
24 years old. Space Systems Operator for the US Space Force. Storm Chaser for @SparkServiceWX. My views donโt represent the DoD. ๐ช๏ธ=31. My YouTube โฌ๏ธ
In your Walls
Joined September 2022
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So, I, uh, made a prints shop where I sell snapshots of my whacky misadventures
hascle.picfair.com
Hayden โ4๏ธโฃ๐โโ Lester retweeted
Given only the attached 12z observed data from the morning of a severe weather event, where would you target for the b*st chance of seeing tornados?
No spoiling the day if you recognize it. More maps in replies.
Answers after dinner time EST
Hayden โ4๏ธโฃ๐โโ Lester retweeted
Given only the attached 12z observed data from the morning of a severe weather event, where would you target for the b*st chance of seeing tornados?
No spoiling the day if you recognize it. More maps in replies.
Answers after dinner time EST
I posted like TWO pictures of my face and all of a sudden like 25 sex bots follow me. Wtf. We need another purge.
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Hayden โ4๏ธโฃ๐โโ Lester retweeted
Almost Three Years Ago One Of The Most Well Known Modern Tornadoes Would Strike The Town Of Rolling Fork, Mississippi.
Three Years Later We Compiled The Stories Of That Night Across The Small Town.
9 Days Remain - A @Undecided_Media Documentary.
March 24th, 2023 - 8:00PM CST
Hayden โ4๏ธโฃ๐โโ Lester retweeted
Given only the attached 12z observed data from the morning of a severe weather event, where would you target for the b*st chance of seeing tornados?
No spoiling the day if you recognize it. More maps in replies.
Answers after dinner time EST
Iโm not Catholic but this guy is onto something
When being just and honest comes at a price, pay it. When forgiving seems like a defeat, forgive. When everyone tells you to think of yourselves first, do not be afraid to put yourselves in the last place. Be willing to give up time, money, comfort and plans to serve others. May those who see you find themselves asking: โWhy do they live in this way? Where do they get this freedom? Why do they love one another so much?โ #ApostolicJourney #Uruguay
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Hayden โ4๏ธโฃ๐โโ Lester retweeted
When being just and honest comes at a price, pay it. When forgiving seems like a defeat, forgive. When everyone tells you to think of yourselves first, do not be afraid to put yourselves in the last place. Be willing to give up time, money, comfort and plans to serve others. May those who see you find themselves asking: โWhy do they live in this way? Where do they get this freedom? Why do they love one another so much?โ #ApostolicJourney #Uruguay
Hayden โ4๏ธโฃ๐โโ Lester retweeted
Turns out, more than a few people missed the NAM following its discontinuation.
@recast and @DeepGuessr replicated its configuration, ported it to GPU, and are disseminating its data for free in real time - and it is now live on PolarWx:
polarwx.com/models/?model=woโฆ
Turns out people really do love the NAM despite its flaws. We @recast have decided to continue to offer our WOOF-NAM 12km for free indefinitely (link below).
Itโs also important to understand that we are cold starting from GFS Analysis which naturally does slightly change model outcomes compared to starting from a native NAM analysis.
Because of that, we will be running quite a few hindcasts of both popular and requested dates and model inits so people can compare. If anyone has any examples theyโd like to see, Iโll run them and put it on the site.
woof-nam.recastsystems.com/iโฆ
Congratulations to Israel for winning the midterms
AIPAC congratulates the hundreds of pro-Israel Democrats and Republicans who won their elections last night. More than 234 candidates supported by AIPAC members have already won, with many additional races still too close to call. We congratulate Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries on the resounding victories for their caucuses.
AIPAC members are determinedย to expand their political activism in the cycles ahead. Our community will increase its support for Democrats and Republicans who recognize that a strong partnership with Israel helps keep both countries secure, advances peace and stability, promotes democratic values, and grows our economy through trade and innovation.
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Hayden โ4๏ธโฃ๐โโ Lester retweeted
NOAA retired the NAM this week. We ported it to the GPU and it's back, better than ever: WOOF-NAM, open source.
- 12 km CONUS, all NAM physics, 24 h forecast in ~20 min on a single RTX 5090 (32 GB).
- 8 GPUs: 6 h in 92 s. Multi-card is bitwise to single card.
- 4 km CONUS, 24 h in under 9 min on 8 GPUs. 3 km nests anywhere on Earth (Europe, Japan, CONUS): 48 h in ~7 min on one card.
SStarts from the NAM analysis or GFS today, IFS open data in the next release. Beside the operational NAM from the same cycle it's hard to tell them apart (pics).
Today it needs one 32 GB card for the full 12 km CONUS; ~15 GB is the target, coming soon.
github.com/recastsystems/wooโฆ
Itโs sad to say that this is the first time I have ever seen a politician admit they were wrong. Unfortunately, JD, you realized this about 8 months too late.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"โwhether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasnโt sharp enough down the stretch. Iโm sure thatโs true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollsterโone of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday weโd lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (Sheโs also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcementโby focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, โI told you soโ: youโre right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Letโs take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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