Physics teacher, tech geek and jack of uncorrelated trades. Attitude is everything...find joy in the journey!
Joined February 2018
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Jack Crypswell retweeted
In times like this, if you're a long term investor, you don't want to be waffling about being in or out, you want to be stacking units systematically. Don't get confused by the traders, it's a separate game.
On unit accumulation, depending on how long you've been in the game, it's helpful to think in "relative units" of the investment you did best with. I'll use $ETH because the math is easy and relates well to younger networks.
ETH has ~120M units. Let's say I once held 10 ETH.
Now I'm looking to stack $SOL, but SOL has ~636M units, or ~5.3x the # of units. Therefore, to have an equivalent position size in network terms, I'd need 53 SOL. If I want to own double the network % of SOL, that I owned of ETH, I'd need 106 SOL.
Or, perhaps I'm considering $TIA, which has ~1.16B total supply, or ~9.7x the # of units of ETH. In that case, I'd need 97 units of TIA to have a network equivalent. If I want to place a bigger network bet on TIA, because the network value is lower than when I entered ETH, then 10x the % ownership would require me to accumulate 970 TIA. 100x the % ownership = 9,700 TIA. Going for significantly more ownership, at cheap prices, if you're right, can lead to asymmetric outcomes.
$ZEC is another good example of this, since its supply mirrors $BTC's. And so it's easy to think of your "dream # of BTC," and aim to accumulate that in ZEC, if you're so inclined.
Pick your networks of choice, and do the math. I have always found thinking in unit terms keeps me grounded, optimistic, and goal oriented in dreary times. I can then dream about future upside in the thick of the bull, but the important thing is to systematically stack the units with a high conviction methodology in the bear or early-bull pullbacks.
In terms of where we are now, which is probably why most of you are still reading :) BTC has been bleeding out the long-tail while remaining resilient, with many names 20-40%+ down from the highs while BTC is down just shy of 10%. You can either say BTC has already bled the risk appetite out of the market and so most of the work is done, or you can say BTC hasn't dropped much so it'll be really terrible if it goes cliff diving. I'm sympathetic to the former view.
I read this as an early-bull opportunity rather than a warning sign that this move was a "bull trap," and so I'm inclined to be a buyer. You have to respect the possibility of lower levels, and so tranche out any dry powder that remains with % cash used corresponding to % probability those levels are the local bottom - yes, you likely end up with some excess cash if not all levels are hit, but that's okay. And don't forget, there's already opportunity in front of you.
Jack Crypswell retweeted
You guys are all worried about the wrong thing.
Everyone is afraid of cryptography being broken when the real threat is that break being made public. Those are two very different threat scenarios, and the difference is clearly underappreciated on here. Governments have routinely kept world-breaking secrets for decades:
- US and Israeli intelligence share access to a technology that lets you pull all of the data from a cell phone merely by typing in its number. It's called Pegasus, and it is still in use today.
- The NSA discovered the cryptography we are talking about and used it for a decade before the public caught on independently.
- The NSA and MI5 learned in the '50s that you could decode pretty much any data from electronics just by listening to them. They launched a research program to exploit this vulnerability and to defend against it, but didn't make any of that research public for decades. For those decades, the world was an open window to them.
Per the above, a scenario where only US labs have this knowledge is not a huge threat. The real threat is the potential game-theory scenarios between US labs and Chinese labs. To think about that, I think these are the relevant considerations:
(1) Breaking crypto would break most of the global economy, which is the government's source of income, as well as government infrastructure. It would be incredibly detrimental to government.
(2) Because of 1, labs that are de facto government-controlled will strongly prefer not to release a way to break crypto without also releasing a way to fix it.
Add these up and the real threat is not the existence of the knowledge but the game-theoretic conditions under which it's optimal for one lab to release the break before the solution. This would not happen between two US labs, which are ultimately restrained by the USG. It might happen with a Chinese lab, however, if the Chinese feel such a break would weaken them far less than their adversary: kicking themselves in the gut while kicking their opponent in the teeth.
I'm frankly not knowledgeable enough to know who gets hurt worse in that scenario, but I think people aren't taking seriously the likelihood that governments will have a gentlemen's agreement not to break the world unless some greater conflict escalates and forces them into it. It's essentially the logic of nuclear weapons. This is not a threat for the next few months, but for the next few years.
Moreover, if one party would be hurt much worse by cryptography breaking, you can expect that party to throw massive resources behind the scenes at finding a solution as quickly as possible. So with every passing month, at least one party will be getting closer to a solution that lets it defang its opponent.
The real story here is the concentration of power within governments. AI labs have more and more negotiating power with the US government. If they hold all these secrets, and have the ability to produce more, you can expect that they would not release them, but instead start to exert more and more soft power within the US government. They will accrue enormous political power and conversely the US government will gain enormous power through them.
The next chapter has nothing to do with crypto. It will be an all-out assault on open-source AI because open source is the only source of this breakthrough that would threaten existing power structures. At the end of the day, the fact that cryptocurrency shares its primitives with most of the global economy makes it a much less significant part of a much bigger power struggle.
Jack Crypswell retweeted
We are now poised to:
Formalize all known Human Mathematics.
This is the modern equivalent of the Human Genome Project. or AlphaFold more recently, whereby all data of its kind is fully classified.
With sufficient funding and compute/tokens, a coordinated effort among academia, frontier labs, philanthropic organizations, and the federal government can formalize all Human Mathematics in the next year.
Jack Crypswell retweeted
I think this means a hacker can read what I'm typing through a wall. Hit enter after an entry that includes a special character and no space? Might be a password.
Might want to stop filling out passwords on your phone.
Jack Crypswell retweeted
The ChatGPT moment for robotics is going to arrive within the next 18 - 24 months.
We are going to need a lot more chips and a lot more commodities.
Jack Crypswell retweeted
If you’re a $BTC, $ETH, $MSTR, $BMNR, $ASST holder you should read this.
I won’t sugarcoat it.
It really sucks to be writing a message like this again, especially after doing the same last week and the week before.
Crypto has been getting hit hard.
Again.
Markets hit new highs.
Gold rips and round-trips billions in market cap in a single day.
Equities bounce.
And crypto keeps bleeding.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are down.
Altcoins are worse.
Treasury companies are hit even harder.
To be blunt, it’s emotionally exhausting.
And that’s exactly why investing in crypto is so difficult.
Not because the thesis is complicated, but because your biggest enemy isn’t the market.
It’s you.
And how you react under stress.
Let me share how I’m thinking about this, in case it helps.
I invest actively, and a large part of my portfolio is built around the same core idea:
monetary debasement, scarce assets, and digital money.
That’s why I’m long Bitcoin.
That’s why I’m long Bitmine.
That’s why I’m long MicroStrategy and Strive.
For me, these are all expressions of the same thesis.
Just with different risk and volatility profiles.
Right now, that thesis feels unrewarded.
Since the liquidation event in October, crypto has been in what feels like a slow, grinding free fall.
Good news barely moves price.
Any bad headline pushes us lower.
We’re now close to December lows and possibly testing November levels.
That’s frustrating.
But frustration alone is not a signal.
Here are a few things I keep reminding myself of.
First: survival comes before conviction.
Crypto is already a leveraged asset.
Treasury companies are leveraged on top of that.
If you add actual leverage on top, you’re playing a game where one bad move can permanently remove you from the table.
If you use leverage at all, it needs to be sized so conservatively that you could survive moves far worse than you expect.
Not what you think is likely.
What is possible.
Second: expand your time frame.
Crypto wealth has almost never been made by perfect timing.
It’s been made by being positioned when the move finally happens.
That means your goal is not to trade every swing.
Your goal is to still be here, with capital and sanity intact, when conditions flip.
For me, I’m not judging this thesis over weeks.
I’m judging it over 12 to 24 months.
Anything inside that window is noise unless fundamentals break.
Third: position sizing matters more than ideas.
Most crypto exposures are highly correlated.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, MSTR, BMNR, ASST, miners, treasuries, they move together when stress hits.
You need to think of them as one bet, not many.
I cap single positions around 10 percent.
Total crypto exposure for me is high, but intentional.
And even then, I resist the urge to aggressively average down every dip.
Why?
Because you don’t want to run out of emotional or financial ammo before the turn.
Fourth: diversify emotionally, not just intellectually.
One thing that has helped me a lot recently is having other parts of the portfolio working.
Gold.
Copper.
Selective equities.
Rare Earth plays
Other long-term ideas.
Not because I want to “escape” crypto, but because it gives me breathing room.
It gives me cash.
And it gives me perspective.
When one part of the portfolio is hurting, another part working can be the difference between panic and patience.
That mental space is underrated.
And patience is the real edge retail investors have.
If I could give only one piece of advice, it’s this:
do not make major sell decisions in the middle of a drawdown unless they were pre-planned.
Selling while stressed, distracted, or reacting to headlines is how people miss the best days.
And missing the best days is how long-term returns get destroyed.
None of this means crypto goes straight up tomorrow.
Volatility can absolutely continue.
But if your thesis is intact, price action is information, not instruction.
I know how this feels.
That’s why I’m writing this.
We’ll be hosting an X Spaces next week with a small group of active community members to talk through all of this in real time, share outlooks, and compare approaches.
Details coming soon.
Until then, take care of yourself, zoom out, and remember:
this game rewards the patient far more often than the clever.
Let’s win together.
ALT Total Crypto Market Cap
Jack Crypswell retweeted
I think the entities buying gold (sovereigns, particularly China) have a very long time horizon and it's the right move for a 5-15 year forward facing "end of the long term debt cycle" scenario.
Meanwhile it's really hard to convince sovereigns and fiduciary institutions to buy a nascent asset like BTC with 17 years of history (which is less than a retail home mortgage). Then think about their perspective on quantum uncertainty over the next 5-15 years.
IMO fixing BTC's quantum issue is the single most important thing for BTC development and it's urgent due to the current scale of buyers.
I think the excuse of "it's 20 years away" does not cut it. The investors looking to allocate think in exactly these time horizons. So time to get our ducks in a row.
Where the world is heading into, the world needs BTC for what it was designed for, Gold becomes the fallback that's in a state of readiness (for 6000 years) and they are buying.
But to the question at hand on the shorter term, I'm on the side of a large global macro bear market coming, so yeah, maybe we get a sharp pull back in Gold due to a flight to safety before the safehaven trade resumes. (See the last one: 2008-2012)
My hope is BTC's quantum issue resolves quickly to play a part in the macro geopolitics of our time. It was built for this.
Jack Crypswell retweeted
How about...screw it, good bill or no bill.
Banks demanding yet more government protection from competition is just too offensive.
Crypto industry has had to chew glass for a decade; can do it again.
Trump should tell *the banks* to get in line ffs.
🚨SCOOP: The White House is considering pulling its support for the crypto market structure bill entirely if @coinbase does not come back to the table with a yield agreement that satisfies the banks and gets everyone to a deal, a source close to the Trump administration tells me.
The White House is said to be furious with Coinbase’s “unilateral” action on Wednesday, which it apparently was not notified of in advance, calling it a “rug pull” against the White House and the rest of the industry. The White House does not believe that one company speaks for the entire industry, the source continued.
“This is President Trump’s bill at the end of the day, not Brian Armstrong’s,” the source said.
Jack Crypswell retweeted
@Mr_Derivatives I probably shouldn’t be saying this, because I’m a Fundstrat customer and their research isn’t public, but I feel the way this is being framed on X is unfair and misleading so I want to clear it up.
I’ve seen people point to screenshots and clips and say: “@fundstrat is contradicting itself. Tom Lee bullish, Sean Farrell bearish. Which is it?”
That’s not what’s happening.
First, Fundstrat is not a one-man shop, and it’s definitely not just Tom Lee talking to himself.
Different senior people have different mandates:
• Tom Lee: Head of Research, public macro voice, runs Granny Shots ETF, chairman of BitMine. Big-picture cycle and liquidity thinker.
• Sean Farrell: Head of Digital Asset Strategy. Owns the crypto model portfolio and actual positioning. Crypto-native, flow and risk focused.
• @MarkNewtonCMT : Veteran technical analyst. Structure, trend damage, DeMark, pattern repair. Zero narrative.
Where they all agree
This part is important.
All three see real headwinds in early 2026, not just for crypto but for markets broadly:
• Potential US government shutdown resurfacing in late January
• Legal uncertainty around Trump tariffs in early spring
• New Fed chair nomination and bond market stress
• Treasury volatility testing policy credibility
Consensus view: 1H 2026 is choppy and unstable.
Where the views diverge
And this is where X loses the plot.
Sean Farrell (crypto strategy)
Sean is responsible for protecting and reallocating the crypto basket. His base case assumes drawdown risk in 1H 2026, potentially BTC ~$60k–$65k, ETH ~$1.8k–$2k, SOL ~$50–$75.
His reasoning is very specific:
• Tax-loss dynamics
• Miner selling pressure post-halving
• Flow exhaustion
• ETF cost bases clustered around ~$72k
• On-chain average closer to ~$59k, a natural high-value zone
Because of that, he moved roughly 50% of the crypto portfolio to cash/stables. That’s risk management, not a long-term bearish call. His longer-term outlook into late 2026 and 2027 is still constructive.
Mark Newton (technical)
Mark’s view is structural. He thinks the October damage broke trend integrity.
His base case:
• Possible bounce into February
• Choppy, range-bound repair phase
• Late-year rally once structure heals
No narratives. Just charts.
Tom Lee (cycle and liquidity)
Tom is operating on a different layer entirely.
His core belief is that the traditional four-year crypto cycle is breaking. Liquidity, ETFs, corporate adoption, and sovereign dynamics matter more now.
He believes:
• BTC and ETH have likely already put in structural lows
• Volatility and drawdowns can still happen
• Crypto can still make new highs into early 2026 and beyond
This is why BitMine has been accelerating purchases rather than slowing them.
Is Fundstrat contradicting itself?
No.
This is what real research looks like:
• Different horizons
• Different mandates
• Same macro risks
• Different tools
• Different timing
Short-term defense and long-term bullishness can coexist.
Final thought
I’m still very much a fan of the research. The unfortunate reality of X is that people get reduced to TV soundbites and screenshots, while the actual work is far more nuanced and fundamental.
And on Tom specifically: yes, he’s structurally bullish. But he’s also been largely right. Since 2008, we haven’t had a true secular bear market. We’ve had violent corrections inside a broader liquidity-driven regime. Even most serious bears would agree with that framing.
Understanding who is speaking, for what purpose, and over what horizon matters.
Once you do that, the picture becomes much clearer.
Hope this clarifies a bit:) I myself hold a large @BitMNR position and I am not selling even if it drops 70% as I think risks of missing rally out are greater than trying to time the bottom!
Jack Crypswell retweeted
There’s so much pessimism and short-term thinking on cryptoassets these days that the R/R is tilting towards optimism and long-term, sized, high-conviction positions in distressed, public, cryptoassets.
That said, the time isn’t yet now, imo. I shared my view @ $109K that $BTC only starts to get interesting < $75K, and a revisit of the 200W SMA is always possible (~$56K currently, will trend higher), with all of those numbers still representing a mellow bear. Can we go lower? Sure. Pay your taxes and let’s see what 2026 brings.
Observing discourse & price-action around $MON, which is one of the highest quality teams to launch in the last few years (yes, I’m a venture investor in it), and sits at a tenth of the FDV of previous high-flyers in its category, while having superior tech & design choices across the board, shows how much repricing is happening. Starting low is a good thing, even if it goes to <= $0.01 next year I can see that washout being healthy. I’d happily accumulate. Every major cryptoasset has had washouts, that’s what creates opportunity and interest.
More broadly, the vicious repricing happening in crypto is cathartic. Everyone is taking their licks, and smart ones will learn and adapt. Most cryptoassets should go to zero — this is liquid venture, what did you expect?
But, there are going to be a handful that reprice far too low as the babies are thrown out with the bathwater, and having the conviction, at the right time, to be optimistic when the consensus is pessimistic will once again yield 10-100X’s.
Jack Crypswell retweeted
Everyone is wrong about Bitcoin, Quantum, AI, & Zcash.
BTC: it's not a fully-adopted sov, and it's also not just nasdaq beta
Quantum: not gonna be 5yrs, & not gonna be never
AI: not gonna be digital-god, not gonna be useless
ZEC: not gonna flip BTC, not gonna sit at $30 again
Jack Crypswell retweeted
closing section of buffett's final letter:
"One perhaps self-serving observation. I’m happy to say I feel better about the second half of my life than the first. My advice: Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes – learn at least a little from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them. You can start with Tom Murphy; he was the best.
Remember Alfred Nobel, later of Nobel Prize fame, who – reportedly – read his own obituary that was mistakenly printed when his brother died and a newspaper got mixed up. He was horrified at what he read and realized he should change his behavior.
Don’t count on a newsroom mix-up: Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it.
Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts of publicity or great power in government. When you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.
I write this as one who has been thoughtless countless times and made many mistakes but also became very lucky in learning from some wonderful friends how to behave better (still a long way from perfect, however). Keep in mind that the cleaning lady is as much a human being as the Chairman."
Jack Crypswell retweeted
🚨 IF YOU STILL DON’T UNDERSTAND HOW CATASTROPHIC YESTERDAY WAS 🚨
Let me spell it out:
While Bitcoin dropped 10% like a normal Tuesday correction…
THE ENTIRE ALTCOIN MARKET GOT SENT TO THE SHADOW REALM
Here’s what “blue chip” really means 👇
$ATOM: $4.00 → $0.001
99.97% ANNIHILATED
$SUI: $3.40 → $0.56
83.5% OBLITERATED
$APT: $5.00 → $0.75
85% VAPORIZED
$SEI: $0.28 → $0.07
75% DELETED
$LINK: $22 → $8
63.6% DESTROYED
$ADA: $0.80 → $0.30
62.5% MASSACRED
These aren’t shitcoins.
These are TOP 100 “INSTITUTIONAL GRADE” projects that VCs, YouTubers, and CT influencers told you were “safe.”
80% nuked in MINUTES.
Not hours. Not days. MINUTES.
Meanwhile:
Bitcoin: -10% (basically a coffee spill)
$19-20 BILLION in liquidations across the market.
But BTC just vibing like it’s a healthy dip-buying opportunity.
Let that sink in:
The “diversification” strategy?
WRECKED.
The “altcoin season” narrative?
EXPOSED.
The “blue chip portfolio” advice?
WORTHLESS.
Your hedge against Bitcoin dominance?
PROVED TO BE PURE COPIUM.
Here’s the truth bomb nobody wants to hear:
When the music stops, there’s only ONE chair in this game.
And it’s orange.
Every altcoin … no matter how “revolutionary” the tech, how “strong” the team, how “backed” by VCs .. is just leveraged beta on Bitcoin.
But with 80% downside risk in 180 seconds.
You thought you were “early” to the next Ethereum.
You were actually exit liquidity for insiders who dumped on you at Mach 5 speed while Bitcoin HOLDERS barely blinked.
The market just gave you the most expensive lesson in crypto history:
There’s Bitcoin.
And there’s everything else.
Yesterday proved which one survives when the house is on fire.
Choose accordingly.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Altcoins #Oct11Crash #BitcoinOnly