@Fullcarry

US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym

 Palm Beach, Florida
Joined February 2009
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  • Followers55.1K
4.9KMedia
Always good to remember that markets is people.... and their positions
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A not very important FOMC meeting on deck tomorrow. Odds of a hike down to 8% and any statement/presser comments will likely feel dated and irrelevant in a week or so.
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CB's labor market gauge a bit higher
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UST 5s is a sell-side and AI disruption fav so it trades rich on the curve. It could very well be justifiable richness but NTL should see some back and forth before the auction esp with FOMC tomorrow.
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So where do y'all see 2s10s if AI destroys humanity?
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With 2y and 5y auctions today and tomorrow, front end should stay under pressure until FOMC statement/presser on Wed unless AI jitters flare-up again
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2s carry and roll well and are cheap to Fed and market rate path. Auction should go well
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"The ant is a collectively intelligent and individually stupid animal; man is the opposite." Karl von Frisch
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Unimpressive tech bounce after yesterday's rout.
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SR3 rate path live vs Wed
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This relentless bidding must be shorts covering. If it's CTAs, I guess I don't get their strategy and need to look into.
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Ed Bradford retweeted
Matt Graham
@MG_MBSOct 22
MND 30yr Mortgage Rate Index Down to 7.36% from 7.40%. Underwhelming move relative to bond market improvement. Lenders playing it safe on this rally.
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Looks like Fed's gonna take a pass next week raising rates. Enough going on with AI angst, Euro agita and midterms so best to postpone to Dec FOMC
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Funny thing is front-end Ts had so much uncertainty and term risk priced in that even now they materially exceed Fed's projections. This rally is just taking out some fluff
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Ed Bradford retweeted
Bloomberg
@businessOct 22
In the ontological contest between AI and German philosophers, the latter is winning, says @andreaskluth (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

It's AI 0, German Philosophers 1

It might sound like a Monty Python sketch updated for 2026: Artificial Intelligence vs. German philosophers. The question to be settled is what it means to be human in an age when AI becomes more...

bloomberg.com
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Happy risk-off morning
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Who pissed off 2s and 5s?
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With odds of a cutback or elimination still out there, 20s have been strengthening on the curve. No reason for today's auction not to go well as it seems headliney duration angst is behind us
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The front end of the forward UST curve is too flat above 5%. This is especially true given the risk premium built up across the curve
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Housing is dead
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