“We can’t have a civilization without everyone pitching in.” RuPaul. @jsetka.bsky.social
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Joan Setka retweeted
If you cannot donate, please repost. It takes only a moment and maybe someone outside my usual circle will see this and decide to help my guys.
Wave Raid 🇺🇦 Day 29: €11,320 / €13,624
paypal.me/TriinuP
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Joan Setka retweeted
Major Update: Hegseth, Emil Michael, and Musk Helped Russia Cripple Ukraine and Destroyed Our Most Valuable U.S. and NATO Space Asset in the Process by Turning Our Most Expensive Defense Contract Into an Early-Warning Tripwire Endangering U.S. Troops and Allies Entering Iran Round 2 $SPCX $TSLA Trillions of Dollars Burned
Earlier this week, we proved how SpaceX throttled Ukraine's air defenses (-23% hits; 2,000 European-funded counter-Shahed drones grounded) while a SpaceX Starlink alert pinned U.S.-licensed, NATO-allied radar satellite ICEYE-X36 in orbit for 40 hours.
Today, we release the rest of the orbital and RF audit. What happened during and after those 40 hours is a five-alarm national security failure:
1. The Silent ASAT Kill Over Ukraine: You do not need a missile to destroy a multi-billion-dollar U.S. and NATO reconnaissance architecture. When SpaceX's Oct 15 conjunction alert suppressed X36's avoidance burn by 96.6%, Russian inspector satellite COSMOS 2612 locked at 640 meters for 40 hours (22-25 orbits). That close hold gave Russia a 616,000x (+57.9 dB) stronger signal to capture X36's radar waveform and pulse-timing parameters - burning the asset's operational anonymity in a single weekend.
2. Inverted Into a 66-Second Gulf Tripwire: Immediately after the 40-hour hold ended on Oct 18, COSMOS 2612 maneuvered into X36's exact orbital plane trailing 502 km (66 seconds) behind it. Armed with the close-range calibration, Russia's narrowband receiver can now cue X36's pulse timing from 502 km away and alert Iranian ground jammers and mobile launchers across 22 passes over the Strait of Hormuz and 26 passes over Prince Sultan Air Base. Sister radar satellite ICEYE-X37 is now bracketed by COSMOS 2611 and 2613.
3. Entering Iran Round 2 With Empty Magazines and No Guardrails: The U.S. is preparing for Round 2 against Iran with only 3.7 to 5.5 Patriot raids of usable depth left above the global reserve floor (after holding NATO PURL Patriots meant for Ukraine). Because Iranian strikes on Bahrain knocked out forward pier reloading, U.S. Navy destroyers must steam 14-18 days round-trip to Diego Garcia to reload VLS cells - leaving warships off-station 74%-86% of the cycle. Firing Joint Staff J-5 planner LTG Brett Sylvia 24 hours before the White House Iran strike briefing removed the statutory officer (10 U.S.C. 153) who enforces global reserve limits for Taiwan and NATO.
4. What This Means for Oil and Refined Products: Administration claims that Hormuz escorts have "stabilized" energy markets are a mirage. Because the U.S. Navy lacks the VLS depth to protect all shipping, coalition escorts prioritize crude tankers (13.5 mb/d) while refined-product flows through Hormuz have collapsed by 81.2% (-2.92 mb/d). Worse, pressuring Ukraine in Oslo to pause Russian refinery strikes and easing Russian sanctions backfired: it increased Moscow's fiscal room to fund its military while Russian satellites surge passes over U.S. Gulf bases (9.8/day) - and it did nothing to fix the global diesel/gasoil and clean-freight squeeze.
Full 3-Page Institutional Audit Brief:
* Page 1: Orbital RF Compromise and the 66-Second Gulf Tripwire (June Solo Evasion vs. Oct 15-18 40-Hour Pin and Oct 30-Nov 16 CENTCOM Pass Ledger)
* Page 2: Joint Munitions Depletion (57.7x-77.8x Daily Patriot Burn; 13.8-18.0+ Destroyer VLS Magazines Expended), the 14-18 Day Diego Garcia Reload Bottleneck, and the Statutory J-5 Purge
* Page 3: Where the Readiness Deficit Prices - The -81.2% Hormuz Refined-Product Collapse, Clean Tanker Freight (TC20/TD28 = 1.51x), Prompt Gasoil Backwardation, and Why Russian Sanctions Relief Backfired (Alpha Calibration Complete | OQD Gate Locked -> No Order Fired)
Economic Framework: Craig Pirrong, Ph.D. (@streetwiseprof) | Data & Forensics: RAB (@libertylynx)
Link to full brief in reply.
Joan Setka retweeted
Below, we proved SpaceX/Musk coordinated w/ Russia to block U.S./NATO satellite after crippling Ukraine's air defenses. At the time, we hadn't measured downstream fallout of 40-hour pin. We have now. W/in the hour, we're dropping complete orbital/RF audit. It's devastating.
FINAL: SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
New 5-page institutional brief & 60s 3D SGP4 orbital reconstruction with Craig Pirrong, Ph.D. @streetwiseprof | Data & Forensics: RAB @LibertyLynx
Pages 1-3 & 3D animation below; Pages 4-5 in Post 2; full 5-page PDF link in Post 3 🧵👇
As Craig Pirrong's counterfactual framework establishes: The Russian intercept is not the smoking gun. The failure to maneuver is.
1. The Sprinting Satellite Paradox & -96.64% Target Freeze (Page 1): Between Oct 13 and 24, 2026, Russian counterspace weapon COSMOS 2612 (68762) converted a 5-month, ~170 m/s co-planar trailing option into a 0.759 km sub-kilometer hold against U.S.-licensed radar satellite ICEYE-X36 (59103), which guides Ukraine's autonomous deep strikes on Russian oil refineries without SpaceX links, at the exact moment SpaceX throttled Ukrainian military Starshield terminals (-23.0% USF air-defense hits).
In June 2026 (with no Starlink alert), ICEYE-X36 defeated a Russian approach by dropping 0.500 km, generating 71.08 km/day secular drift (3.62 km/h in the sprint frame), exiting Russia's 3.0 km braking box in 49.7 to 60.78 minutes, blowing past Russia's 12 km or under onboard KTZ sensor in 3.31 hours, and causing a 103.7 to 118.5 km miss.
In October, as COSMOS 2612 fired a -2.2184 km (370.8x perched shock / 449.1x fit jump) burn to sprint 14.29x faster (400 km/day / 278 m/min), ICEYE-X36's evasion collapsed by 96.64% (to 16.8154 meters or less, P3 = 3.363%).
* Why? The Alert Itself Was the Weapon: SpaceX maintained a 0.401 km (0.711 km Oct 16) public GP collision alert via STARLINK-35856 (67013) despite holding internal v3/v4 forecasts 4.80x to 5.00x wider (1.925 to 2.003 km) and withholding autonomous Starlink clearance (M_Starlink = 0, W_X36 = 1, W_COSMOS = 0), legally freezing X36 under David Goldman's 2023 FCC Condition 16 (DA 23-797).
* Rational Russian exercise across a 363.7 km blind gap required ex-ante certainty of K = (E1, E2, E3). Across all 5 capability levers, SpaceX is the sole actor (N = 1): Posterior = 99.893% to 99.978% (Tier A floor; 1 in 3,748 to 17,841) and up to 99.999% (Tier B K-set).
2. Four-Way Tracker Blindness & What NRO/USSF Saw Live (Page 2):
* Public Catalogs (18th/19th SDS): Blind for 21.824 hours (363.7 km unobserved closure) on sprint (k6 to k7) and 19.385 hours on brake (k9 to k10, -382.71 km SGP4 delta).
* Russian Ground Radars (SKKP Krona/Okno): Bounded by Earth curvature at 541 km to a 22.8 degree (2,530 km) horizon cone, blind for 8 to 10 hours/day (80% to 94.5% of the orbit) with zero Americas/Pacific coverage.
* The Sole Unblinded Commercial Panopticon: Only SpaceX's Stargaze (31,000 star trackers, 40M+ daily tracks, 17M associated, 850 sightings/day, 7 to 15 min global custody / 99.73% 10-min hit rate) and sub-1-minute Space Safety portal (Appendix A & Section 4(b), with Chinese operators onboarded Oct 6 & 16) had real-time visibility across the blind gap, while NRO & USSF watch floors watched live on the classified High Accuracy Catalog (HAC / Space Fence / Vantor WorldView NEI), realizing 348 Starshield satellites in orbit (245 NRO spy satellites) sit on the same SpaceX bus.
3. Contracted Capacity Is Not Combat Availability & The 6-Way C2 Collapse (Page 3):
* Combat Output = Sensor Availability x Link Availability x Platform Availability x Permission Arriving Before Mission Window Closes (T_permission <= T_mission).
* The Two-Pronged Pincer: SpaceX weaponized FCC Condition 16 to freeze the Sensor Layer in orbit and a Commercial ToS ($500 liability cap) to blind the Transport Layer on the ground.
* 70-90 km/h Civilian Baseline vs. 4 Collapsed Alibis: Civilian Starlink in Ukraine was already capped at 70 to 90 km/h since Feb 2026 (S. Beskrestnov). The Oct 13-24 101 to 161 km/h gate hit DoD-contracted military Starshield links (-23.0% USF hits; Oct 19 Nova Vodolaha strike). Musk cycled through 4 contradicting alibis in 12 days (blaming DoD/POTUS Oct 14 -> ToS offensive loophole Oct 24 -> "sympathy for poor Russian conscripts" Oct 25 -> Russian ASAT/debris fear Oct 26), while resolving the exact same "weapon ToS" objection on U.S. LUCAS suicide drones in Iran via a 5x price hike ($5,000 to $25,000/mo)!
* COCO vs. GOGO ($8.8B+ Sign-Off Chain): Under Contractor-Owned, Contractor-Operated (COCO/OTA) deals signed off by Pete Hegseth, Stephen Feinberg, CTO Emil Michael, Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, Gen. Michael Guetlein, Col. Ryan Frazier, Clare Hopper & NRO's Dr. Chris Scolese, taxpayers fund the satellites while SpaceX's civilian NOC retains 100% of the physical thruster and velocity kill-switches.
(Continued in Post 2: Pages 4 & 5: Statutory Breach Matrix, CTO Emil Michael's $7M-$35M OGE Clock, the $19.5B SpaceX Bailout Loop, Iran Round Two Magazine Depletion & Subpoena Schedule. Full PDF link in Post 3 👇) $SPCX $TSLA
Joan Setka retweeted
Bearing Witness at Elmwood: ICE Agents Block Medical Aid After Tasing Man at Creek
Observers on the ground captured harrowing footage outside the Elmwood Correctional Facility, documenting an aggressive enforcement operation where Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents chased a man down to a creek, tased him, and subsequently blocked bystanders from rendering aid while he lay unconscious.
What the Video and Eyewitness Reports Show
The Chase and Tasing: Community monitors who were present to bear witness observed ICE agents pursuing a man leaving the facility, chasing him toward a nearby creek before deploying a taser against him.
Denied Medical Aid: In the video footage, community observers repeatedly demand medical attention for the man, noting that he is unresponsive and does not look medically well. When observers ask if they can check on him—noting that several people in the group are CPR-trained—agents push them back and dismiss their concerns, telling them to call EMS themselves rather than allowing immediate assistance.
#abolishice #iceoutofthebay #bayarea
Joan Setka retweeted
SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
The Math Proves the Reality that Musk doesn't want you to see.
On Oct 13-14, SpaceX restricted Starshield/Starlink during a 39-missile Russian attack, cutting Ukrainian drone intercepts by 23% and stranding U.S. personnel in Kyiv. Forty-eight hours later (Oct 15), SpaceX blocked U.S.-licensed NRO, Space Force, and NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 in orbit so Russia's COSMOS 2612 weapon could intercept it (99.89%-99.98% posterior)
Our Model Demonstrates that the Russian intercept of the US/NATO ICEYE X-36 satellite (contemporaneous with the throttling of Starlink) would not have been possible, and almost certainly not been attempted, without SpaceX resources. At a material opportunity cost, Russia sprinted its COSMOS satellite to intercept ICEYE X36. Based on a previous attempt in June during which X36 maneuvered to evade COSMOS, Russia knew that this would be successful only if X36 could not maneuver. On October 15, SpaceX fixed X36 in place by issuing a collision alert for a sub-kilometer approach with its Starlink 35856 when SpaceX's own data shows that the actual distance was 4.8-5.0x as great. SpaceX issued no warning to COSMOS despite the fact that its sprint was far more threatening than the stable X36 orbit. SpaceX did not maneuver its Starlink 35856 satellite to clear the supposed collision risk. How, absent coordination with SpaceX, could Russia have known that SpaceX would take actions that (a) misrepresented the danger posed by X36, and (b) resulted in the fixing of X36 thereby enabling COSMOS's successful intercept? Thus, SpaceX was directly involved in simultaneously compromising Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities. The conjunction of these two events makes innocent explanations untenable.
The Pentagon Capture & Iran Round Two Trap: Pentagon CTO Emil Michael who cashed out $7M–$35M from Musk’s inner-circle SpaceX vehicles (M8/Gigafund 0.1 and M6/Valor M33 II) and KQ Partners / xAI (selling xAIfor $5M–$25M three days before taking over CDAO/OSCand 21 days before SpaceX bought xAI, while keeping M8, M6, M9, M10 & Nomadic open) and Pete Hegseth purged rival Anthropic in two hours, surrendered combat command over US drones used to attack Iran to Starlink’s "Terms of Service," and on October 2 named Musk Co-Director of Project Meridian to design the Pentagon's "Future of Warfighting" just as America enters Iran Round Twowith depleted Patriot/THAAD magazines and Russia feeding U.S. warship/aircraft locations to Tehran.
SpaceX’s actions in Ukraine raise serious questions about its alignment with US security interests and its reliability as a cornerstone of US defense. These questions are particularly troubling given the effectively irreplaceable position SpaceX has been granted by the Hegseth/Emil Michael Pentagon.
$SPCX $TSLA
Our full quantitative analysis below w/ @streetwiseprof
Joan Setka retweeted
Well, when you throttle Ukraine's air-defense links, pin a U.S.-licensed radar satellite (ICEYE-X36) with a false collision alert so Russia's COSMOS 2612 can intercept it, and get the DIA to cite Russian propaganda site topwar.ru as your alibi, Moscow is going to give you a five-star review.
Next drop coming shortly: we follow the primary data from orbit to the ground, mapping how sanctioned Russian metals and LNG capital (Interros/Nornickel and Novatek) are intersecting 1789 Capital, Mongolia, Alaska, and the Pentagon's new $1Tn+ contracting engine. And we name the players...
Joan Setka retweeted
Pentagon watchdog trying to dump blame on USSF b/c they hold the contract. But it’s Musk who holds the kill switch as handed to him by Hegseth/ Emil. And all on same day Putin burns them by stating he works w/ Musk. Pentagon trying to cover for Hegseth/Emil. Total corruption.
Joan Setka retweeted
Why the Pentagon Is Lying About Firing Joint Staff War Planner LTG Brett Sylvia, and the 3-to-5 Raid Trap Facing U.S. Forces in Iran
Tonight Hegseth fired Joint Staff J-5 Director LTG Brett Sylvia. Officials first told The Atlantic he clashed with Policy Chief Elbridge Colby, then claimed he leaked on "the Iran War and Russia-Ukraine war" and asserted J-5 is "NOT a central planner for the Iran War."
Our new model with @streetwiseprof proves why that excuse is a lie:
1. The Statutory Lie: CENTCOM only runs the theater. Under 10 U.S.C. 153, the Joint Staff J-5 (with Colby) is the exact officer who certifies global missile reserves across Iran, Ukraine, and Taiwan.
2. Only 3 to 5 Patriot Raids Left: After burning $29B in munitions in Iran Round 1 (Patriots down ~66% to 759-827; true shadow price $326M-$650M/round), subtracting the 500-round Pacific/NATO reserve floor leaves ONLY 3 TO 5 JORDAN-SCALE RAIDS (3.70-5.45 packets) while Russia feeds U.S. warship/aircraft locations to Iran.
3. The Oil & SpaceX Trap: With Hormuz products down -81.19%, 81.25% of the IEA buffer spent (4.82 days of Round 2 cover left), Saudi East-West exposed ($125-$155/bbl Round 2 base; $160-$200+ double-choke), and SpaceX holding an N=1 combat kill switch (QRR = 0.00, already used in Iran on March 1 for a 5x drone price hike, which even @grok just admitted is "a demonstrated commercial hold-up during active operations"), firing the war planner does not erase the math. So go ahead and feed your ChatBot the data.
Joan Setka retweeted
Oh, we get specific.
Their names are extensively documented in publicly searchable databases, often with details of their age, family and fate.
Tens of thousands of names are engraved into stone at memorials. Those names are read out annually.
Victims of Soviet mass deportations are mostly women and children, including babies, pregnant women, and separated children.
In Estonia, the youngest victim was Anne Ojaäär, a 3 day old baby from Hiiumaa. The oldest victim was Maria Räägel, a 95 year old from Abja parish.
They were snatched from their own homes in the middle of the night, packed into cattle wagons, and dispersed across remote parts of Russia in labour camps where they faced hunger, cold, and brutality. Many died on the way or shortly after arrival. Some were even settled in nuclear testing fallout zones.
Soviet mass repression in the Baltics began in 1940, immediately after the Soviet Union invaded, first aimed at decapitating our states that are independent under international law and whose sovereignty and territorial integrity Russia had previously agreed to respect.
Notice that 1940 doesn’t appear on Soviet war memorials?
When this persecution began, the Soviets were still colluding with the Nazis to turn Europe into their spheres of influence, igniting the Second World War. They were still colluding in 1941 when they launched their first mass deportation in the Baltics to continue state decapitation.
The second wave, Operation Priboi, was much broader.
It was mostly targeted at rural communities, and ultimately aimed at breaking society and national identity, while providing more hard labour inside Russia.
Around a quarter of the population fell into the Soviet category of ‘undesirables’.
They targeted some of the same people that the Nazis had targeted in their own brutal occupation of the Baltics after the Nazis turned on their Soviet colluders. They even used some of the same wagons to load up their mutual enemies across Baltic societies.
However, the snatching was chaotic. Many families were taken randomly just to fill quotas when the listed family couldn’t be found. Some were taken for just having similar names to those listed. Some local collaborators just wanted to settle scores.
Deportations also continued regularly outside of these mass waves.
It’s estimated that about 200,000 were deported just from the occupied Baltic countries & a further 6 million forcibly transferred in total by the Soviet Union, mostly based on ethnicity.
Soviet persecution of entire nationalities were “monstrous acts” and “terrible felonies”.
That’s not a Baltic take, by the way. Those are quotes from Khrushchev in his 1956 secret speech and the Supreme Soviet in its 1989 declaration.
The Soviet Union officially acknowledged and condemned both its own collusion with the Nazis and its brutal targeting of entire nationalities, even while tankies today continue to defend the Nazi-Soviet Pact and its consequences.
The Soviets were regretful, not out of compassion though.
Some historians argue these crimes were a major political mistake. They deepened opposition to occupation. The topic was heavily censored but people never forgot.
That anger eventually spilled out into the open during the Singing Revolution in the Baltics, which culminated with the annulment of the Nazi-Soviet Pact. Tankies will never forgive the people of the Baltics for that.
It led to the restoration of our modern, independent, vibrant, fully restored states we live in here today where we can freely discuss history while continuing to build a better future for everyone, and also stand up for those in Ukraine still facing this kind of brutality.
It’s what Anne and Maria and so many others would have wanted.
That’s why we always get specific.
Joan Setka retweeted
🇺🇦 Open fundraisers that need support
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🛻 Truck @petrik_vn
🛻 Truck @Vladimir590482
🦅 Drones @Harry_Skif
🛹 Trailer @DrobotunVitalii
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Joan Setka retweeted
No one wants how it happened to come out, which tells you just how horrible this move was. Still, the absence of accountability means it can happen again.
🚨 Pentagon refuses to investigate Starlink disruptions in Ukraine. Senators demand answers about Musk's role
Nine US senators — four Republicans and five Democrats — called for an investigation into who was behind restrictions on Starlink and Starshield satellite communications, which Ukrainian officials say hampered efforts to intercept Russian drones.
However, the Pentagon's inspector general declined to launch an investigation and referred the senators to the US Air Force, according to the Associated Press.
The senators wanted to know whether US officials had authorized the restrictions, whether they knew about them in advance, and how the disruptions affected Ukraine's air defenses and warnings of incoming threats.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen said the Trump administration and SpaceX had provided conflicting explanations for the disruptions, making an independent investigation necessary.
Joan Setka retweeted
ICE has quietly wiped more than 20,000 detained immigrants from its online detainee locator, a new lawsuit says.
Officials have been told not to tell their families or lawyers where they are.
ALT Markwayne Mullin and ICE officers
Joan Setka retweeted
Patrick Stewart, 'Star Trek' Captain and 'X-Men' Superhero, Dies at 86 hollywoodreporter.com/movies…
Joan Setka retweeted
In lieu of flowers, memorial contributions may be made to:
Johns Hopkins Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center Fund
alzresearch.org/giving/
Alzheimer’s Foundation of America Caregiver Resources
alzfdn.org/donate/
Photo Credit: Tommy Garcia
Joan Setka retweeted
Vivek Ramaswamy, the son of immigrants, is now warning Americans about a city full of Americans whose families immigrated here. You cannot make this stuff up.
Joan Setka retweeted
Alabama voters! Tommy Tuberville is one of the DUMBEST people ever in politics. There is no way in hell that he should be governor. Black voters in Alabama should lead a Black tsunami to the polls for @DougJones!
Joan Setka retweeted
YIKES! It seems @Justinjpearson’s TN-9 opponent state senator @BrentTaylorTN has a history of sending unsolicited nude pics to people who are not his wife.
(No wonder Trump wants him in congress)
nashvillescene.com/news/pith…
Joan Setka retweeted
I have now been fundraising for 27 days and I would honestly love to finally finish this collection. Unfortunately €2,404 is still missing.
Wave Raid 🇺🇦 €11,220 / €13,624
paypal.me/TriinuP
revolut.me/triinuuqwd
Joan Setka retweeted
We have covered 82.4% of our goal! ❤️ I know that is a huge achievement but unfortunately the remaining equipment and repairs still need to be paid for.
Wave Raid 🇺🇦 €11,220 / €13,624
paypal.me/TriinuP
revolut.me/triinuuqwd
Joan Setka retweeted
In 2024 I pointed out that he still had of his old RT appearances on his ig, so he blocked me and quietly removed them.
Trust is earned through character and accountability. He shows none.
A subject-ignorant grifter and material plagiarist is being caught and is attacking @KyivIndependent for pointing out he stole from them. I really hope that those who keep inviting the grifter instead of proper journalists to their TV channels will take note.