Private investor https://xitter.gq/t.co/nuAXuGDpX0
Oslo, Norge
Joined January 2025
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Guess the company!
· 12% avg. revenue growth since 2021
· EBITA margin expanded from -4.5% to 9.5% LTM
· Large and increasing share of afterservice revenues and solid incremental margins
· Capital light business; low capex and lease, neg. working capital, 34% LTM ROCE
· Just announced a NOK 2 per share extraordinary dividend. 2026 divi yield at 16%
· New policy: all excess cash to be returned to shareholders following years of being overcapitalized
· Even if only net cash above zero counts as excess, 50% of the current mcap should be returned through 2028. 75% if the company is at 2x NIBD/EBITDA (still below peers).
· 6.5-5x cash EBIT, 10-21% FCF yield. Multiples declining rapidly.
· Sector is consolidating rapidly. Seems like a natural acquisition target.
Jonas Fremming retweeted
I collected some thougts around the AI story. Timing is incredibly hard but the risk for a larger drawdown is increasing by the day
The wheels will really start to spin from now, due to supply
Pitch me ideas!
Full pdf:
drive.google.com/file/d/1fWS…
Frem Terminal is live!
Kan jo lure på moaten til Factset / Bloomberg er tallgrunnlag eller direktechats
A simple illustration, but the data centre part of the development portfolio could be worth 27 per ORRON share assuming a similar pricing as Magnora Data Centre.
PAS: Orrön develops renewable energy projects, data center (DC) projects (powered land) and energy hubs primarily in the UK and Germany. Development activities are currently funded by cash flow from Karskruv and an available EUR 50m debt facility but are intended to be self-funded in time. The portfolio includes 1.1 GW DC projects and 1.8 GW renewables projects at ready-to-permit in the UK, of which 2.1 GW in ongoing sales processes, and an additional pipeline of 9.1 GW DC/renewables across UK and Germany. Orrön is currently exploring options for the data center business including spinning it off like Manora Data Center, which could imply significant upside potential to our NAV/SOTP based on mark-to-market pricing (noting high uncertainty).
Magnora Data Center pricing could on my own estimates add many times the current market capitalization of ORRON... :) Decent R/R given 20-30% discount to NAV excluding any value on development and DC portfolio.
Goodtech ASA: Awarded NOK 240 million EPC contract with Blue Moon Metals for the Nussir copper project
Utbyttemaskinen Goodtech (21% yield i år...): finansavisen.no/industri/202…
Goodtech ASA: The Board resolves to distribute a supplemental dividend of NOK 2.00 per share
Interessant setup. LTM EV/EBIT på 6.5x på kraftig økende EBIT siste årene og 15-16% FCF yield.
Skal nå betale ut all excess cash (81m net cash per Q2 etter å ha bygget opp en del arbeidskapital). Bør bli gode normaliserte utbytter mtp. selskapet er svært kapitallett og for billig for å gjøre innvannende M&A - i tillegg skal det ikke betales skatt på noen år.
Sannsynligvis fortsatt litt å gå på inntjening (både margin og inntekter). Tror også Goodtech kan være en oppkjøpskandidat da det virker som det er liten konsolideringsbølge innenfor sektoren.
