 shifts [A+C] or 4 shifts [A+B+C+D]. If the company is at 4 shifts as of yesterday, Ugur's math might just come into play!
$EOSE If Eos closes the year at $350M revenue, the unit economics get very interesting. Q4 would need ~$142M, at ~670 MWh. Revenue per kWh: $212 (ASP, the lowest recent print) + $45 (45X tax credit) + $3 (ETC, electrolyte tax credit) = $260/kWh 
COGS per kWh: ~$255 (my estimate: COGS needed to hit (15%) adj. GM at that volume) $260 vs $255 β†’ crossing breakeven on a per-unit basis, and getting very close to contribution-margin positive. If not Q4, then Q1. This is done !!! , done !!!. All Q4 figures are my own estimates, not company guidance. Company guides FY'26 to the lower half of $300–350M. ASP held flat at $212; tax credit treatment assumed.
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
It's been a long day! Finally finished reading each $EOSE Q3 2026 filing and call transcript. Here's what we thought and some gems: Eos delivered record Q3 revenue and margin improvement, confirming it's on track with its FY2026 guidance and 2027 profitability roadmap. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ”‹πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
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$EOSE First draft of the Q3 summary During Q3 we learned from an analyst report that 85% of revenue is booked on shipment and 15% is booked on commissioning. That info is not incorporated in the attached.
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$EOSE Operating leverage put simply: For every $1 of additional revenue in Q3 compared with Q2, they had $0.67 of additional COGS, improving gross profit by $0.33. Was a long time coming, but they are making progress.
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$eose contribution margin positive
More detail Q2 REVENUE: $68.75mm Q2 GROSS PROFIT: -$48.8mm Q3 REVENUE: $82.731mm Q3 GROSS PROFIT: -$44.2mm Revenue climbed $14mm while gross profit loss shrank $4.6mm That is exactly what CM+ means!
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
$eose Contribution Margin positive Not mentioned, but Q3 was CM+ Q2'26 adjusted EBITDA loss $71.4mm Q3'26 adjusted EBITDA loss $63.8mm That's the definition of CM+
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
$eose Eos will beat both of these numbers and algos will bid it up. The EPS will massively beat purely from mark to markets changes in warrants etc
Expected numbers for $EOSE (Eos Energy) earnings today before open:
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πŸ”‹GregπŸ”‹πŸ’ŽπŸ€² retweeted
(1/4)THE DESERT IS RECHARGING: 18.6 trillion gallons of rain fell in the Four Corners region the last 2 weeks - and it’s having an impact. Flooding has been a big concern, but on the flip side lake levels have come up during a time of year that substantial rises are quite rare.
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