Trader. Polyglot. Pragmatist. I write about predictions and current events. Insightful, engaging & witty long-forms on my Sub 👇
Joined January 2022
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At this point it's pretty obvious that this hike was never really a close call.
What's more, my read of Warsh was most likely off as well and there's less coordination between Fed and Treasury than I assumed.
80c to hike after CPI was probably one of the best bets of 2026.
Will Kevin Warsh announce a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting?
My analysis of a nailbiter interest rate call👇
👉 The objectives, constraints, and decision rules of Fed Chair Warsh
👉 The September FOMC voter math
👉 My thesis on the September decision
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
This is a cozy group I'm a part of for daily market following, news, headlines, macro, locker room talk 😁
Can really recommend, intimate and great value for money
We’re happy to announce that Hypernova is sponsoring our upcoming Winter Camp, kicking off with FOMC this week
Winter Camp members receive a complimentary $10,000 assessment account on Hypernova (worth $110), with additional prizes for the top trader
We’re also raffling off 3 Winter Camp places, to enter, follow @HypernovaX and repost this post
More details below
Taking the L like a man.
Core at .29% and services ex-housing high means it's clearly above my inval. Per my analysis makes the hike cheap and a hold expensive (reputational cost, 10Y pricing in hike and dropping).
Had more on Kalshi too. On to the next one
Will Kevin Warsh announce a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting?
My analysis of a nailbiter interest rate call👇
👉 The objectives, constraints, and decision rules of Fed Chair Warsh
👉 The September FOMC voter math
👉 My thesis on the September decision
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
Core PPI came ok, so Nowcast 0.2 Core CPI forecast should hit.
Market says it's not enough to hold, but probably bc of oil full-sending.
Doing something I haven't done before and betting against the market here. Still think they give this a pass until they're late. We'll see
Will Kevin Warsh announce a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting?
My analysis of a nailbiter interest rate call👇
👉 The objectives, constraints, and decision rules of Fed Chair Warsh
👉 The September FOMC voter math
👉 My thesis on the September decision
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
I return the favor to @bernardbulletin, who's one of the sharpest and best election traders I know🤝 (and much better than me fwiw)
We have many great and substantial discussions about markets, so I wholeheartedly recommend following him.
When I started trading prediction markets one of the first people I followed was @IvanCryptoSlav. And after a year, Ivan continues to be one of the only people worth paying any attention to. Here's him on the next Fed decision:
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
Will Kevin Warsh announce a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting?
My analysis of a nailbiter interest rate call👇
👉 The objectives, constraints, and decision rules of Fed Chair Warsh
👉 The September FOMC voter math
👉 My thesis on the September decision
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
Time to look at the tape!
A fresh trading recap with 3 takeaways from a brutally volatile Q2 and a review of how my 2026 predictions have been holding up in the first half of the year.
May-July was my biggest swing ever 😓👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
This Cryptoslav guy seems to know his stuff.
Predictions aging like fine wine
They call him the unbribeable ref 😉
My 2026 predictions just in time to cap off a fun 2025.
Venezuela, Ukraine, Fed Chair, World Cup winner, and a lot more in this one.
Here’s to a successful 2026 on @Polymarket and beyond.
Happy New Year everybody!
Link in the replies 👇
My last sports post for the next few years…the FIFA World Cup Final Preview ⚽
And a little preview of the ‘loser’s final’ 👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
And then there were only 4!
My FIFA World Cup semifinals preview ⚽️👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
FIFA World Cup quarterfinal previews are up just in time!
Good luck to everybody who’s following and involved👋
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
FIFA World Cup quarterfinal previews are up just in time!
Good luck to everybody who’s following and involved👋
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
The R32 was quite fun wasn't it?
Let's hope the R16 will be even better.
My FIFA World Cup R16 preview 👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
The R32 was quite fun wasn't it?
Let's hope the R16 will be even better.
My FIFA World Cup R16 preview 👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
This one is for the World Cup enjoyers among you: my preview of all R32 ties, with analysis and bets included.
No further explanation needed 👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
This one is for the World Cup enjoyers among you: my preview of all R32 ties, with analysis and bets included.
No further explanation needed 👇
ivancryptoslav.substack.com/…
April trading recap — One step forward, two steps back
The good:
> Pulled off what I thought were two good trades with the election in Hungary and the middle between US forces entering but not invading Iran. Some luck with the latter, no doubt, since I had some duration mismatch in my book. The overall trade was still sound imo. Hungary was a breeze, satisfied with that.
> Managed to come out unscathed - or even with a solid profit - from the ceasefire I did not expect to come in the manner it did. I wrote an extensive recap, so nothing to add here.
The bad:
> I gave back all the ceasefire profits and some betting on peace. Certain traders like to larp about Always Bet On Peace™ but it's way more complicated than that (and coincidentally many of these people do not forecast anything).
What went wrong?
According to my analysis, odds were value for a tentative slop deal. So on the first dip after Trump started pumping it on April 17, I started allocating. Unlike usually, I went in quite heavy, hoping to unload some on the way up during the second diplomatic meeting. The rest is history: meeting never happened, everybody who bought on that Friday bought the top, dip buyers got rekt.
I'd say it was a combination of bad luck, oversizing, and bad timing. I still think the analysis at that point in time was sound — they were evidently close to at least meeting. There was also a draft slop deal going around.
Now I'm positioned for peace again and already down a bunch. I don't have high hopes for it to be honest but we shall see.
Plans for May:
None, really. I must say I don't really enjoy either trading or following the news cycle at the moment. It's all very tiresome and I feel like there are more important things in life than worrying about cents on Polymarket or following every word of the orange retard. I probably won't be around much in the next weeks.
Good luck everyone✌️
March trading recap — Better is not good enough
The good:
> In profit for the month, somehow. Mostly really off the rebound in the first day of the war when I just took tactical scalps.
The bad:
> Two bad trades: an oil call that was a hedge for another bet, but that I wasn't able to unwind due to size and Scott Bessent in the books. And doubling down on a getting clicked on the China meeting delay. I managed to claw back a bit at the end, but Karoline Leavitt spilled the beans too early for a full rebound. Both cases of oversizing into tactical positions.
> Lot of sideways for pretty much the entire month. I still think my thesis on Iran is sound, but I'm starting to question whether I expressed it the right way. The next month will tell.
Plans for April:
Figure out how affected I'll be by the new @Polymarket fees. Pull off one excellent trade to build back confidence. Return profile into profit.
Back at desk and back at work tomorrow. Good luck everyone 👋
Sorry for yet another delay💩
> Was doing the voiceover then fatfingered something and deleted 2h of work
>But that didn't matter cause events overtook me again and I got kinda rekt, obsoleting part of it
Coming in the next few days as we wait for scenario 3 developments...🤦♂️
My longest, most thorough, most demanding deep dive yet.
Only the voiceover missing.
Dropping tomorrow. Just in time for crunch time.
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇵🇰Vance to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for Iran talks, sources say. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/04/21/iran-us…
