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Cheers to a happy & healthy 2026! Below are all timestamped Long/Short ideas for 2025 and vs respective benchmarks. Appreciate everyone's support.
Our average return per idea (active & closed ideas) is 16%. 76% hit rate. Short ideas accounted for 41% of all ideas.
For tech research subscription, see below. We're adding a new product in 2026, geared for traders. Stay tuned.
insights.hedgeye.com/global-…
$NVDA $CRWV $NBIS $SE $BABA $TCEHY $AAPL $POET $ONTO 5930.KR $MU $DIDIY $SITM $MNSO $WYFI $MPNGY $XIACY $VRT $VRNS $PDD $AMAT
Pretty sure we got more hate on $CRWV when we initiated before Bernstein
"We caught a lot of hate when we initiated on CRWV with a $56 price target seven months ago. Today, it's a lot harder to find bulls - certainly some of them just don't call us anymore, but there seems to be more broad acceptance of the challenges of this business model. Could this turn around? Maybe: it's a wildly volatile, momentum-driven stock, but barring major moves, the fundamentals are probably stuck." - Bernstein
We continue to be defensive. We exited $NVDA Long on a Rubin issue. Last week, we flipped one of the hottest stocks in the world - Kioxia - from Long to Short.
$KXIAY $285A.T has been a big winner for us this year - up ~115% since our Bull call in March 2026. But the next 6-12 months will be a different game.
For access:
insights.hedgeye.com/global-…
Felix Wang, CFA retweeted
“Total demand for your tokens may be going up, but if the price is flat or falling, then you’re not making more money.”
Global Technology Sector Head Felix Wang @HedgeyeTech explains why Chinese AI competition threatens Anthropic's growth.
Read the full article 👇
We have been more cautious on the AI trade in the past 2 months, which is why we have been removing some of our top AI winners or even flipping to Short.
This year, we have been early in identifying key, concerning themes in global LLMs - examples include: 1) Anthropic’s growth missing the buyside bar for Q3 (which happened this week) (see our presentation: OpenAI>Anthropic in Q3 2026; 2) Chinese open-weight models unleashing a brutal, global price war; 3) model distillation distorting the frontier race; 4) monetization debate: spend matters a lot more than tokens; 5) commoditization risk with intelligence and cost; 6) quick end to tokenmaxxing; 7) which LLM is good enough to do the work; 8) model fatigue; 9) AI bubbles in China. See our previous AI decks for more details. As a result, sky high growth expectations need to be cut. Our global LLM database has expanded to 1,034 models.
Felix Wang, CFA retweeted
I thought $NVDA GPUs are banned in China … wife material.
Felix Wang, CFA retweeted
ANTHROPIC’S IPO VALUATION EXPECTATIONS DROP FROM $2 TRILLION TO $1.5 TRILLION
Some investors are considering a $1.5 trillion valuation for Anthropic’s upcoming IPO, down 25% from earlier expectations of $2 trillion.
Anthropic reported $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue, up 45% quarter-over-quarter, but growth slowed sharply after revenue more than doubled in Q2.
The company also reported adjusted profitability for the quarter.
The key concern: Slowing revenue growth and rising AI infrastructure costs could weigh on one of the most anticipated IPOs.
Source: Reuters Exclusive
Decent gathering at $SMTC Investor Day …I’m stopping by since it’s close to OCP
We will unveil our takeaways from @OpenComputePrj next Tuesday to clients —including a big finding on compute that I don’t think is factored into the market yet
So revs QoQ slowed from 140% to 46%…maybe Q3 ARR is only $68bn?
Anthropic revenue jumps to $16.8bn in third quarter ft.trib.al/lvCLXoo
Felix Wang, CFA retweeted
Tourists are all over $CRWV now. @HedgeyeTech has been The Bear for a while - it was a focus name on our recent AI Bubble "Big Theme" presentation too
Scary comments from $CRWV (our #1 Short):
1) Co-founder McBee said stronger investment-grade credit ratings could help the company borrow from insurers, whose capital "is unlimited."
2)CoreWeave is evaluating additional delayed-draw term loans
3)"If we stop building today, [we’d be] immensely cash-flow positive" - hmmm, not necessarily true
