Griffin | Investor

Do I sell all $PYPL and put it into $PGY?

$TDMX revenue up 1,348% since 2022 $TMDX operating income turning positive What more do we need to say? $TMDX risk/reward looks great even at 50x earnings

$LTH LifeTime Fitness quietly has luxury brand economics hiding in plain sight. 2 things are true since Covid hit 1: Gross margins have drastically improved - 47% gross margins 2: Operating margins have flipped positive - 15% Operating margin TTM Gyms were hit hard during covid, $LTH IPO'd and capitalized right when things were at the worst for their business 15-20% Revenue growth the past 3 years

$OSCR $11B+ in revenue $2.2B enterprise value Something doesn’t add up.

$JD buy broken stocks, not businesses Since 2021: -Market cap: -62%📉 -Revenue per share: +59%📈 Broken stock ≠ Broken company Long $JD

$ZETA pullback ≠ sell signal • Long-term uptrend still intact (zoom out) • $24 → $18 = reset, not reversal • Fundamentals improving while price cools What’s actually happening: → Operating leverage kicking in → Margins expanding → Cash-rich, no balance sheet stress Markets punish noise, not thesis. When price pulls back while fundamentals improve, that’s usually an opportunity, not a warning. Smart money buys doubt. 📈

Two ways to look at $UNH 1. Company is doomed, margins are hit, they’ll never recover. 2. Temporary slip up in earnings, market is overreacting, stock is undervalued Most see #1. It’s a simple linear reasoning. Fears of healthcare funding and political involvement is a risk here #2 is where investors see upside with lower downside risk. $UNH is a cash flow machine, the dominant player in healthcare. Yes, guidance for next year is soft. They are looking to get back to higher margin business instead of 10-12% growth a year. $UNH is a buying opportunity to get a high quality company at a reasonable price You won’t see exponential growth It’s security LONG $UNH

$UNH zoom out We are trading below 2018 highs Revenue is up $221B since then

🚨 $KNSL has been a quiet 10-bagger since 2017 Here's a quality company trading at a reasonable valuation: - Revenues: $1.8B (32% 3 yr growth) - Operating Income: $608M (33% margin) - Cash and invested assets: $4.9B - Minimal debt ($199M) - Market Cap: $9.3B - P/E: 19x earnings $KNSL has industry leading loss ratios in the E&S insurance business (niche insurance) $KNSL risk/reward long term looks amazing here

Valuation makes no sense: $WMT vs $MELI $WMT trades at a premium EV/EBIT to $MELI: • $WMT: ~35x • $MELI: ~32x Now look under the hood 👇 📈 Revenue growth (3yr): • $MELI: ~39% • $WMT: ~5% 💰 Gross margins: • $MELI: ~45% • $WMT: ~25% 🌎 Runway: • $WMT → mature U.S. market • $MELI → early innings across LatAm (e-commerce + fintech) So why does the slower, lower-margin, mature business trade richer? 🧠 The market is paying up for perceived safety and discounting actual growth. My take: At today’s prices, every day of the week I’m taking $MELI over $WMT. One stock is valued on what it’s already proven. The other is discounted despite what it’s still becoming. That gap is where returns are made.

Fundamentals = What to buy Technicals = When to buy Also, markets aren't efficient

$UNH broke the 200MA Long term reversal in play Sector rotation from growth to value is likely IMO Agree/Disagree?

$NFLX zoom out What makes them special is scale and pricing power Margins (2015-2025)🧐 4.5% 👉 29.5% They created a product that everyone wants In 2015 nobody would have guessed margins would be 29.5% That’s what happens with operating leverage As $NFLX grew, it experience network effects. More users influenced other users to become members. It is inconvenient now to not have Netflix. Cheaper than cable, better shows, positive feedback 🔁 $NFLX is a habit for tons of people which is why the stock has boomed

$MELI has not grown under 33% since 2020 Remarkable

$TTD stock is disconnected from reality Since 2020: - Operating Income: +265% - Stock Price: -55% Price ≠ reality The company is improving, and the crowd is against $TTD

$TTD Revenue still compounding Stock down 70% in one year $TTD was overvalued before, getting closer to the buy zone

$PGY WOW Gross margins also slightly growing/stewdy $PGY: - Rev Growth: 26% CAGR since 2024 - Getting more profitable each quarter - Non-operating expenses eating net margins Is $PGY at 8x Forward PE a buy?

Love this @TedHZhang Isaac Newton has a great quote: “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants” The same applies to markets and life Learn from those ahead of you Study Buffett, Ackman, Greenblatt, Bernstein, Druckenmiller, Soros, Dalio, Marks, Lynch Anyone better than you It’s our competitive advantage with technology and the internet Never been easier and cheaper to learn AI is free Internet is free Take advantage and harness the system Newton was one of the greatest minds ever… And he still attributes his success to others teachings

Everyone gave up on $JD. The chart didn’t. $JD is down over 70% from 2021 highs — sentiment is destroyed, positioning is light, and expectations are near zero. That’s where asymmetric setups form. 📉 Technical read: - Long-term .618 Fib ≈ $75 (macro upside reference, not a target) - 2024 likely marked the cycle low - Price has shifted from making lower lows to higher lows - $28 = major resistance and inflection point 📊 What stands out: - Tight consolidation after a long decline - Sellers have lost momentum - No breakout yet — but downside pressure is fading 🧠 Why this matters:
$JD trades at a value discount, China is universally hated, and risk/reward is skewed to the upside from here. If $JD holds above the $28–30 range, the path of least resistance shifts higher. Not calling a bottom.
Just paying attention before it’s popular