InfernoWatch

Hello followers, I hope you all are having an exceptionally spooky #Halloween. I am watching the potential for a minor #heatwave to impact #SoCal around the 10th of November. After that, a series of potent storms look to impact much of the state. More on that later. That’s all for now folks. I will make a forecast about the #heatwave on Wednesday (11/04). Other than that, have a great #Halloween.

#WINTER OUTLOOK 2026–2027 Followers - Finally, it is here. The Winter outlook. If you have followed me, you know I do not expect or predict the current #elnino will behave like the typical blue print for an #elnino will. Most of the weather daddy's on X and the weather dweebs compare this #elnino year to years like 1877, 1997, 1982, 1992, 2015, etc. Again, not one of years atmospheric setup, mirrors 2026. None of them, as far as I can see. Therefore, here we go with my thoughts. If you, and you know who you are, don't want to read it, cut and paste it into your AI program to get an and quick summary. Ok....Let's get into it. There has been plenty of discussion about the developing #ElNino, but I am not convinced California is going to see a traditional El Niño winter. In fact, I think several competing atmospheric and oceanic signals could significantly interfere with the typical El Niño storm track, particularly for Southern California. Here is what I am watching and where I think things could go this winter. THE BIG PLAYERS: PV, SSW & -PDO The Polar Vortex (PV), potential Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events, and a continuing negative PDO (-PDO) are all factors I believe could complicate the El Niño signal. Rather than a consistent parade of storms tracking directly into Southern California, I am watching for a pattern that favors more frequent storm delivery into Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. The PV and potential disruptions to the stratospheric circulation could influence the placement of the jet stream, blocking patterns, and where storms ultimately track. Meanwhile, the -PDO adds another variable to the Pacific background state. The result? I think we could see a winter with some significant precipitation disparities across California. NORCAL & THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST I am leaning toward Northern California and the Pacific Northwest receiving a more favorable share of the storm activity this winter. This doesn't mean Southern California gets shut out. I REPEAT, THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT #SOCAL WILL GET SHUT OUT. I absolutely expect some significant storms to make their way south. However, I think the storm track COULD favor NorCal and the #PNW more often than a textbook El Niño pattern would suggest. Something to watch. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: MY RAINFALL CALL For Downtown Los Angeles (#DTLA), I am currently looking at a seasonal rainfall range of: - 22–25 inches That would put us in a respectable rainfall season, but I don't expect continuous wet weather. I am looking for several significant storm systems, potentially producing some impressive rainfall totals, separated by periods of much quieter weather. I also expect periods of dry, warmer conditions and Santa Ana wind events. Don't be surprised if we go from watching major storm systems to dealing with offshore winds, sunshine, and elevated fire-weather concerns. That's Southern California weather. Feast and famine. THE SIERRA NEVADA: GOING OUT ON A LIMB Here is where I am taking a bigger gamble with my forecast. Above 8,000 feet: 500+ inches of seasonal snowfall. Below 8,000 feet: 350–400 inches of seasonal snowfall. I think the Sierra could have an impressive winter, particularly at higher elevations, even if the storm distribution isn't consistent throughout the season. There is plenty of room for some major individual storm cycles. But again, it is all about how much sustained cold air can come into play on the West Coast and into the Sierra. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS: BIG BEAR COULD GET A MUCH BETTER SECOND HALF OF WINTER I also want to talk about our local Southern California mountains, because I think the second half of winter could be particularly interesting. For Big Bear, Snow Summit, Bear Mountain, Snow Valley, and the surrounding San Bernardino Mountains, I am looking for a somewhat inconsistent start, with a much better opportunity for colder storm systems after the New Year. My expectation is that January, February, and potentially March will bring several colder storm cycles into Southern California. These won't necessarily be back-to-back storms. Instead, I am anticipating a pattern that alternates between warmer, drier periods and colder intrusions that bring opportunities for natural snowfall at the local resorts. When those colder systems line up with sufficient Pacific moisture, I think we could see some good snowfall opportunities for our local ski areas. I wouldn't write off Big Bear or the local ski season just because we have some warmer periods early in winter. I think the second half of the season could deliver some very nice snow opportunities. TEMPERATURES: DON'T EXPECT A CONSISTENTLY COLD WINTER One thing I want to emphasize is that precipitation and temperature forecasts are two different things. I am not necessarily expecting a consistently cold winter across the West. I anticipate periods of warmer-than-average temperatures, particularly between storm systems, with occasional colder intrusions when the jet stream shifts and allows colder air to move south. For Southern California, this could mean stretches of above-average temperatures, followed by significant cooling when storms move through. Add in Santa Ana wind events, and we could have quite a temperature roller coaster. THE NORTHEAST: WARMER PERIODS, BUT DON'T PUT AWAY THE SNOW SHOVELS! I also have an interesting outlook for the Northeast. I am leaning toward periods of above-average temperatures throughout the winter, potentially influenced by fluctuations in the Polar Vortex and the overall North American circulation. However, I am not writing off winter storms. In fact, I am watching for several opportunities for coastal Nor'easters to develop and track up the Eastern Seaboard, due to the southern jet stream connecting with the polar jet along the eastern seaborne. The right combination of blocking, cold-air availability, and coastal storm development could produce some significant snowfall events from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. I think the Northeast could experience a winter of contrasts: stretches of milder-than-average weather interrupted by a few legitimate winter storms that deliver some impressive snowfall. The timing and availability of cold air will be critical. A Nor'easter can be a major snow producer, but without sufficient cold air in place, precipitation can quickly change over to rain, particularly along the coast. MY OVERALL WINTER CALL - To Recap Here is where I stand heading into the 2026–2027 winter season: 🌧️ California: More favorable storm frequency in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. 🌧️ DTLA: 22–25 inches of seasonal rainfall. San Francisco - 32" - 35" San Diego - 13"-16" ❄️ Sierra Nevada above 8K: 500+ inches of snowfall. ❄️ Sierra Nevada below 8K: 350–400 inches of snowfall. 🏔️ Southern California Mountains: Warmer and drier stretches early, followed by several colder storm opportunities after New Year's for Big Bear and surrounding local resorts. 🌡️ Southern California Temperatures: Periods of above-average warmth interrupted by colder storm systems and Santa Ana wind events. ❄️ Northeast: Periods of above-average temperatures, interrupted by several potentially significant coastal Nor'easters and snowfall events. I am not buying into the idea that El Niño automatically translates into a blockbuster Southern California winter. The ocean may be signaling El Niño, but the atmosphere gets the final vote. The PV, potential SSW events, and -PDO are all variables I will be watching closely. If these competing signals influence the jet stream the way I suspect, we could end up with a very different winter than the traditional El Niño playbook suggests. As always, seasonal forecasts are a work in progress. I'll be watching the stratosphere, Pacific SSTs, ensemble trends, and the evolution of the jet stream as we move through November and December. One thing I will say: Don't confuse an El Niño winter with a guaranteed wet winter for Southern California. They are NOT the same thing. What's your take? Does the atmosphere cooperate with El Niño, or do the PV, SSW and -PDO throw a wrench into the equation? Lets see how it plays out #RealWXForecast #WinterOutlook #ElNino #PolarVortex #SSW #PDO #CaliforniaWeather #SoCalWeather #NorCal #PacificNorthwest #SierraNevada #BigBear #SnowSummit #BearMountain #SnowValley #Snowfall #NorEaster #NortheastWeather #WeatherForecast #AtmosphericScience #cawx #socal #larain #nywx #sandiego These are my preliminary seasonal numbers, and there is plenty of time for the atmospheric pattern to evolve. I will be watching the stratosphere, Pacific SSTs, ensemble trends, and the evolution of the jet stream closely. One thing is certain: I think we could be in for an interesting winter, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some impressive Sierra snowfall numbers. What's your take? Are we looking at a traditional El Niño winter, or will the PV, SSW and -PDO throw a wrench into the forecast? #Weather #WinterOutlook #ElNino #PolarVortex #SSW #PDO #CaliforniaWeather #SoCalWeather #NorCal #PacificNorthwest #SierraNevada #Snowfall #DTLA #AtmosphericScience #WeatherForecast #RealWXForecast

Hello followers, I hope you all had a very spooky #Halloween weekend. It is looking like a #heatwave is on the way for #SoCal with an added addition of #SantaAnaWinds. The heatwave that is anticipated to impact SoCal looks to begin tomorrow (11/06), and will continue till next Friday (11/13). Heat looks to be up there with widespread averages of 81ºF with areas getting up to 90ºF. As for the #SantaAnaWinds, they look to be starting early tomorrow morning at 3:00 AM. This event looks to be weak to moderate: 20-30 mph sustained winds with 40-45 mph gusts. Winds will gradually diminish Sunday (11/08). Regardless of recent rains, #firewx will be elevated. Current live fuel moisture (LFM) is between 65% and 80%. This––combined with the incoming Santa Ana winds––could lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. The NWS LOX office has noted that there is a 30% chance of "targeted Red Flag Warnings" from Friday (11/06) to Saturday (11/07). That is all for now folks. It is looking pretty mild until at least mid-month. But, here looks to be some potential for systems to start heading down into SoCal at the end of the month as #ElNino kicks into gear here in CA. For additional information, refer to the following forecast discussions from both the LOX and SDC NWS offices: NWS LOX: [forecast.weather.gov/product…] NWS San Diego: [forecast.weather.gov/product…] Over and out, InfernoWatch.

This record El Niño is forecast to peak at +4.1°C in December according to the new CanSIPS run, before fading to neutral or a relative La Niña by July. The tropical Atlantic looks much warmer than average heading into the next Atlantic hurricane season.

Hello followers, models are starting to come to 'somewhat' of an agreement. Are we getting any rain? Yes. We are going to recieve some measurable rainfall. But, it won't be nearly as much as what the hype is making it out to be. Average rainfall totals of 0.25" are expected across #SoCal from #Halloween to the 1st of November. Areas of locally higher rainfall totals (1"+) would be confined to the mountains of #SanBernardino, #Riverside, and #SanDiego. With the largest totals staying offshore. As for thunderstorms: activity looks to be confined to to the CA/NV/AZ state lines with CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values being no higher than 179 J/kg. That is all for now folks. After this system, there appears to be a quick warmup but then a system follows that. More on that later.

Hello followers, there has been quite the chatter about a potential #Halloween and early #November storm for #SoCal. Is it true? Are we going to actually get any rain? What is the timing? I answer all these questions at length below: Is it true that we're getting rain? Possibly. There is still plenty of discrepancies in the models about rain amounts and storm positioning. The ECMWF has the storm hitting SoCal while the GFS has the storm trekking south into #BajaCalifornia and the southernmost bits of #SanDiego. Some models (like the infamous GFS) has rain amounts in the 0.5"-1" range, while the ECMWF has ~2" totals. I will be doing an additional, follow-up forecast this Wednesday (10/28) to let models come to some agreement. I am however, monitoring the potential for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (#SSW) event. This could lead to impacts in #SoCal which vary from highly potent, early winter storms or very strong Santa Ana Winds. It depends on how and where everything positions. More on that later. That is all for now folks. As stated above, a forecast will be posted regarding the #Halloween storm for #SoCal on Wednesday (10/28).

WEATHER DISCUSSION: WEST COAST vs. NORTHEAST | HALLOWEEN STORM UPDATE 🎃🌧️ Good morning Followers! The forecast is evolving, and there's a pretty interesting setup developing across the West Coast heading into Halloween. Let's break it down. No hype, just the pattern and what I'm watching. PACIFIC NORTHWEST, #pnw Washington and Oregon remain the more active areas early this week. A cold front pushes through WA Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing additional lowland rain, mountain snow and cooler temperatures. Snow levels in the Cascades could fall to 2,500–3,500 feet, with accumulating snow possible at the passes. Oregon also has additional precipitation chances before the pattern trends drier later in the week. The bigger question is how the Pacific trough evolves and whether subsequent shortwaves dig far enough south to bring more substantial precipitation into California. NORCAL & THE SIERRA The rain signal has weakened across the Bay Area, particularly north of the Golden Gate. Rain chances remain in the forecast late Friday into the weekend, but confidence in meaningful totals is lower than it was a few days ago. The Central Coast has a somewhat better signal, although the focus of the moisture currently favors Southern California. For the Sierra, I'm watching the evolution of the trough, available cold air and snow levels. Don't assume a major snowstorm just because a model paints precipitation over the mountains. #SOCAL: HALLOWEEN WEEKEND IS THE MAIN EVENT 🎃 This is where the forecast is getting more interesting. The latest trends continues to show a very high probability of measurable rain across Southern California this weekend. Here's the timeline I'm watching: Friday, Oct. 30: Rain could begin moving into the region, depending on the system's track and arrival time. I am thinking more Saturday afternoon south of Pt. Conception currently. Saturday, Oct. 31 — HALLOWEEN: Rain could affect outdoor activities, including trick-or-treating. The exact onset and timing of the heaviest precipitation remain uncertain. I am thinking later in the afternoon, see the Euro AI Ens image below, when Rain is forecasted to come into #socal Sunday, Nov. 1, into Monday, Nov. 2: Additional rain remains possible as the system evolves and moves through the region. Rainfall estimates: My thinking is around 1 inch across much of the area south of Point Conception thru Monday, with higher totals possible in foothills and coastal mountain slopes. There's also a 20–30% chance that totals could be roughly double those amounts, per the model solutions Those are preliminary estimates, not a locked-in forecast. The models have been shifting back and forth, and ensemble rainfall projections have backed off somewhat. The track of the upper-level low will be critical in determining where the heaviest precipitation sets up. Again, think back to last week, with that system that effected #socal, as the upper level low turned into a cut off low, and spun around for a few days. That might happen again. IMO, this is a legitimate storm signal worth watching. But there's still a big difference between high confidence that it will rain and high confidence in exactly how much rain any particular location will receive. SANTA ANA WINDS & TEMPERATURES The immediate forecast favors relatively benign weather early in the week, followed by cooler conditions as the Pacific troughing pattern develops. The earlier offshore flow is weakening, and the next system's approach should bring a transition toward cooler, more unsettled conditions. It was 80+ degrees in Santa Monica this weekend, warm to hot days, offshore winds, and mild nights. Again, October has been a very hot month folks, no matter how shammed I got for predicting it was going to be hot, and windy. I'm not expecting the current Santa Ana setup to be the main story heading into Halloween. The bigger concern is the potential for rain and how the system's track evolves. ONE MORE THING: COASTAL FLOODING Southern California is also dealing with exceptionally high astronomical tides through Thursday. Minor coastal flooding is possible, particularly around vulnerable beaches, harbors, low-lying coastal roads and parking areas. Even without a major swell, these tides can cause problems in locations already affected by erosion. Keep that separate from the Halloween storm forecast. They're different hazards with different timing. THE NORTHEAST Meanwhile, the Northeast is looking at a much quieter pattern. High pressure and upper-level ridging should keep much of New York, New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic predominantly dry through the week. After a weak cold front, temperatures rebound, with highs potentially reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s later in the week, locally warmer in parts of New Jersey. Very different setup from the West Coast. 🧠 THE BIGGER PICTURE: #ELNINO & THE POLAR VORTEX I'm still watching how the Pacific jet evolves as we move deeper into fall. El Niño can influence tropical convection and generate large-scale atmospheric wave responses that affect the Pacific jet and downstream Rossby wave pattern. But the atmospheric response isn't automatic, and one storm doesn't confirm a seasonal pattern. I'm also monitoring the polar vortex and potential stratosphere-troposphere coupling later in the season. Changes in the vortex can sometimes influence the larger-scale circulation, but the resulting pattern—not the vortex alone—is what matters for California. My thoughts: The Pacific Northwest gets another shot at rain and mountain snow midweek. Northern California's rain signal has weakened. Southern California has a much stronger signal for a potentially wet Halloween weekend, while the Northeast remains predominantly dry. The next few days should help resolve the storm track and rainfall distribution. Currently, based on the Euro AI image below, I am thinking midday Saturday, south of Pt. Conception the #rain will start. The USC/Ohio State game will be wet, IMO. PSA - Thank you for the support regarding my thoughts and straight shooting without hype and sensationalist posts that X has become. Some people tho ruin it, by shaming me, and trolling me continually. Personally, I don't have the time nor the patience for this. You will get blocked. If you think my forecasts are trash, and I am a fraud, block me, or I will block you. Some guy, went nuts on me saying that October was was cool and wet month for #socal, and DTLA got 5" of rain already this month. For the record, here is the link for rain totals in DTLA, .59" for the whole month of October.....SMH - laalmanac.com/weather/we13a.… Folks, that is what I am dealing with on a daily basis, delusional people. I will continue to give you my thoughts and will not be influenced one way or another from the social media dweebs that are out there. You know who they are. Good news is, I am going to release my winter outlook on Halloween, so if you want to see it, follow me. More later..... #CAwx #PNWwx #SoCalWeather #NortheastWeather #ElNino #wxtwitter