Flávio fugiu para os EUA com a família. Fuga contou com ajuda de um grupo restrito de aliados no Brasil e nos EUA, que acionaram governo Trump para garantir a entrada do senador. Flávio deve entrar pela Flórida na tarde desta terça. Bastidores no @Metropoles.👇🏽metropoles.com/colunas/igor-…

Thoughts from Michael Hartnett, BofA | Enter The Dragon Zeitgeist quotes: •"Worst thing that could happen to this bull move in Treasuries is a recession." •"If I bought a cemetery, people would stop dying," client on being long China. While markets remain focused on AI valuations and the Fed, several developments suggest a broader shift in global risk: •China's deflationary pressure: The CSI 300 has entered bear-market territory, property investment continues to decline, and China's high-tech exports reached a record $147bn in September, up 63% YoY. Weak domestic demand is increasingly translating into aggressive export competition and pressure on global corporate margins. •AI investment concerns: Massive hyperscaler capex commitments are raising questions about future returns. "No AI boom = no boom" captures how dependent earnings expectations have become on continued AI investment. •Bond market warning: US Treasuries have experienced their worst rolling 10-year returns in a century. Yet bonds are attracting renewed inflows as investors reassess growth risks. •A significant rotation: Technology funds attracted $18.8bn in a single week, while consumer funds experienced record outflows. Market leadership is becoming increasingly concentrated even as technology valuations face scrutiny. •2027 earnings expectations: Global technology EPS growth forecasts have climbed to 43%, leaving considerable room for disappointment if AI investment slows. The paradox is that weaker growth could support government bonds while simultaneously undermining the corporate earnings assumptions supporting equity valuations. The key risk is not necessarily an immediate market crash, but a combination of Chinese export deflation, tighter credit conditions and an AI investment slowdown. Are markets pricing a temporary correction, or the beginning of a more fundamental repricing of global growth expectations

Rye em ahh rouse

1/20 PROVING THAT BITCOIN IS A LIQUIDITY DECOY WITH SIMPLE DIFF EQUATIONS. “HODL” on to your socks. (a bit technical) ALSO The Fed is semi-lying, in fact, about “We would lose control of interest rates without IOR.” docs.google.com/document/d/1…