Captain Condor 🦅 | Fund Manager | Market Mover | Memes + Math = Alpha
Joined March 2020
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Positive EV is calculated per the levels.
MG is not a standalone strategy it’s a MECHANIC to maintain linear growth.
This is the model for EV for all levels,
We can independent trade positive EV, but the performance would be pretty shit.
It’s better to use MG to pull 80-100% a year then scale out and use house $ to maintain positive EV.
All our level 4s rarely happen but yes they can be independently traded. Roc % sucks ass
Merry Christmas,
I wish nothing but success for all.
Anytime an iron condor breaches we track the levels over the last 3 years and we build our quantitative model around this.
This is the first time our series failed in over 3 years since CBOE released dailies in 2022, 1 series. you can’t backtest anything prior. So yes we are pioneers.
Black Scholes options pricing formula uses implied volatility not future. I suspect these conditions offered perfect opportunity for range breaches. I didn’t expect this to be any different than any other time we traded. We have rules and followed the books. We don’t normally close trades because all stats are realized at the close, Often have seen markets breach and close back inside. This is how our long model works (the one that predicts 1SD breaches) But they don’t work together to complement short IC.
The premise of our strategy is not about avoiding losses, it’s about generating positive expectancy.
Positive EV in this strategy is accepting that these events will happen because it’s a probability based system , but if you started with x$ and doubled or tripled the amount, you take off principle and scale the rest with house $.
In a nutshell, yes we are hurt but I don’t fucking give up. We will regroup and try again.
I’ve never been a fan of people posting “levels” and “information”
WITHOUT actionable trades or proof.
Put your money where your mouth is 😎
Giggity giggity GEX
Exciting,
Officially an investor in OutPost X Glamping Resort.
Over the past five years, visitation to America’s 433 national park sites has surged from a pandemic low of 237 million in 2020 to a record-breaking 331.9 million in 2024.
That’s a 40% increase in just four years and the highest number since record-keeping began in 1904.
2025 is on pace to push even higher.
One of the smartest perks of owning a glamping unit at resorts like Outpost X (or similar RV-classified projects):
These luxury tents/yurts/cabins are legally classified as RVs or park-model RVs.
That means:
✅ 100% Bonus Depreciation in Year 1 (Section 179 / Bonus Dep)
✅ 1:1 cost write-off – buy a $250k unit → deduct up to the full $250k in the first year (instead of depreciating over 27.5 or 39 years like traditional real estate)
It’s one of the last big accelerated-depreciation plays still available in hospitality real estate.
Talk to your CPA, but for high-income owners this can wipe out massive tax bills the same year you close.
If you want intros, comment below “OUTPOST”
ROTH had a fun day today .50 debit at the close yesterday targeting gap up, Exit at 1.50 Roth is cool, grows tax free but it’s also difficult to get funds in, have to do a mega backdoor conversion.
Long condor series is still active, our job is not to avoid losses, it’s to defend and maintain positive EV through basic mechanics.
Be a man double down
Looking forward to hosting our 3rd annual InsideOptions event in Thailand 2026 🇹🇭 during Songkran festival.
This is a 7 Day Itinerary that starts in Bangkok and Ends in Hua Hin.
5 star accommodations, open bars, and dinner.
Riverfront property with boat shuttle access to Icon Siam.
Enjoy,
I’ll be flying out to Thailand today til NOV 19th, lunch on me
uber.com/gifts/redeem?transa…
