I search for correlation and causation. Assist. Prof in Data Science at UCL Ex-Fellow at LSE | PhD from Oxford
London
Joined September 2019
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🚨 New paper out in PNAS @PNASNews 🚨
Following recent high-profile research fraud scandals, we asked:
👉 How stable are findings—even when researchers follow the rules?
With Tim Vlandas (Oxford), we analyzed 3.6B regression coefficients.
Surprising results ahead. 🧵⬇️
(1/6)
(6/6)
🧠Bottom line:
Fraud makes headlines. But our study shows even honest research can flip depending on design.
Robustness isn’t about one decision — it’s about the entire modeling universe.
📄Paper: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.24…
🧪Replication: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15480…
🧵 Did Trump’s wall actually win him votes — or was it just political theater?
What if a campaign promise alone could sway voters — even before it’s delivered?
👇
9/
So yes — economic promises can win votes.
But the effect is fleeting.
They change behavior, not identity.
10/
📄Read the full article: doi.org/10.1177/001041402513…
Would love to hear from others working on campaigns, voter behavior, or political psychology!
#PoliticalScience #Elections #CampaignPromises
Michael Ganslmeier retweeted
Some governments faced massive public protests as they tried to implement policies to meet the 2015 Paris climate agreement. New IMF staff research identifies ways to help manage the political economy of climate change policies. Read how in #IMFBlog bit.ly/2WPUPd2
Michael Ganslmeier retweeted
Are policies designed to avert climate change politically costly?
Davide Furceri, @GanslmeierM, Jonathan D. Ostry find that policy design matters | @cepr_org
cepr.org/active/publications…
@IMFNews
ALT CEPR Discussion Paper 16273, Are Climate Change Policies Politically Costly? June 16 2021, International Macroeconomics and Finance, Public Finance