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Today is the day I join the Substack family, and I have two main reasons:
1) Substack offers better options for sharing longer and more complex work. I want to share, for example, my Excel files, where I have all my calculations, and that works better on Substack than through X articles
2) Feedback from my followers - I was surprised, but many people already asked me if I wanted to create an account on Substack. I assume it is easier for people to read and share than using X.
Please understand that all my articles, deep dives, valuation models, and further analysis will be free for everyone. I am new to Substack, and I must say the fact that the first thing it helps you with is setting up subscriptions is comical. I have some preset settings for subscriptions, but you don’t need to subscribe, as all posts will be open to everyone!
The only limitation I actually set up myself is that commenting is open only to subscribers (the free tier is sufficient) to avoid annoying people.
Feel free to share this so people can follow. Already uploaded my updated Nebius Thesis, and tomorrow I will release the margin impact analysis regarding Token Factory’s new joiner, Inferize.
Thanks for all the support!
funmentalist.substack.com/
"I'm going to give you a tagline: No tagline needed!" - @JensenHuang, CEO, @nvidia #NVIDIAGTC Berlin
$BE
I suggest reading this before today’s earnings report!
The Fundamentalist retweeted
Boring routine
finance.yahoo.com/markets/st…
$NBIS A little more information
Important things to understand:
1) Nebius SECURED a $3.5B facility, it doesn’t mean that they immediately borrowed the full $3.5B amount.
2) Base-case interest rate: SOFR + 2.75%
If we use today’s 1-month SOFR, the total interest rate is roughly 6.7%, which is great! Many companies in the AI space borrow at much harder conditions...
3) The 364-day maturity means that Nebius must repay or refinance the outstanding principal within roughly one year
4) It is a positive signal that Citi is willing to provide $3.5B with a spread of only 275bps initially, but the short maturity means that the interest rate might be a bit more volatile, and you should be careful with using 6.7% as the final interest rate!
🚨 JUST IN:
$NBIS secures $3.5B financing facility with Citi.
The facility has a 364-day maturity, with an initial interest rate of Term SOFR + 2.75%, potentially increasing to SOFR + 3.50%, subject to adjustments.
This strengthens Nebius' liquidity position and provides greater flexibility over the timing and structure of future capital raises.
$NBIS Another $3.5B
Extrémech bullish signal for the market because the current fear is not being able to access cheap capital and this is relatively cheap!
🚨 JUST IN:
$NBIS secures $3.5B financing facility with Citi.
The facility has a 364-day maturity, with an initial interest rate of Term SOFR + 2.75%, potentially increasing to SOFR + 3.50%, subject to adjustments.
This strengthens Nebius' liquidity position and provides greater flexibility over the timing and structure of future capital raises.
$NBIS
Management is always #1 priority
The moment you understand that, you will get better at investing.
$NBIS Arkady spitting fire 🔥 Day 2
Question:
" So you think Chips are the biggest upcoming constraint?"
Nebius CEO Arkady:
"Capacity hmm, will be there, we have enough contracted already.
Capital ... as i said before is not a problem, it is just a task. It is how you get there.
We have a pretty healthy balance sheet. We have always been more conservative here. We used all kinds of instruments.
From last week probably some of the capital sources are temporarily closed like asset backed and debt market ( 😅I chuckled at this more than I should have btw)
But we are now working with customer advances and several other instruments that will provide us with enough capital to buy this next GW "
And then my favorite Part :
Question 2:
Nebius has taken a more disciplined approach with the balancesheet. What is that? Is that coming from your background from running Yandex?
Nebius CEO Arkady:
"Just ... we are building a REAL company. A company is measured by earnings. How much value you generate. Healthy businesses generate cash"
🫳🎤
The Fundamentalist retweeted
$NBIS 🥵THE MOST BULLISH GTC NEWS DROP YET
I have posted extensively about how $NBIS serves as an indispensable defender for $NVDA's long term ecosystem and market share. (Post below)
Nvidia NEEDS specialized GPU clouds like Nebius as a counterweight against hyperscalers and frontier labs building closed systems with proprietary silicon.
Today, Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh stated that access to chips will be the next major bottleneck as manufacturing capacity simply cannot keep up with demand.
This news directly supercharges the entire thesis.
If chip availability becomes the primary bottleneck, Nvidia being forced to prioritize its most strategic allies puts Nebius in an absolute pole position.
$NBIS 💚 $NVDA
THE BEGINNING OF THE ENDGAME
Hyperscaler capital expenditure and historic revenue growth have already proven the insatiable market demand for artificial intelligence.
@JensenHuang mobilizing 500 billion dollars alongside Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR is not about proving AI as a legitimate industrial revolution.
It is a calculated structural countermeasure against hyperscaler independence.
$AMZN , $GOOGL , $META and $MSFT are actively building closed ecosystems with proprietary silicon and custom models to internalize margins.
Jensen needs to keep these tech giants as clients, but he is simultaneously creating a highly liquid competitive army to keep them in check.
To understand the scale of this move, you have to look at Jensen's three step playbook:
- First, Nvidia forged tight partnerships and absorbed specialized neoclouds into its ecosystem as dedicated allies. ( $NBIS , $CRWV , $IREN )
- Second, he granted them fast lane priority access to the newest hardware.
-Third, through this 500 billion dollar Wall Street financing architecture, he just gave them the massive financial firepower to actually afford this game.
Jensen carefully handpicked who he is sending into this race against the hyperscalers.
On CNBC, he explicitly pointed out that these AI labs and specialized GPU clouds are the fastest growing and extremely profitable companies in business history.
Nvidia is ensuring that its handpicked partners have the liquidity required to keep the broader AI ecosystem firmly anchored to CUDA. Neoclouds are therefore 100% tied to $NVDA best interest.
Among them, $NBIS sits at the absolute center of this race.
Nebius is not a real estate landlord sliding GPUs into server racks. With a legacy of over one thousand software engineers and deep engineering collaboration with , their technical depth stands unmatched.
Their orchestration software and global footprint allow them to deliver higher layer platform services to the broadest client base possible, positioning Nebius to potentially also convert other neoclouds into paying customers.
This institutional financing framework completely reframes the expansion trajectory for $NBIS .
When CEO Arkady Volozh presented the roadmap toward a 4 gigawatt capacity during the Nebius Inflection meeting, the sheer scale of required capital expenditure dropped my jaw to the floor.
In hindsight, the absolute calm Volozh displayed in his presentation makes complete sense.
While the public market viewed a 4 gigawatt buildout as a monstrous capital burden and a dilution threat, industry insiders understood that institutional GPU backed debt would transform it into a fully funded infrastructure asset class.
$NBIS stands as the prime structural beneficiary of this shift.
And the path to becoming one of the next hyperscalers is paved by @JensenHuang himself.
Long $NBIS
$NBIS
I agree with @InvestNorthwise, as we were among the most bullish ones regarding the Nebius stock price and, more importantly, ARR/revenue estimates.
The analysts are not paying enough attention to what Nebius says, and they are for some reason, modelling everything with numbers that are not correct in the current supply-constrained environment.
While street consensus is $16B in ARR, my base case is $35B. While many argued about this number being way too high, it is a simple combination of two metrics that Nebius needs to achieve:
1) 1700MW of active power by the end of 2027
To be honest, I don’t see any issues with that, as currently confirmed is roughly 1550MW and with the speed of AI adoption in Europe, we will most likely see additions to this number and we already have clues for several sites across Europe and also Asia.
2) $21M/MW blended revenue
This sounded unrealistic to many when I first published my valuation model, but with Nebius confirming 1GW of Vera Rubin to be deployed during 2027 and many of these MW already active by the end of the year, it will not be that difficult for Nebius to achieve that. Short term deals will be signed for $50M per MW in 2027, while medium-term deals will be around $25M per MW. More than 500MW of active power will be signed for either one of these types, and if you do the math, we are around $20M/MW already.
For clarity, I said this multiple times: Nebius won’t guide for $35B, but I believe they will achieve it in 2027.
$641 is the price target for EOY27
Remember that we have continued to reiterate our view that $NBIS ARR will likely come in double current street estimates (maybe more)
Price action over these weeks has nothing to do with the current demand environment or continued rapid execution from management.
Due to popular request to bring our 2030 models in closer before earnings, we will be dropping our full year 2027 Nebius model and targets soon.
We were the first to view hyperscaler deals as anchor contracts for financing and that Nebius should be modelled through a capacity first ground up view point.
If you follow street estimates and models, the vast majority now use that same framework to model Nebius and they continue to adjust their near and long term capacity forecasts to the numbers we were publishing as early last year.
We may not have the distribution of some of the big banks, but we have thousands of pages of reports and thousands of hours of research that is now aiding the street to catch up.
Most of these analysts reactively adjust their models to replicate short term price action, meanwhile our forecasts have only been revised up as Arkady and the team continue to execute at a higher level that we could have imagined.
We aren’t bothered by corrections, we research and display our conviction publicly, even as our targets grow farther apart from near term valuations.
$NBIS 1GW of Vera Rubin in 2027
Huh? We knew that Nebius wants to add >1 GW of connected power each year starting in 2027, but we definitely didn’t know that there would be at least 1 GW of VR GPUs going online...
Just so you understand the implications (as of today):
Pricing: at least $40-$50M/MW
CapEx: roughly $50M/MW (including all costs of the buildout)
1GW of VRs will add roughly $50B of revenue for Nebius...
$NBIS at GTC Post Game
CRO @marcboroditsky on Vera Rubin:
"Vera Rubin are ciritcal to the industry right now.
Folks are excited about the next generation compute.
We heard it mostly from model builders at first.
Bot now we are also hearing it from the broader portion of the market.
We are bringing 1 GW worth of Veras next year.
and already have significant demand for them"
$HIMS
Both injectable and oral testosterone are now available through the HIMS plaftorm!
Our testosterone offering now includes both injectable and oral TRT options, expanding the tools men have to address a condition that is misunderstood at best, and ignored at worst.
Getting proactive about complex health challenges should be simple.
Our platform is built for exactly that: At-home blood collection. Longitudinal tracking. Provider-guided treatment that adapts over time. Expanded treatment options that reflect the best the industry has to offer.
Today is about @wearehims testosterone customers, but it’s also about what’s possible when you have a care team alongside you for your entire health journey.
news.hims.com/newsroom/a-new…
$NBIS $IREN
Agents used 34x more tokens today than at the start of Feb
You can see that in August, we started going vertical and there seems to be no slowing down
Tokens being cheaper causes them to be also more valuable, which means that people might suddenly see reasonable ROIC. This is extremely healthy for the long-term AI adoption
$NBIS
Startup? Hyperscaler, you mean?
“Startup companies like Nebius are doing incredibly well.” - @JensenHuang, @nvidia CEO at #NVIDIAGTC Berlin keynote
$NBIS $IREN
It wasn’t that hard to predict, and it shows how stupid and inefficient the market currently is...
What did everyone expect? That Elon will say: "Yeah, we don’t see massive demand anymore"?
$SPCX
We could theoretically see the narrative shift in the neocloud sector ($NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV) today already. Elon knows how to pump his stock, and he will definitely talk about the development of AI compute demand.
Remember what he dropped last earnings call? He was the first one to hint that VR could be priced around $40-$50M/MW.
We will see in 15 minutes!
$NBIS $IREN
There is a lot of quotes floating around on X right now regarding what was said during $SPCX’s earnings call.
I don’t really care about Elon saying that ARR will be next year $500B - $1T and that they plan to have 13GW of power by the end of 2027.
What is important is the fact that there is still significant demand and nothing changed since Q2 earnings, which means that we can expect strong Q3 earnings from other AI companies as well.
We are still far from a bursting bubble…
Investing in $NBIS finally feels like going against the masses, which is an important indicator that there is still room to go
You can have your price targets, your earnings estimates, anything you want, but as long as the sentiment is extremely bullish, there is usually a limited short-term upside.
Tables have turned, and I still stand by my price targets:
$300 EOY26
$641 EOY27
People just don’t get it... that $16B ARR estimate was a confirmation for me
$SPCX
We could theoretically see the narrative shift in the neocloud sector ($NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV) today already. Elon knows how to pump his stock, and he will definitely talk about the development of AI compute demand.
Remember what he dropped last earnings call? He was the first one to hint that VR could be priced around $40-$50M/MW.
We will see in 15 minutes!



















