Issh retweeted
One of my differentiated frameworks focuses on the non-linear relationship between catalysts and price. An asset can often endure multiple negative catalysts because bull psychology is resilient. Up to a point, price remains stubbornly strong, and sends the message that it wants to climb the wall of worry. Yet cracks form underneath the surface. And then one more catalyst stacked on top is the final straw, and the psychology breaks.
Unfortunately, the Binance hack could end up being this for crypto. The difficult broader environment was absorbed. The AI cryptography fears were absorbed. The AI hacking wave fears were absorbed. This catalyst makes those fears tangible - it brings them to life. If the largest crypto exchange can't keep coins safe, who can? Perhaps hardened natives still won't be bothered, but there are many casual owners for whom this will serve as a visceral demonstration of the risks of owning an asset where any theft is unreversible. Banks can be hacked, but outflows would get reversed, or bailed out by the government.
Great opportunities will eventually come around. Sometimes it's best to be patient and play defense.
Fuck me thats a banger
you're seeing a consistent pattern:
- Fortinet: people bought bc of AI cybersecurity 'emergency'. turns out 4q decelerating, management price sensitive. stock -25%
- ServiceNow: AI SAAS transformation requires forward deployed engineers, turns out 4q is decelerating - stock -25%
- Google: spent entire time on TPUs and AI, going FCF negative while its core business (ads) is - you guessed it, decelerating in 4Q. stock -13%
this was after youtube was supposed to be killing Netflix (stock -44% over past year)
- Robinhood: big agentic push, Monthly active users sequentially decelerating.
meanwhile the consumer sector (big ad buyer) is in beast mode. Cheesecake factory 15% comp, Chili's 10%. Norwegian cruise lifts full year guide - passengers up 22% year over year (983k vs 900k expected).
which begs the question: if you have RSI, and AI is the future why are you underperforming fried mac n cheese sales or cruise billings in the middle of a war. like what are you actually investing against
so company after company is going full tilt into AI, and not really getting a return - just as everyone is
1] locking in to multi year memory contracts (which is part of the price sensitivity fortinet noted)
2] going FCF negative
3] ready to absorb $2-4T of public equity issuance from the labs
meanwhile market rejoices when Oracle *cuts back* investment guidance in data centers.
Labs on fund raising roadshows are saying the new demand story is that software and hardware are insecure and need to be completely refactored for AI era. Which is just an expense, with no revenue acceleration - which brings to the macro question of 'is productivity going to accelerate'
right now sub 2.5% - needs to be above 4% sustainably for debt dynamics to work out. if everyone has to rewrite their software to address cyber threat environment, and banks get hacked constantly (which is apparently the bull case for labs?) - you enter unustainable fiscal situation and decelerating growth which was buttressed by AI infra investment which (per Oracle) is likely to decel
even at macro valuation level, China is far ahead of Europe in AI (non controversial). Hang Seng Tech index trades at 10.5x forward PE while French stock market (CAC Index) trades at 14x while Chinese 5 year yield is 1.3% and France is 4.3%
so there's a completely believable world in stocks where you get a lot more inference, and a lot more AI, and multiples decline or costs accelerate. which seems like Blasphemy in SF but if you just listen to public companies seems closer to a base case
Mega IPOs and massive capex between AI and supply chain reshoring all competing with bonds driving rates and inflation up and liquidity down?
Seems like a recipe people are starting to panic about
$URNM will be up ~150% from here around this time next year
☢️#SPUT: Sprott Physical #Uranium Trust
Third largest discount to NAV since inception in Jul '21; a metric that tends to coincide with lows in the sector...
The stocks are also historically undervalued relative to spot, presenting an asymmetric setup for contrarian speculators...
xitter.gq/uraniuminsider/status/…
It is absolutely criminal that this has such low OI and volume
Make trading vol great!
Would really like to see $BVIV on @HyperliquidX get more liquidity and volume.
Where the MM's at??
Issh retweeted
If you are mid to long term bullish, but derisking short term
You are expressing the opinion that you will beat the market twice in the short term
First time that you will derisk high enough and second time you will be able to buy back in low enough
That's two additional short term trades you need to nail on top of your long term view
Good riddance to the concept of the IoT
No more stupid internet connected smart devices spying constantly
There is about to be a massive booming market for "dumb" appliances
Also the TV's and shit spying needs to end as well, though that wasn't a back, just shady
Whenever you're trying to decide where to position, a helpful exercise is to chart the tickers against each other rather than vs USD/BTC
For example I'm quite bullish ENA and WLD and had to look at ENA/WLD as a pair to give a better sense of how to position and sizing etc
Would really like to see $BVIV on @HyperliquidX get more liquidity and volume.
Where the MM's at??
