@HormuzLetter

Iranian. The Middle East through the lens of oil, markets, and money. This is the only account.

Joined December 2025
BREAKING: Iran announces it struck 4 oil tankers simultaneously, which were conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf last night, with all 4 burning. Iran says 3 more vessels hit naval mines in the western part of the Strait of Hormuz the same night. It is the first strike of the entire war on ship-to-ship transfers, which are how cargoes are moved without transiting under Iran's terms.
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BREAKING: Trump declares the US is not negotiating with Iran and that something major will happen "soon." "Most people seem to think it's after the election," he added, indicating strikes before the midterms. It comes as Trump shifted toward favoring a preemptive strike in recent hours, and US military assets are being moved rapidly into place for an expected green light from Trump, per US officials. Iran's internal assessment is that large-scale bombing will begin in the next few days, before Tuesday's Israeli elections.
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BREAKING: US military assets are being moved rapidly into place in preparation for an expected green light from Trump to resume attacks on Iran, per a US official to Drop Site. "CENTCOM is putting all the pieces into place to renew major combat operations," the official said. CENTCOM chief Adm. Bradley Cooper is among the US officials pushing for renewing the bombing campaign, the official adds. Iran's internal intelligence assessment indicates a high likelihood that large-scale bombing begins before Tuesday's Israeli elections, a senior Iranian official tells Drop Site.
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BREAKING: US military aircraft are being evacuated from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, per initial reports. This is a major imminent strikes indicator.
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BREAKING: Iran has instructed all arms of its armed forces to treat political targets associated with the US and other participants in the war, along with their infrastructure, as legitimate targets in the next round of large-scale war with the US and Israel, which Tehran considers certain, per a senior Iranian security official to Fars. It comes as Trump has shifted toward favoring a preemptive strike on Iran in recent hours.
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BREAKING: The US military has quietly been evacuating US troops at bases across the Middle East in recent days, reducing the troop presence, with the State Department ordering further staff reductions at multiple diplomatic posts in the region, per two US officials to NBC. All US embassy staff has already been ordered to leave Saudi Arabia.
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BREAKING: Trump has now shifted toward favoring a preemptive military strike on Iran in recent hours following Netanyahu "pushing him," per Haaretz citing sources in the administration. The shift came after Trump's review of intelligence assessments presented by Hegseth after his meeting with Netanyahu this week. Israeli Air Force jets took off from multiple airbases in the past hour and all US embassy staff have been ordered to leave Saudi Arabia.
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BREAKING: Heavy fighter jet activity across Israel, with many Israeli Air Force jets taking off from Nevatim, Ovda, and Ramon Air Bases in the past 30 minutes, which are now over the West Bank, per initial reports.
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BREAKING: The US has struck an IRGC anti-ship cruise missile unit in Sirik, Hormozgan Province, following loud explosions in the city, per initial reports.
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BREAKING: US orders full evacuation of US embassy staff and their families in Saudi Arabia immediately, with families of embassy staff in the UAE, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain also ordered out, per a diplomatic source to AFP.
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BREAKING: US to order the immediate departure of some personnel and family members from US embassies across the Gulf due to a possible resumption of hostilities, per US officials to Reuters. The last time such move happened was on Feb 23 and Feb 27, shortly before the war started. Netanyahu said today that toppling the Iranian regime is now his directive to the IDF and Mossad.
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BREAKING: Iran announces it is preparing to unveil a new weapon called the "father of all bombs." "The United States has used the 'mother of all bombs' before. We are now preparing to unveil the 'father of all bombs,' which will be something new to the enemy," IRGC spokesman Mohebbi says. Trump's strike plans for Iran include the use of the MOAB, mother of all bombs, against nuclear sites including Pickaxe Mountain.
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BREAKING: Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir carried a final US ultimatum to Tehran during his visit yesterday, demanding Iran must concede its entire nuclear program or face large-scale attacks aimed primarily at the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, per Al-Akhbar citing leaks. Iran rejected it, telling the Pakistanis the US must accept Iran's seven conditions, and told Asim Munir to get back on his plane. Iran's SNSC chief Rezaei told Munir that no enriched nuclear material would ever leave Iran and that there would be no return to talks until the US meets all of Iran's conditions.
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BREAKING: Massive explosions and fire at the Iranian Aluminium Company, IRALCO, facility in Arak, west-central Iran. It is the largest aluminium producer in Iran. The governor claims "There was no explosion. Just smoke and steam, after a technical incident."
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BREAKING: Netanyahu says Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has now decided to lift the restriction on nuclear weapons and is trying to develop them again. He says based on this, he has now instructed the IDF, Mossad and security agencies to topple the Iranian regime. "Mojtaba Khamenei decided to follow in his father's footsteps. He has taken the safety off, and Iran is once again trying to develop its weapons of death," Netanyahu said minutes ago. "There is only one way to remove this threat once and for all, to topple the regime in Iran," he adds. "We are ready to strike you with full force," Defence Minister Katz says. Iranian lawmakers said on Sunday that Mojtaba Khamenei's position on nuclear weapons will differ from his late father's and that Iran must now acquire nuclear weapons.
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BREAKING: Israel was just about to launch a multi-day bombing campaign against Iran, targeting civilian infrastructure including electricity plants, nuclear facilities, oil infrastructure, and military targets, but Trump called Netanyahu at the last minute to cancel the operation, per the FT. The campaign was intended to start at the weekend of October 10 and significantly surpass the intensity of the joint US-Israel offensive begun in February. Israeli officials had presented an updated target bank drawn from new intelligence, including civilian infrastructure not struck earlier this year. Netanyahu wanted the strikes to rally his base before Israel's October 27 election. Trump blocked them to avoid an energy price surge that would hurt Republicans before November 3. Initial reports also suggest Israel may attack Iran in the coming days before the election without Trump's approval, with Netanyahu saying "We are prepared to take the initiative" and "The objectives I set do not depend on American approval, to the extent necessary, we will also act independently."
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BREAKING: Iraq will begin gradually closing all its border crossings with Iran in the coming days, starting today with al-Sheib, which is being completely shut indefinitely under orders from PM Ali al-Zaidi as a precaution due to fears of a US-Iran escalation, per an Iraqi official to Al Jazeera. Pakistan closed its Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan crossings with Iran and suspended commercial trade a week ago. Both of Iran's neighbours are now sealing their land borders.
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BREAKING: Elon Musk personally ordered to choke off Starshield, the military-grade Starlink relied on by Ukraine, a decision that sparked panic in Kyiv and confusion inside the Trump administration, per US officials to WSJ. Despite this, Musk went on and claimed "Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS." Ukraine says Starshield is still throttled as of today, to as low as 80 mph.
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BREAKING: The Qatari delegation has just left Tehran after only 30 minutes, shorter than planned, after no progress was made on US-Iran talks. Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir is now also leaving after Ghalibaf told him "we have nothing new to say."
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BREAKING: Trump administration blocks transfer of already-paid Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, with Hegseth refusing to approve handoffs from allies, per WaPo. It is the first pause of Patriot interceptor transfers since early July 2025. The US already withheld early warnings of Russian ballistic missile launches, throttled Starshield for Ukraine's military, and has now blocked Patriot transfers.
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