@GregDaco

Chief Economist @EYnews, @EY_US, @EY_Parthenon. Previously Chief Economist @OxfordEconomics, @IHSMarkit. Father of 3. Husband of 1. 🇺🇸 & 🇧🇪. Views are mine

 New York, NY
ey.com/en_us/strategy
Joined September 2011
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Pending sales of existing US homes fell to a record low in September as high mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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🏘️US housing starts plunge 5.2% m/m in September! ⚠️Follows 5.9% & 4.9% plunge in Aug/Jul to 2nd lowest pace post-pandemic (1.2mn units saar). 🏠Single-family construction is depressed 🔻-4.6% m/m ⬆️2.6% y/y 🌆Multi-fam starts plunge to 5-mo low 🔻-6.7% m/m 🔻 -24.9% y/y
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🏘️US housing permits slip in September and down 4.1% y/y 🏠Single-family starts lowest since 2023 🔻-4% m/m 🔻-5.9% y/y 🌆Multi-fam permits steady at 2019 levels ⬆️6.1% m/m 🔻 -1.1% y/y
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French government bonds dropped after a weekend of violent unrest, underlining the tension between protesters upset over the cost of living and a government that can’t pay to keep the peace bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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#China Puts Growth Back on Target With Stimulus Push, Export Boom: GDP 4.5% y/y in Q3 A split between a struggling consumer economy & a booming export sector widened further in September: ▶️Industrial production +5.5% y/y ▶️Retail +1.1% y/y ▶️Property infrastructure -20.6% y/y
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⚠️Strong import price inflation in September 📈Import prices +1.1% m/m 📈Fuel +4.8% 📈Nonfuel +0.7% 🔥Import price inflation: 8.1% y/y: fastest since Jul '22 🔥Nonfuel import inflation: 6.0%: fastest since Apr '22 🔥Capital gds import inflation 8.4%: fastest ever: AI led
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The surge in AI-related imports is leading to increased import price pressures that are filtering through to domestic producer and consumer price inflation
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Gregory Daco retweeted
Nick Timiraos
@NickTimiraosOct 15
The September CPI and PPI translate into a core PCE projection of around 0.34%, which would be the highest monthly reading since January. That would push the 12-month change to 3.1% (from 3% in August) and the 3-month annualized rate to 2.9% (from 2.0%).
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Markets positioned for a “hawkish hold” at October FOMC meeting
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⚠️Import prices +0.3% m/m in June, despite -0.4% fuel import prices 👀Monitor closely as nonfuel import price inflation has risen to 4.2% y/y: highest since Jun 22 📈Capital gds prices +5.7% y/y (all-time high): AI-led investment pull 📈Consumer prices: exporters recoup tariffs
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The surge in AI-related imports is leading to increased import price pressures that are filtering through to domestic producer and consumer price inflation
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What wasn't said... #Fed Chair Warsh did not give any indication of a possible rate hike with markets pricing 14% odds. In our opinion, this along with recent key Fed policymakers' remarks points to a "hawkish hold" at the October #FOMC meeting bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Warsh Boosts Market Expectations of Fed Hold in October

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did nothing to dispel market expectations that the US central bank will hold interest rates steady when it meets at the end of the month.

bloomberg.com
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We are LIVE at 9AM ET with @JanetOnTheMoney! GUESTS: - @Greenbackd - @RCWhalen - @MarkZandi - @GregDaco 🔊Tune in on @SXMBusiness🔊
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🔥The PPI #inflation report was ugly because of the magnitude of price increases AND the breadth 1⃣ Energy main factor driving largest goods price increase EVER 2⃣ Immediate diesel passthrough to airfare & truck transportation prices 3⃣ Margins also surged (machinery, hotels)
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🔥PPI #inflation come in hot 🔥Headline #PPI +1.3% m/m -- fastest since Mar '22 🔶Core +0.5% 🔥Gds +2.6% 🍳Food 1.2% ⛽️Energy 10.8% 🔥Core 0.3% 🔥Svc +0.8% 🚚Transport 3.4% ⚖️Trade 1.4% 🔥PPI: 6.3% y/y (+0.7pt) 🔥Core: 5.0% (+0.2)
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⚠️US consumers are still spending as we approach the #holiday season with low unemployment, healthy balance sheets and wealth accumulation in the driver's seat, but higher inflation is leading to depressed morale & income erosion, capping inflation-adjusted outlays
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#Retail sales cool in Sep ✅ Sales +0.8% m/m 🔶 Inflation-adj +0.1% ✅Core sales +0.1% 🔶Volumes -0% ⛽ Gas 6.4% 🛋 Furn 1.3% 👨‍🍳 Rest/bar 1.1% ⚕️ Health 0.7% 🎮 Elec 0.6% 🛒 Groc 0.4% 💻 Online 0.3% 🚗 Auto 0.2% 👗 Cloth 0% 🏬 Merch -0.1% ⚽ Sports -0.5% 🏠 Build mat -0.6%
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⚠️If prices rise too much/fast, consumers pull back 🔶Retail adj for inflation +0.1% m/m 🔻Core -0% 🛋 Furn 1.3% 🎮 Elec 1.3% 👨‍🍳 Rest/bar 0.9% 🛒 Groc 0.5% ⚕️ Health 0.4% 💻 Online 0.1% 👗 Cloth -0.3% 🚗 Auto -0.3% 🏠 Build mat -1.0% ⚽ Sports -2.3% ⛽ Gas -2.7% 🏬 Merch -3.1%
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Gregory Daco retweeted
Guy LeBas@lebas_janneyOct 14
A few #CPI takeaways
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🇺🇸 Broad #inflation pressure in Sep 📈#CPI +0.6% m/m ⚠️Core +0.3% 🍲Food +0% ⛽️Energy +5.2% (gas/diesel) 🟠Core gds +0.3% 🚗New 0.2% 🚘Used 0.7% 👕Apparel 0.3% 🟠Core svc +0.4% 🏘️Shelter 0.4% 🏡Rent 0.2% 🏠OER 0.3% 🏨Hotel 2.3% 🏥Med 0.3% 🛫Air 1.2% 🗺️Car rent 5.4%
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⚠️Where are the pressures coming from? 1⃣ Largest core goods price rise since Jan 2025: Car prices, men's apparel, toys & computers 2⃣ Largest core services gain in 5mo: Hotel prices, hospital & nursing homes, car rental, airfare, tuition, intra-city transport, sporting events
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🇺🇸 Short-term #inflation dynamics point to brewing inflationary pressures 🔥Headline CPI 🔺12-mo: 3.7% ⬇️6-mo: 3.7% 🔺3-mo: 4.6% 🔥Core CPI 🔺12-mo: 2.6% 🔺6-mo: 2.9% 🔺3mo: 3.4%
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