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Joined June 2009
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On the eve of the election the betting markets are calling a Labour majority as an almost dead cert.
Labour majority 97%
Hung parliament 3%
There’s an 85% chance they will be the official opposition up from 66% in the dark days of the campaign a few weeks ago.
Election betting market 23 June
England slipped from favourites at 4/1 (20%) to at 5/1 (17%). Meanwhile Scotland are 2/1 (33%) likely to qualify for the second round. Hang on a minute this isn’t politics. No, because who cares now the football’s started? Oh, go on then. 🧵
Sporting index mid-points for number of seats have rebounded a little since Monday’s nadir but are still awful for Sunak.
Labour – 426 (-6)
Conservatives – 114 (+6)
Lib Dems – 57 (-1)
Ed Davey (Lib Dem Leader) will be happy looking at the sporting index seat projection. Their midpoint has his party winning 58 seats. Just 50 behind the Tories midpoint at 108. On Betfair they think the Libs have a 23% chance of being the official opposition come July 5th.
Labour edge ever closer to certainty on the betting markets. The implied chance that they will win a majority is now 95%, up 2 percentage points since last Friday. With the Tories now on less than 1% is it any wonder most of them seem to have given up.
It probably doesn’t help that Braverman, the once-promising but troublemaking striker, is openly talking about a free transfer to Reform. Their stalwart defender Schapps, previously always prepared to go out and lie, is now crying about a wipeout.