Canada secures major win for canola sector
China has extended the suspension of its 100% tariff on Canadian canola meal until the end of 2028.
Announced today (Nov 4) by Trade Minister Sidhu after talks in Beijing. canada.ca/en/global-affairs/…
Had Grok build this. How the global veg oil complex has been tightening for years — stocks-to-use has drifted to a projected ~9.2% in 2026/27. Look what happens if El Niño hits and cuts Indonesian palm by 2.5–3 MMT: the ratio drops toward ~8.4%.
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This El Niño rainfall map (June 2026–May 2027) points to reduced rainfall across much of India, Australia, and Indonesia. That raises risks for pulse production in India, wheat in both India and Australia, and palm oil in Indonesia.
Greg retweeted
China’s farm tariff breaks on canola meal and peas run out Dec 31.
Beijing still hasn't said if they’re extending the deal or pulling the plug.
Roughly $2B+ in Canadian farm exports are riding on a summit decision in Shenzhen next month.
If you’re pricing delivery for early 2027, ask your buyer how they’re handling the risk.
The Daily Kernel Newsletter
Greg retweeted
This is a significant development for the Indian pulses market.
🚨 INDIA MAY CUT PULSES IMPORT DUTIES
India is considering lower import tariffs on pulses to boost supplies and cool food inflation
Possible move:
• Red lentils: currently 10% duty
• Yellow peas: currently 30%
• Chickpeas: may remain excluded
• Pigeon pea & black gram: already duty-free until March 2027
Why it matters: India’s 2026 pulse crop is expected to fall sharply after a patchy monsoon, while festive-season demand is rising.
In 2024-25, India produced 25.7 MMT of pulses but imported 7.3 MMT — imports covered ~23% of consumption.
The key question now: Will the government open the import window wider before the domestic crop shortage tightens further?
#Pulses #India #Urad #Chana #Masoor #AgriTwitter
Has anyone actually sized how much cropland stays out this year because diesel is this expensive?
Grok’s est. 1–2% of global cereal area. 7–15 million hectares. Fuel is only part of it. In some countries the real killer is no operating credit for fuel, seed, and fertilizer.
India: Pulse imports surge 62% in Apr-July amid El Nino concerns - BigMint concerns over lower domestic output amid the El Nino threat bigmint.co/insights/detail/i…
India’s Pulse Imports Could Double to 10-12 MT as Consumption Rises eng.ruralvoice.in/national/i…
Today: Crude is up. Soyoil is not.
Trump–Xi cut tariffs on a list of U.S. ag goods and left soybeans off it.
USA Soy Yields better than expected.
Palm already broke the 5,049 high and is sitting on 4,650.
Canola harvest in Canada is underway about 1 week to go.
US Soybean Outlook Strengthens on Higher Production | Farms.com farms.com/ag-industry-news/u… Improved yields and acreage boost soybean supplies while global oilseed demand remains strong
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Both canola and soybean crush margins are healthy. Canola has gained $46/mt since January 2026. I suspect the expected production shortfall in Canada is one reason crush basis has narrowed earlier than normal. p.s Soy is in MT and Canola in usd.
insightag.com
How many bushels of wheat to buy 1 oz of gold.
2020: ~400
Jan 2026: 941
Today: ~600
Interesting.
There's this website that goes back to year 1250 and compares gold to loaf of bread.
goldtobread.com/
Soy oil isn’t tracking crude like it did a few months ago.
Crude spent time near $100. Beans hit 3-year highs. Soy oil stayed stuck around 65–75¢.
Biofuel plants have more feedstock options now. Note that soy oil inventories are down.
Greg retweeted
El Niño-driven dryness is tightening its grip on Australia’s wheat belt.
From Aug 22–Sep 20, Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria received no more than 25% of normal rainfall, while South Australia also remained notably dry.
The timing is critical: Aug–Oct is a key grain-production stage for Australian winter wheat.
The 2023–24 El Niño saw Australia’s wheat production fall 34% YoY.
If this dryness persists, Australia’s wheat crop could come under serious yield pressure — adding another bullish weather risk to the global wheat balance.
#Wheat #ElNino #AgWeather #AgTwitter #AgWx
Market Flash: Poorer yields & High diesel add fuel to Canola Bulls. Considering the year wheat yields are acceptable, neutral for prairie basis. Greg@ insightag.com