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Brexit Model Evaluation vs Reality
Thought I’d put together an easy-to-digest analysis for all the retards out there.
Feedback welcome.
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Ghost of Corkey retweeted
The Dover Port Health Authority recorded 1,991 individual seizures of illegal meat imports up to Q3 2026.
A total of 151,805.73 kg in just 8mths
The vast majority of these seizures wouldn't have occurred if the proposed UK–EU reset were already in force.
dover.gov.uk/Corporate-Infor…
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
It also "raises new questions" about whether he knows what his negotiators are doing, since they have just agreed (entirely unnecessarily) to accept the partial application of the AI Act in Northern Ireland. 1/2
Exclusive by @JacobReid02
Andy Burnham won’t accept EU rules on artificial intelligence as a condition of closer ties, raising new questions about how far he is willing to go in his rethink of Brexit
“We have no plans to align with the EU AI Act,” a UK government spokesperson said. “Our approach to AI regulation will continue to be guided by UK priorities, with a focus on keeping people safe and supporting economic growth.”
This comes in addition to Burnham rejecting dynamic alignment with the EU on financial services, which Bloomberg reported earlier this week
AI is helping Britain outpace its European neighbours on GDP growth, while the EU has moved quicker than the UK to pass sweeping AI rules, a new area of post-Brexit divergence
The EU’s approach to AI is opposed by the US. A UK official said Britain risks US retaliation if it adopts EU rules. Trump might block access for Britain’s AI Security Institute to test models from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, said the official
Burnham choosing to insist on UK sovereignty on financial services and AI regulation means it is very hard to see how he could support joining the single market and becoming a rule-taker. That appears to close off some options for his big move closer to the EU
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
Forget Rejoining, the EU would gain nothing from that. Burnham is about to give them everything they want on a plate.
Under the Reset the EU can:
1. force all UK food and agriculture companies to obey EU rules, with no vote and no say;
2. prevent the UK from importing food from non EU countries;
3. force the UK to pay the EU for their 'policy works' and pay for the development of poorer EU countries;
4. force UK manufacturers to pay the same ETS costs as EU companies;
5. force the UK to add carbon taxes to important input materials that the UK no longer makes.
The EU will control UK money, UK laws, and even UK borders again, without giving the UK a vote.
This isn't surprising. None of the intermediate docking stations - customs union or single market - is politically viable given the trade-offs involved. Now @andyburnham has reopened the Brexit debate, the political logic was always going to point towards a recommendation for full-fat EU membership
For context: The French are currently opposing any form of decision-shaping - forget decision-making - role regarding the agri-food sector
The Norway option for the whole UK economy was never going to be politically saleable
All roads lead to rejoin
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
The German owned Telegraph forgot to mention one important thing:
The EU bans things using the 'Precautionary Principle',
NOT scientific evidence.
The UK follows WTO CODEX rules, like other WTO members.
What Burnham’s Brexit deal means for your breakfast telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/11…
.@grok please can you summarise the sentiment of the replies for @JoStevensLabour?
Closer ties with the EU are good for jobs, growth and living standards.
This month’s UK - EU summit is the opportunity to secure deeper ties with our European neighbours but mustn’t be the end to our ambition.
It's time to make the case for rejoining the EU 🇬🇧 🤝 🇪🇺
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Ghost of Corkey retweeted
Polly Tearooms in Marlborough closes after 114 years. For the same reasons that all businesses are struggling: NI rise, minimum wage, taxes, regulations.
Our rulers can’t begin to imagine what it’s like to run a small enterprise within tight profit margins.
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
BREAKING: A leaked draft from the upcoming EU-UK summit reveals a staggering £17.6B price tag for British taxpayers in 2027. Read Catherine McBride's full analysis of the hidden EU-UK reset bill and the uncosted commitments Britain is facing.
wp.me/p9GdkQ-ahj
#UKPolitics #euuksummit #BritishEconomy
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
Norway's PM warns Britain NOT to follow its example by joining the EU single market in Brexit reset because Brussels takes too much control trib.al/BlTNDPI
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
This poll shows, when it comes to the detail, the voters in Makerfield are every bit as opposed to EU control as they were in the referendum. @andyburnham take note!
People are only vaguely pro-closer “cooperation” with the EU on the basis that it will somehow fix the cost of living crisis - which it will make worse. And “honest conversation” Burnham does not explain that “reset” means “re-subjugation”.
Because inflicting more EU laws on the UK economy will further stifle innovation and growth. The UK is only growing a little bit faster now because AI/tech sector and City of London/financial services are growing faster than expected. Both sectors regulatory regimes have diverged substantially from the EU.
So the UK is growing a bit faster BECAUSE we are outside the EU. Labour’s declinist narrative is based on a 2020 OBR forecast - now 6 years out of date. And govt won’t publish how they calculate the supposed benefits of their rejoin agenda… it’s all fiction. The overall costs will outweigh the benefits substantially.
The EU is losing share of Global GDP - down from 30% when the Single Market was founded in 1992, to just 17.3% now.
The UK exports a smaller proportion of GDP to the EU (now under 6%) than when the UK left the EU in 2021, but this trend is the same as it was when we were in the Single Market. Even while we were in the single market, UK goods exports to the EU grew by only 35% in real terms between 1997 and 2019 (about 1.4% a year), yet goods exports to non-EU countries grew more than twice as fast, by 85%, without any trade deals with other countries (which the UK now enjoys).
The UK already exported more goods to RoW than to the EU, long before leaving. And the SM is only about goods, not services, which is >80% of the UK economy. Uk has increased services exports to the EU by 28% since leaving the EU.
"Power giveaway to EU fails the Makerfield Test"
We have now posted more details of our exclusive polling on our website 👇
britain-unbound.org/polls-re…
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
A remarkable fact: there are almost certainly more EU26 nationals claiming benefits here than there are British nationals *in total* in the EU26 countries. 745,000 such people on UC alone.
"We didn't know what we were voting for" is an unintentionally funny line from Remainers.
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
For the many UK politicians @UKLabour and journalists @BBC who don't know anything about UK trade, here are the highlights:
1. The UK is now predominantly a service exporter. 57% of UK exports are services, which are not affected by EU 'red tape'.
2. UK goods exports have dropped from almost 70% of our total exports in 1997 to just 43% in 2025. This trend began long before Brexit and is tied to Net Zero mandates, high UK energy prices, and EV mandates.
3. Machinery and transport goods, such as cars and aircraft parts, are 42% of all UK goods exports. This is by far the UK's largest export sector, although it is also falling. It was 50% of UK exports in 2000. But if the UK joins the EU's CBAM, companies in this sector will see their imported material costs rise, making their exports even less competitive.
4. Chemicals are the UK's second-largest export sector. They account for 19% of UK goods exports, but this share is shrinking due to UK and EU energy costs and Net Zero regulations. These will increase if the UK joins the EU ETS.
5. Miscellaneous Manufactures account for 11% of UK goods exports. This is still the UK's third-largest export sector, even though it includes many goods the UK no longer makes because of our high Carbon taxes, which will increase if the UK signs up to the EU's even higher ETS on November 20th.
6. Fuels account for 9% of UK exports. This is still the UK's 4th largest goods export sector, even though the current and previous governments are/were trying to destroy it with bans on new exploration and ultra-high taxes.
7. Material Manufactures account for 8% of UK goods exports. This sector includes iron, steel, aluminium, ceramics, and glass manufacturing - industries that have gone, or are going, out of business in the UK because of high UK energy costs, which will rise if the UK joins the EU ETS.
8. These five sectors make up almost 90% of UK exports. The other 5 industry sectors are insignificant. But the government and our journalists think the UK is New Zealand and that the only goods we export are food and live animals to the EU. We don't! UK food and live animal exports to the EU were just 1.3% of the UK's total exports.
9. The government is about to sacrifice all of the export industries listed above to slightly reduce the IMPORT costs of a handful of Supermarkets, at least two of which are privately owned German companies.
These savings will not be passed on to UK shoppers because the government has also increased wages again, and supermarket energy costs will increase if we join the EU's ETS.
10. UK exports of food and live animals will not increase because we are paying farmers to not produce them, this has nothing to do with EU red tape. Instead we are paying farmers to plant trees and wildflowers or plaster their farmland with solar panels. (54% of UK electricity is coming from gas today, 12% from solar and 3% from wind.)
11. Write to your MP and tell him to #StoptheReset.
If you don't stop this, don't complain when all of our goods export industries have closed because of EU higher carbon taxes, EU higher carbon import tariffs, and the cost of complying with the EU's new packaging and process regulations.
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
🧵 (1/10) – The EU Reset: What are we actually agreeing to?
@CeeMacBee's latest article reviews the leaked press release for the EU-UK Reset, arguing that the deal goes far beyond "reducing trade friction".
Her concern? The UK will be handing the EU a blank cheque while British taxpayers, businesses and universities pick up the bill and wave goodbye to their independence.
Here's the breakdown 👇
Checkmate, Loopy Liz.
Replying to @LizWebsterSBF
Can you be honest, Liz? Is there ANY price you wouldn’t pay to rejoin the EU?
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Ghost of Corkey retweeted
It has become clear over the past week, that the terms of the EU Reset are more one-sided than we could have believed possible.
Any MP agreeing to those terms has either not read them, is too blinded by the pro-EU Stockholm Syndrome to notice, or is working for a foreign power.
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
Point 66 gets to the EU’s main aim in its protectionist policies: the EU wants the UK to help protect the EU’s steel industries with a quota system under the WTO GATT process. This ‘reciprocal’ arrangement has two massive holes.
1. The UK hardly makes any steel any more. It is down to just 2 blast furnaces, and they are only still operating because of massive government subsidies, while the EU has 47 blast furnaces and hundreds of Electric Arc Furnace steelworks which run on much cheaper industrial electricity than the UK’s. So agreeing to Point 66 would simply result in the final death of UK steelmaking.
2. The EU has defied the WTO CODEX rules and has ignored a myriad of complaints to the WTO after the EU lowered its pesticide Maximum Residue Levels, and its banning of certain food ingredients and packaging materials without any scientific evidence to back up its changes.
The EU is happy to cherry-pick which WTO rules it wants to obey and which it wants to ignore, but now the EU wants to use the WTO to block Chinese EV and steel imports while the EU is simultaneously defying the WTO CODEX rules and blocking imports of fruit, vegetables, and cereals from other countries.
I should point out that if the UK is silly enough to let the EU make its SPS rules, the UK will also be defying WTO CODEX rules.
However, the UK would still have a steel industry and would not fear being undercut by Chinese steel if it had encouraged investment in new steel plant and equipment rather than making steel production uneconomic through short-sighted carbon taxes, bans on coking coal extraction, and high industrial electricity prices making EAFs uneconomic in the UK.
For more information about the 'Reset' read my latest Substack, catherinemcbride.substack.co…
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
In other words, the UK would sacrifice its £28B Agtech sector to prioritise its food and live animal exports to the EU, which amounted to £12B in 2025.
For the sake of British innovation, we very much hope this isn't the case.
Ghost of Corkey retweeted
EU #youth #unemployment in September 2026:
🇷🇴30.8%
🇪🇪23.9%
🇫🇮23.7%
🇸🇪23.2%
🇪🇸22.8%
🇱🇺22.0%
🇫🇷21.9%
🇮🇹19.9%
🇵🇹19.1%
🇧🇪18.0%
🇸🇰17.7%
🇬🇷17.3%
🇱🇻16.5%
🇩🇰16.2%
🇭🇷16.1%
🇪🇺15.5%
🇭🇺14.6%
🇸🇮14.6%
🇱🇹14.0%
🇧🇬13.0%
🇦🇹12.8%
🇮🇪12.5%
🇨🇾11.3%
🇵🇱11.3%
🇲🇹9.6%
🇨🇿8.9%
🇳🇱8.8%
🇩🇪7.5%
@EU_Eurostat

























