Comms + Software Sector Head @Hedgeye (Internet, Media & Cable/Telco); SpaceX+ Anthropic + OpenAI NOT Investment Advice
Down the AI squirrel hole!
Joined December 2018
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Andrew Freedman, CFA 🦅 retweeted
We've been short $BOOT for the last $80 in downside. I think the stock still gets cut in half from here. Terrible trends this quarter -- squarely decelerating across the board into 3Q. E-comm SSS turned negative in Oct. In what world should ecomm EVER be negative? This company is signing below market rents and is overearning massively. Incremental ROIC looks deathly...
Remember based on the model release cadence and development cycle history, OAI typically outperforms Anthropic in Q3!
We saw the same exact happen in 2025 with the release of OAI pro model which was better than Opus 4.1!
EVERYONE saw it in the data then, just like they did this year.
And then it wasn’t until late Q3/early Q4 where $ANT started to pull ahead!
Let’s see what happens in Q4, but I maintain that Opus 5.5 will be looked at as a critical milestone in advancing AI use cases beyond coding to broader knowledge work…
We said this before the data showed an acceleration in OpenRouter and elsewhere…
Since the model release and our tracking of product development, there is also a lot of reasons to believe that $ANT revenue trajectory has started to improve sequentially…
The name of the game is not reporting the weather, but forecasting it accurately….
Incremental capacity in Q3 supporting OAI growth came from the $AMZN AWS deal...
Anthropic, PBC’s (ticker: ANT) S-1 lists SIC code 7372 – Services-Prepackaged Software as its Primary Standard Industrial Classification Code Number
@HedgeyeDJ
Well look at that... $ANT is mostly a consumption-based software business. Surprise surprise! 🙃
"Consumption-based revenue increased from $288 million, or 75% of total revenue, for the year ended December 31, 2024, to $3.8 billion, or 83% of total revenue, for the year ended December 31, 2025, to $13.1 billion, or 80% of total revenue, for the six months ended June 30, 2026."
"Subscription-based revenue increased from $98 million, or 25% of total revenue, to $789 million, or 17% of total revenue, to $3.2 billion, or 20% of total revenue, over the same periods. The higher increase in consumption-based revenue reflects the growth in customers with $100,000 or more of revenue on a TTM basis."
Andrew Freedman, CFA 🦅 retweeted
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec
Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
Andrew Freedman, CFA 🦅 retweeted
No, WebMCP isn't replacing MCP.
MCP connects agents to your services.
WebMCP connects agents to your website while it's open and the user's in the loop.
Here's how they fit together ⤵️
Seasonality impacting consumption trends... Love seeing this because it confirms our thinking regarding the timing decisions for increasing usage limits and also partly reason for the "slowdown" we saw during the summer months... $ANT
"Our customer usage patterns have also typically exhibited seasonality, particularly around holiday and vacation periods in the summer and winter, when certain workflows slow down and overall customer activity declines.
For example, developer commits and feature launches are typically slower during the code freezes that many companies schedule over holidays. Consistent with this pattern, for the two weeks ended January 2, 2026, total customer spend declined by approximately 20% compared to the prior two weeks ended December 19, 2025.
However, our historical growth rates may mask the impact of seasonal trends on our results. These dynamics are inherent aspects of a pay-for-intelligence revenue model and may be important determinants of our financial results in future periods."
About halfway through this thing... and no real surprises from my side (yet) $ANT
Well look at that... $ANT is mostly a consumption-based software business. Surprise surprise! 🙃
"Consumption-based revenue increased from $288 million, or 75% of total revenue, for the year ended December 31, 2024, to $3.8 billion, or 83% of total revenue, for the year ended December 31, 2025, to $13.1 billion, or 80% of total revenue, for the six months ended June 30, 2026."
"Subscription-based revenue increased from $98 million, or 25% of total revenue, to $789 million, or 17% of total revenue, to $3.2 billion, or 20% of total revenue, over the same periods. The higher increase in consumption-based revenue reflects the growth in customers with $100,000 or more of revenue on a TTM basis."
Andrew Freedman, CFA 🦅 retweeted
Emergency WAF ruleset update for 2026-10-25 adds two new detections for CVE-2026-111497. They default to log mode so you can audit impact. Check existing overrides to avoid false positives.
developers.cloudflare.com/ch…
Opus 5.5 consumes more tokens and also Claude code spins up a ton more agents... So it's actually more productive on per task basis but consumes more tokens so you hit limits faster... Also pushing more users to auto mode.
Andrew Freedman, CFA 🦅 retweeted
While you're waiting for GTA 6...
Spent a bunch of tokens over the last few weeks building a fully procedural New York simulation.
mrdoob.github.io/slop-newyor…
It's only 784KB gzipped and the code is on github, so you can do whatever you want with it ✌️
