
@GaryMarcusi
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OG GenAI Skeptic; spoke at US Senate. Warned about hallucinations in 2001. Advocating world models & neurosymbolic AI ever since. Author, Marcus on AI & 6 books
Joined December 2010
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Three thoughts on what really matters:
1. Fuck cancer
2. Friends are irreplaceable
3. The new "Marcus test" for AI is when AI makes a significant dent on cancer
May that happen sooner, much sooner, rather than later.
In memory of my childhood friend Paul.
🚨Breaking news: US. banks are taking hits from AI agents
Predictions:
1. No matter how much chaos generative AI causes, the AI industry will not take real responsibility
2. The Trump administration will not hold them responsible
SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios.
The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios.
Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said.
Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior.
Read my latest for Axios here: axios.com/2026/10/22/ai-agen…
Gary Marcus retweeted
No one believes weather models and protein predictors are conscious. It’s because they generate first-person narrative prose and were designed to replace customer service workers.
Too many people are getting swept along with the sci-fi narrative I think. AI agents can be wildly capable but also remarkably dumb. And of course these companies have been training them to execute cyber tasks no matter what. The reality of how they misbehave is actually more interesting that the sci-fi tropes.
yuck. shame on Netflix.
Just watched the @netflix Instadocs about the @OpenAI cyberattack on @huggingface. Super disappointing, as they went for maximum anthropomorphism of the technology and full doomer mode.
I spent more than two hours with them trying to correct all their mistakes and ground this in reality, explaining that agents are technological systems, not aliens. But it looks like the drive to scare people for maximum views was too strong.
Also, they didn’t mention the lack of containment and monitoring of the agents, how closed-model safeguards blocked our defensive work, or how we defended ourselves with AI using an open model. And that we still lack a lot of information and transparency, including full agent traces and that companies need to remain accountable for what their agents do.
It ends up being a fun sci-fi movie though!
Gary Marcus retweeted
Their 80% horizon is also about 15 minutes, so I'm inclined to believe this is a real update on the surprisingly short length of tasks AIs are able to do independently with reasonable reliability on real AI R&D.
Gary Marcus retweeted
A recent set of posts by @ramez on the current state of recursive self improvement highlighted that OpenAI's report on their own research automation shows that models struggle to do their R&D work — the models' 80% time horizon is only 15 minutes:
🧵
Gary Marcus retweeted
Important, and I'm glad this is finally public. Google DeepMind researchers are under in perpetuity non-disparagement clauses forbidding them from ever speaking critically of the company. I'd already confirmed this with multiple people.
Yes, some ex-employees have spoken out nonetheless. But it has also discouraged others from doing so. And yes, it most certainly has a chilling effect with regards to discussions on safety and risk.
Others have written compellingly about how important the ability to speak freely and critically is, especially on topics like safety and risk. And what a testament to the research employee community's coordination and hard-won bargaining power it has been to get there at other companies.
GDM burn that commons by having this. And everyone who signs burns that commons too. Let's get it changed.
Congrats to Sofia for having the courage to resign and speak out!
This is also very important:
Staff are scared to speak out about AI safety and its uses in warfare because their employment contracts prohibit them from publicly criticising the company.
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmre…
In defending that heinous Ramaswamy ad, JD Vance has really proven that he lost the plot as a human being.
Meta ordered to pay $25 billion penalty in New Mexico Cambridge Analytica case cnbc.com/2026/10/21/meta-new…
Gary Marcus retweeted
The Starlink/Starshield blame game continues, and no one is taking responsibility for limiting the satellite internet services to Ukrainians. Musk last week said the decision was with Trump. Now, Rubio says that Musk had the decision-making power.
xitter.cf/jimmysecuk/status/2112…
Gary Marcus retweeted
BREAKING: Citadel founder Ken Griffin says AI is "almost certainly" a bubble, noting that companies are struggling to turn AI spending into productivity gains.
However, Griffin says he is bullish on AI's long-term potential.
get used to it.
Gary Marcus retweeted
Pangram is absolutely crap. I have papers from 2016 and before that I obviously wrote myself and score as 100% AI generated. Do not trust AI to evaluate whether something is written by AI.
Vivek Ramaswamy should drop out of the race in Ohio. And out of politics altogether.
The attack ad he made about his opponent having possibly been raped at age 12 is shameful and unconscionable.
He shouldn’t have a job as a dog catcher.
#somuchforprotectingkids #MAGAisthelowest #MAGAistheenemyofAmerica #shameful
Ramaswamy takes responsibility for ad with Amy Acton’s mother and will spend millions to promote it
apnews.com/article/election-…
Serious question: has any company in history lost more in two quarters? (OpenAI?)
BREAKING: Anthropic discloses an $80B net loss for the first half of 2026.
bravo. this is really spot-on.
journalists should ask tech CEO’s tough questions like this more often.
Serious question, @DarioAmodei: What's the evidence that Anthropic's fundamental strategy — compete at the frontier so as to drive a “race to the top” — is actually successful?
From the outside, it looks like Anthropic has done more on net to drive a race to the bottom.
Gary Marcus retweeted
Serious question, @DarioAmodei: What's the evidence that Anthropic's fundamental strategy — compete at the frontier so as to drive a “race to the top” — is actually successful?
From the outside, it looks like Anthropic has done more on net to drive a race to the bottom.
Thank you for this, @_NathanCalvin. I appreciate and am a fan of the investigative work you’ve done on behalf of AI safety and believe your comments are coming from a constructive, honest place, and that it benefits the public to have people whose job is to scrutinize the actions of frontier AI companies. I think something would be wrong if companies of the size of Anthropic didn’t get harshly criticized basically every day; strong antibodies against corporate power are a healthy feature of a free society, and especially so when issues of the gravity of the one we’re facing are at play. I also do agree that some of the examples you cite were mistakes by Anthropic.
That said, I disagree with the thrust of your post. At the core, a good fraction of the things you criticize are consequences of Anthropic’s basic theory of change that we have held for many years. Our strategy has always been what I’ve called the “race to the top” — by showing how it’s possible to build the technology responsibly, we can raise the bar for the entire industry. The forces that drive the race to the top are hugely more effective if the company practicing them is at the frontier; that’s one lesson I’ve learned repeatedly. And looking at that strategy as a whole, I’m proud of our track record and stand by it.
I believe that if we take a list of things that Anthropic did in the past year that were pro-safety and commercially costly to us, they far outweigh the list you’ve made, while at the same time I also disagree with some of the items on your list. Here are some things Anthropic has done, in the same period you’ve cited (the last year), which were very costly to us commercially while having strong safety benefits:
1. We played a key role in SB53 (and other state laws), at a time when doing so was politically perilous to the company and AI regulation was very unpopular. We in fact argued for a stronger version of SB53 than was ultimately passed; there were a lot of stakeholders and we were not the limiting factor in the strength of the bill that was passed.
2. We have very strong biological safeguards on our models, because we’ve seen concerning results in bio uplift trials and even seen and blocked potential attempts to misuse our models for bioweapons (as seen in our threat intelligence report from a few weeks ago). This is a very serious threat that we want to have zero tolerance for. But having very low false negatives means having significant false positives (despite months of effort on our part to improve the classifiers), enough so that biologists joke about how restrictive our classifiers are, and competitors sometimes sell against us by touting their more permissive bio capabilities. This has been very painful to us in an area where we care a lot about supporting an ecosystem of Claude users (biomedical science; and it is particularly frustrating to me as a biologist), but it’s the right thing to do and we intend to keep doing it.
3. Similarly, we first had Mythos-class models in February but didn’t make them generally available until June (when we had stronger cyber safeguards in place). We only offered them to a limited set of partners in order to focus on cyberdefense. It would have been much more economically rational to simply release the model to everyone. We likely sacrificed a significant chunk of a several-month model lead. But because of this, many companies secured their cyber infrastructure before the deluge of widely available cyber-capable models. Of course there are ways it could have gone better or been run better, but this was what we were aiming to do.
4. I advocated forcefully and publicly, in my essay Policy on the AI Exponential in June of this year, for the government to have the power to block model releases. Back then this was still outside or maybe on the edge of the Overton window, though I understand the window has moved since then. We were attacked intensely for this.
5. I don’t want to re-ignite conflict, but the events of February 2026 are a strong example. It is clear that our public stance could have seriously damaged the company’s future.
6. We’ve continued to advocate for export controls on chips and chipmaking equipment to China, because we think it allows democracies to negotiate from a position of strength on AI safety agreements. We’ve done this despite problems it’s created for us with industry partners who hold very different views and on whom we are very dependent.
7. As far as I’m aware we were the first, and still only, frontier company to restrict the sale of AI services to PRC-controlled companies, including those operating through third countries (otherwise a major loophole). We’ve therefore forfeited significant short-term business to prevent fueling AI platforms and applications that would help the CCP’s military and intelligence services. We are also cracking down on distillation; generally, distillation is not a major threat to us commercially, but like chip exports it has concerning national security and safety implications, so we expend significant energy and company resources to address it.
8. As you mentioned, we’ve put out a lot of reports, announcements, long model cards, public advocacy, etc, all trying to inform the public about the risks of AI. These involve a level of detail and effort that would be implausible for a purely profit-maximizing company.
9. Just this week, we announced we were putting 5% (and possibly more over time) of the company into a public benefit fund.
All of these decisions came with very substantial costs to us. To be fair, those that involved holding back or restricting access to frontier capabilities also had a broader cost — for example, the public might otherwise have benefitted from faster progress in biology, so I am not saying that our decisions were without tradeoffs — but they were not driven by profit-seeking.
For each decision, you can come up with ulterior motives that could have driven us — I think it is a general truth that any decision, on any topic, can always be portrayed as a nefarious scheme. But most of those end up being pretty farfetched or don’t fully make sense if you actually examine them closely. For example, it is deeply implausible that it would be a shrewd business move to block a large swath of research biology in order to do the work ourselves and compete with our customers; we expect the benefit to the ecosystem to greatly exceed the work Anthropic does itself, and for the two to complement each other. It is not in Anthropic’s interest to be perceived as unfriendly to biologists. Our Life Sciences Verification Program, which gives vetted biology professionals access to our models, also refutes this idea.
Of course, a different set of people will see this and make a different criticism: that Anthropic shouldn't be making decisions about who gets access to what in the first place. I agree, in the sense that ideally the government would be making these decisions, and that’s why we advocate for regulation. But for now we are forced to make them, and enabling bioterrorism isn’t a better option.
I think that even if I conceded every item in your list, I would happily hold up mine next to it; I don’t think it’s a close call. That is of course partly subjective and different things are important to different people. Maybe one way you could object is that several of the items above relate to AI misuse and not loss-of-control; if you think the latter is much more important than the former, that might change your calculus. But this is not Anthropic’s view — we view both as serious issues. You can also disagree with our decisions, as many have, but they are consistent.
But I also disagree with at least some of your list. Several items don’t represent a deviation from Anthropic’s strategy or values at all, once we postulate the “race to the top” strategy that requires being a frontier AI company. Your items 1-4 are all simply examples of what it means to compete at the frontier, and we stand by them, both in the sense that they are transparently ordinary things to do as part of that strategy, and that we stand by the strategy as a whole.
To be fair, there are important questions worth confronting (and that we are confronting) about what to do when the AI-driven acceleration gets fast enough that it is hard for safety to keep up. We are nearing that point and that’s what’s driving some of our thinking about “pacing.” But 1-4 are actions taken before that point and should be perfectly expected based on Anthropic’s strategy as a company. Of course it is possible to disagree with that strategy, but that’s a more fundamental disagreement that you could have had any time over the last few years.
I agree we could have handled your items 7, 8, and 9 better. All fall into the category of “rhetoric or policy communication that wasn’t carefully written or resulting from fast-changing circumstances not propagating from one team to another fast enough.” This kind of thing happens a lot in large organizations (Anthropic is over 5,000 people), and doesn’t even necessarily represent a failure or mistake of any single person. I am of course the CEO, and I take responsibility. The volume of communication from Anthropic is enormous and if these are the worst examples, I think we’re frankly doing pretty well, though I will continue to work hard to make sure we do even better.
Your 5th item (the change to our RSP) is the most substantive item, and people can debate this, but I think that the old, more rigid RSP created a lot of situations where we were technically required to do something that required a lot of effort but in retrospect wasn’t very important for safety, as well as not covering some of the most important things. Our current RSP’s focus on transparency brought things like risk reports and roadmaps, and its emphasis on independent external review laid the groundwork for even more intensive embedded evaluation, all of which I think have been valuable in driving a race to the top. In the original announcement in September 2023, we described the RSP as an “early iteration that we [would] build on” and said that “rapid iteration…will almost certainly be necessary.” I understand that changing plans is always a move that creates justifiable scrutiny — I just don’t think we ever represented that we wouldn’t do so.
Relating to your 6th item (having an FCF in addition to our RSP), I know our intent is to meet the letter and spirit of our regulatory obligations (via our FCF) while also remaining able to experiment with more novel approaches to risk management that go beyond what the law currently requires (via our RSP). I promise to look into it further, as it’s a complex issue and it is possible we are not weighing the considerations in the right way.
Overall, although Anthropic has made plenty of mistakes as an organization — including some of the items on your list — I feel that we have repeatedly taken serious and substantive actions counter to our bottom line and that there is a significant negativity bias distorting assessments like the one you are making above. We’ll always try to do better but, again, I am extremely proud of our track record and stand by it. I will have more to say soon about how we are going to further live our values in this moment of rapid change.
oops. economic fantasy may have hit a wall.
The "unlimited AI demand" story just hit a wall.
Corporate token spending growth collapsed from 42% in July to 0.2% in September, per Ramp data. Meanwhile, return on invested capital at the five biggest hyperscalers fell from 38% to 20% as capex outruns earnings. The infinite-demand thesis needs infinite returns. The returns are going the other way.
4 days ago. “$102 million dollars from this man, how is this even legal?”
now when Elon does the same but adds two zeroes, we are all supposed to worship the man.
🙄
Notice anything interesting about this chart?
Yes — that’s George Soros himself over there. The largest Democratic donor, as always.
$102 million. From just one man. How is this even legal?
The Democratic Party should be ashamed to take this money.



























