A hedge fund manager put a jar of 1,776 jelly beans in front of a room at Google and proved in two rounds why most investors will always lose money. for free. His name is Joel Greenblatt. Gotham Capital. 50% a year for a decade. he asked the room to guess how many jelly beans were in the jar. First round: everyone wrote their guess silently. no talking. no looking around. the average was 1,771. five off. almost perfect. Second round: people said their guesses out loud. heard each other. adjusted. the average collapsed to 850. same room. same jar. the only thing that changed was influence. He told the room: the second guess is the stock market. everyone knows what they just read in the paper. what the guy next to them said. what they saw in the news. the cold independent guess was better. that is not how the market works. but that is where the opportunity is. Then he showed 20 years of data. the cheapest 20% of stocks averaged 38% a year. the most expensive averaged the least. the strategy is simple. the reason it still works is that people are still crazy. and they always will be. 55 minutes. one jar. still free.