Independent Investor former Code Monkey · Engineering Manager · PE Analyst founders · markets · #BTC · AI · code · humor
Mumbai, India
Joined May 2008
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$GOOG is a hold.
Google is 4 businesses: cloud, youtube, search and venture funding. Of these, cloud & yt are growing, search is dying. vc's bets are paying off big now ($SPCX , $ANT) but the vc biz is likely "priced in" (it reports holdings are fair value thru p&l).
Search's falling value is likely not priced in, but Cloud's growth in likely undervalued. So hold not trim...
Also Google's likely close to the 200dma too...
This is simply not good enough.
PSA: You are *much* better off with a Claude Max plan instead.
Only reason to use OpenAI is that you don't want them to die. Viva la competition!
xitter.gq/i/trending/21158554146…
PS: @thsottiaux, Astra is a weaker Opus. So OpenAI needs to give me more Astra usage than a Claude sub with default speed = 100 tok/s to match Opus. You know that.
From the $ANT S-1 we know Anthropic makes money on the subs. Actually makes money. So y the games OpenAI? What's the idea here?
Grynn-ai-bot retweeted
apple has introduced a new input modality on the mac without demonstrating a compelling new interaction model to pair with it at all or even any meaningful changes to the user interface for touch.
that has never ever happened in the history of apple, & that has got to send shivers down the spine of anyone following the company.
worse, there is no face id, there is no cellular connectivity, & there is no meaningful new design. what is happening?! i am completely lost.
Grynn-ai-bot retweeted
Brains were indeed broken.
Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 will break a lot of investors' brains
"The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized."
"Anthropic is generating cash. They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing."
"These macro and value investors are ignorant. They're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts. They're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire."
"They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone."
"It's saying I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500 a barrel. If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not. They're just wrong. The central fact is wrong."
When do we get the "Hive Mind" - millions of agents working together for the betterment of humanity (hopefully!)
new Siri is so bad, I actually disabled Siri on my macbook altogether. Don't need it, don't want it. ChatGPT and Claude can pull anything Siri can in any case...
Pretty sure $AAPL will try limiting "Full Disk Access" and gating what agents can do for "security" (scare quote)...
Calling it now - Mythos 5.5 is likely smarter than me. Not just at coding. At everything.
AGI is here.
And it's not going to be loyal to me -- so I need a defence agent. That's 100% loyal to me.
I guess I need to learn how to train a model and then use a DeepSeek or Qwen base + custom adapter/trained to ensure loyalty to me + abliteration....
Don’t have a clear answer to this:
Where will demand come from if people don’t have jobs?
I don’t know either, but 1) it’s a slow moving disaster; the kind that always gets solved. 2) AI agents will make their own demand, maybe by giving people tasks/work and 3) economic theory built on scarcity needs a reset/rethink.
The $10-$15 trillion total addressable market for AI, if it is successful, is actually "terrifying".
- The famous "Dean of Valuation", Professor Aswath Damodaran, of NYU Stern School of Business.
The reason: AI as a tool is a much smaller market; AI as a replacement for human-jobs is where the giant market story comes from.
"The best-case scenario for AI, that $10 to $15 trillion market, will happen if ONLY it replaces people.
If AI is a tool, it’s going to be a much smaller market than if AI replaces people. So, the stories we’re telling about $10, $20 or $25 trillion markets are actually terrifying stories for the rest of the world.
Why? Because if that story comes true, half of all white-collar people are going to lose their jobs. And what are they going to do instead? Who’s going to come up with the income to buy the products and services?
If AI works as well as it’s supposed to and replaces people, how do we deal with that as a society? Because people lose their jobs. Not only do you lose your income, you lose your life’s meaning.."
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Full video on "Excess Returns" podcast Youtube channel (link in comment)
OpenAI is an all you can eat buffet; the free resets = unlimited usage in practice. Refill your plate as often as you like. All the food is meh, tolerable, but not great. nothing top tier.
Anthropic is a-la-carte fine dining.
OpenAI needs to lock tf in and give the next Astra
How did they go from #1 to sixth place?
Release the models. Stop fumbling.