Geopolitical Intelligence & Early Warnings • Regional Security & Global Terrorism •
Israel
Joined September 2019
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Another big election story in Israel: Hard right Minister Itamar Ben Gvir with only 6 seats according to exit polls. Very weak showing for him. He may never be a minister again, likely to be left out of future government dominated by the center-right.
My prediction based on exit polls and initial indications: Gadi Eisenkot will be Israel's next PM, possibly forming a minority government.
Confused about Israel's election results? I'm doing a Q&A session for the next 20 minutes or so. Ask anything!
Looks like my initial prediction was accurate: Netanyahu was not in good shape.
Soon comes my next prediction: Israel's next PM and government
Political analysts estimate: Eisenkot will receive the mandate to form Israel's next government, following setback by Netanyahu bloc.
This will be a challenge, as there's no clear majority for Eisenkot bloc.
Based on exit polls, Netanyahu has no chance to form a government.
Eisenkot Bloc: 52-53 seats
Netanyahu Bloc: Around 50 seats
Arab Parties: 17-18
*According to exit polls
❗️Israel elections: Netanyahu's Likud is the largest party at 24-25 seats, at the expense of his bloc.
Netanyahu coalition suffers major blow with only 50 seats or so according to exit polls.
Looks like Netanyahu bloc drops significantly from 64 seats. Question is whether opposition can form a government. Netanyahu very likely can't.
Israel election update:
-Extremely high turnout rate.
-Anti-Netanyahu bloc going very strong.
-Bibi camp gaining strength in recent hours.
-Pollsters hint at surprises.
Big drama tonight, exit polls in 40 minutes.
Election predictions
First, Netanyahu: 80% chance that Bibi loses the election. He lost votes after Oct 7, the only question is how many.
So who's Israel's next PM? 50-60% that it's Eisenkot. Bennett is also a possibility, but less likely.
Dramatic day in Israel coming up.
Israeli defense source: Growing likelihood that Iran will launch a preemptive attack on Israel (via @Doron_Kadosh )
Dramatic clash between PM Netanyahu and IDF Chief Zamir over Iran: Bibi apparently ordered some kind of military action, Zamir requested further discussion fearing military conflict vs Iran at this highly sensitive time (Israeli election is in 2 days)
via N12 News
2 days to the election: Israeli forces are on high alert on all fronts in case enemies try to disrupt the vote. IDF has eyes on Gaza & West Bank, Lebanon, Iran and Yemen.
IDF is launching massive military exercise in central and northern Israel Sunday; army will mobilize 4 divisions, Air Force will also take part; forces will test response to suprise attack on Israel.
Russia is evacuating nuclear scientists from Iran, according to Iranian reports, says @ElmasDean
Another indication that major fighting is expected to resume in the Middle East.
Israeli defense source: Under any attack scenario, US and Israel will strike in Iran together (Kan News)
US needs Israeli air power and execution ability for an effective attack.