📢 HTX Research's Weekly Crypto Forecast: 1. Tech Earnings: A Key Stress Test for the AI Trade U.S. earnings season enters a critical stage this week, with Meta, Tesla, Netflix and other major tech companies set to report. The Nasdaq fell around 4.5% last week, while the semiconductor sector dropped more than 10%, as concerns intensified over the scale of AI investment, corporate debt and returns on capital in a high-rate environment. (Reuters) The focus this week is therefore no longer just whether revenue and earnings beat expectations, but whether tech giants continue to raise AI capex and whether those investments are translating into actual profits. For crypto, further cooling in the AI trade could weaken risk appetite in tech stocks and spill over into BTC and high-beta crypto assets. 2. Oil & Long-Term Treasury Yields: Is Inflation Pressure Really Easing? Brent crude briefly approached $110 last week, as Middle East tensions and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returned as major drivers of global asset prices. Oil has since eased to around $107 early this week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen to approximately 5.09%, temporarily easing concerns over inflation and further rate hikes. (Reuters) However, both oil prices and long-term yields remain elevated. The key question is whether the recent pullback is merely a short-term correction or the beginning of an unwind in the “high oil, high inflation, high rates” environment. For BTC, further declines in oil prices and long-term yields would improve the macro liquidity backdrop, while another surge in long-term rates remains one of the most important external risks. 3. Continued BTC & ETH ETF Outflows: When Will Institutional Selling Finally Ease? Persistent ETF weakness remains one of the most important internal signals for the crypto market. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $228 million in net outflows last week, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw around $320 million in net outflows, with ETH experiencing withdrawals across several consecutive trading sessions. (SatoshiNakamoto.TV) More notably, Bitcoin ETFs had already recorded approximately $679 million in net outflows the previous week, indicating that institutional demand has yet to return as a stable source of buying. If BTC stabilizes and ETF flows return to sustained net inflows this week, conditions would become more supportive of a lasting recovery. If outflows continue, however, it would suggest that crypto remains in a risk-reduction phase and that the sustainability of any rebound should be viewed cautiously. #HTX #Crypto

📢 HTX Research 本周加密市场前瞻： 1. 科技巨头财报：AI 交易迎来关键压力测试 本周美股财报季进入关键阶段，Meta、Tesla、Netflix 等科技公司将陆续公布业绩。上周纳斯达克下跌约 4.5%，半导体板块跌幅超过 10%，市场开始明显担忧 AI 投资规模、企业负债以及高利率环境下的资本回报。(Reuters) 因此，本周财报关注的重点已经不只是收入和利润是否超预期，更重要的是科技巨头是否继续提高 AI 资本开支，以及这些投入能否兑现为实际盈利。对于加密市场而言，如果 AI 交易进一步降温，科技股风险偏好的收缩很可能继续向 BTC 和高 Beta 加密资产传导。 2. 油价与长端美债：通胀压力是否出现真正缓解 上周布伦特原油一度升至 110 美元附近，中东局势和霍尔木兹海峡运输风险重新成为全球资产定价的重要变量。本周初油价有所回落至 107 美元附近，10 年期美债收益率也降至约 5.09%，短期缓解了市场对通胀和进一步加息的担忧。(Reuters) 但目前油价和长期利率仍处于明显高位，市场真正需要确认的是，这轮回落究竟只是短期修正，还是此前“高油价、高通胀、高利率”组合开始松动。对 BTC 而言，如果油价继续回落并带动长端收益率下行，将明显改善宏观流动性环境；反之，长端利率重新冲高仍是当前最重要的外部风险之一。 3. BTC、ETH ETF 持续流出：机构资金何时真正止血 过去两周，加密市场最值得重视的内部信号仍然是 ETF 资金持续偏弱。上周美国现货比特币 ETF 合计净流出约 2.28 亿美元，现货以太坊 ETF 净流出约 3.20 亿美元，其中 ETH 已连续多个交易日出现资金撤离。(SatoshiNakamoto.TV) 更值得注意的是，比特币 ETF 前一周已经净流出约 6.79 亿美元，说明当前机构资金仍未重新形成稳定买盘。本周如果 BTC 能够企稳，同时 ETF 资金重新转为连续净流入，市场才更有条件形成持续反弹；如果资金继续撤出，则说明当前加密市场仍处于去风险阶段，反弹的持续性需要保持谨慎。 #HTX #Crypto

📢 HTX Research Weekly Crypto Market Forecast Here are the three key events we’re watching this week 👇: 1. U.S. CPI: The Week’s Most Important Macro Pricing Event September CPI, due Wednesday, will be the key macro data point this week, with headline inflation expected to rise to around 3.7% YoY. Elevated oil prices are adding renewed inflationary pressure, while the 10-year Treasury yield has already climbed as high as around 5.36%, making markets increasingly sensitive to further increases in long-term rates. If CPI again exceeds expectations, markets could raise the probability of a December rate hike, pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher. For BTC, this remains the most direct macro pressure at present. Thursday’s PPI and retail sales data will provide further confirmation of this trend. 2. Q3 Earnings Season Begins: A Key Fundamental Test for the AI Trade U.S. Q3 earnings season officially begins this week. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock on Wednesday. In tech, ASML reports Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still near record highs, the combination of elevated interest rates and high valuations means markets are increasingly dependent on earnings growth to justify current valuations. In particular, results and guidance from TSMC and ASML will provide an important test of whether the AI capex cycle remains strong. For crypto, continued strength in tech stocks despite long-term yields above 5% would help sustain broader risk appetite. Conversely, any weakening in AI fundamentals could spill over into BTC and high-beta crypto assets. 3. BTC & ETH ETF Flows: Can Institutional Funds End the Recent Retreat? One notable shift in crypto markets last week was renewed weakness in ETF flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $485 million and $244 million on October 7 and 8 respectively, before returning to a modest net inflow of around $21 million on Friday. Overall flows for October remain negative. ETH flows have been even weaker, with significant net outflows since October 6, including more than $360 million combined on October 6 and 7 alone. With BTC back around the $82,000–$84,000 range, the key question this week is whether ETF flows can return to sustained net inflows. If prices stabilize alongside renewed institutional demand, the market could regain a positive upward feedback loop. If ETF outflows persist, however, the $80,000 level may continue to face repeated tests. #Crypto #HTX #Bitcoin #BTC

📢 HTX Research 本周加密市场前瞻： 1. 美国 CPI：本周最重要的宏观定价事件 本周三公布的 9 月 CPI 将是市场最核心的宏观数据，目前市场预计整体通胀同比可能升至 3.7%左右。油价高企正在重新推升通胀压力，而 10 年期美债收益率此前已经一度升至 5.36%附近，市场对长期利率进一步上行的敏感度明显增加。如果 CPI 再度超预期，市场可能重新提高 12 月加息概率，美元和美债收益率都有进一步上行风险；对于 BTC 而言，这仍然是当前最直接的宏观压力来源。周四的 PPI 和零售销售数据将进一步验证这一方向。 2. Q3 财报季开启：AI 交易迎来重要基本面验证 本周美股正式进入三季度财报季。摩根大通、高盛、花旗和富国银行将在周二率先公布业绩，周三轮到美国银行、摩根士丹利和贝莱德；科技板块方面，ASML 周三、台积电周四公布财报。当前标普 500 和纳斯达克仍处于历史高位附近，而高利率与高估值并存，使市场越来越依赖盈利增长来消化估值压力。尤其是台积电与 ASML 的业绩及指引，将成为验证 AI 资本开支周期是否仍然强劲的重要窗口。对加密市场而言，如果科技股能够在 5%以上的长端利率环境中继续保持强势，将有助于维持整体风险偏好；反之，一旦 AI 交易出现基本面松动，BTC 和高 Beta 加密资产也很难完全独善其身。 3. BTC、ETH ETF 资金流：机构资金能否结束连续撤退 上周加密市场一个明显的变化是 ETF 资金重新转弱。10 月 7 日和 8 日，美国现货比特币 ETF 分别净流出约 4.85 亿和 2.44 亿美元，直到周五才恢复约 2,100 万美元的小幅净流入；10 月以来整体资金仍处于净流出状态。ETH 的资金情况更弱，10 月 6 日以来连续出现明显净流出，仅 6 日和 7 日两天合计就流出超过 3.6 亿美元。在 BTC 已重新回到 8.2万—8.4 万美元附近的背景下，本周需要重点观察 ETF 是否真正转回持续净流入。如果价格企稳同时机构资金重新回归，行情才更有可能重新形成向上的正反馈；如果 ETF 继续失血，则 8 万美元附近仍可能反复接受考验。 #HTX #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto

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