Another small correction: the mention of Figure 32 refers to the companion paper, "Circuit Tracing: Revealing Computational Graphs in Language Models".
Hey @nickcammarata, have you interpreted my 432-parameter model yet? Do you think you'll manage it by year end? That's 4 hours per parameter
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had
with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works
already-clean.goodfire.com/
I always appreciate Nick's boundless optimism when we hang out, but unfortunately this is giving the public an unrealistic picture of the state of the field. I want both of us to succeed beyond our wildest dreams, but I don't think either of us is likely to.
More on the <<0.01% claim: xitter.cf/JacobHHilton/status/21…
I fully expect Nick to come back with a cleaner circuit from a big model for two-digit addition, or some other task that a model with 100x fewer parameters can perform. But this would not be an encouraging trajectory for full understanding, since the model can do so much more.
Understanding 0.01% or even 0.0001% of a frontier model could still be incredibly useful! But this is a very different proposition from "solving alignment by understanding everything".
Some draw hope from image classifiers, where the trend looked better. But that was because larger models were trained on larger, more diverse datasets (e.g. ImageNet) that smaller models (MNIST). In language, the data is already rich, and larger models just draw more out of it.
There *is* some truth to the notion that features and circuits get crisper with scale, as shown for geographical space and historical time in this paper (Figure 2). But it's a gradual improvement as model size scales exponentially. arxiv.org/abs/2310.02207
It gets worse. The paper provides a measure of faithfulness, the graph completeness score. For graphs with 88 nodes, the typical score is around 50% (Figure 32). If this is the cleaner half of what's going on, what does the rest look like???
(Note: I had an LLM add text labels to the graph that are only visible by hovering in the original interface, to make everything viewable as a plain image. I didn't want to use the provided subgraph because it was was produced using an ad-hoc manual process.)
When we open up the detailed graph, we see this doozy with 88 nodes and 2,099 edges. What is going on??? Do I now understand how this model performs 36+59???
The caption describes this as a "simplified attribution graph" and provides a helpful link to a "detailed graph". Let's see what happens when we open that up.
In that paper, there's a beautiful picture of how the model (Claude 3.5 Haiku) performs 36+59. It's super cool that we can get any insight into this! But unfortunately, there's some fine print.
Nick's work suggests that many neurons in larger language models have a coherent dominant function. It does not quantify how complete these descriptions are. Neurons probably have a vast number of secondary functions, as Neel's post explains. xitter.cf/NeelNanda5/status/2110…
This is interesting work, but I don't think it's a significant update to the big picture of interpretability.
I'm on board with the broad idea of doing exploratory interpretability with neurons, e.g. neuron-based attribution graphs, for pragmatic problems like why did a model do a sketchy thing? I think this work provides some reasonable evidence, in addition to good earlier work from
Transluce, that this might actually work for practical purposes, and has some advantages over the standard alternatives like SAEs/transcoders. I do not agree with some people's grander inferences like that this is substantial progress towards ambitious reverse engineering, solving interpretability etc.
I expect that a neuron-based attribution graph will still have significant error and be missing a lot just like transcoders, once you prune them down to the most important components, even if they solve error terms. Which is fine for pragmatic purposes, and may suffice for getting the gist of what's going on, but I remain pessimistic about really fully understanding things and being confident there's nothing we're missing. I do think that using neurons is just vastly easier to, for example, do on a frontier model, which is great. I'm also excited to see more innovation in using agents to interpret neurons. I feel like this is an area the field has somewhat neglected, and where there's probably a very high ceiling on how far things can go. The SwiGLU double negative thing is also a useful point.
I still think superposition is real and this work doesn’t really affect my cruxes. Most importantly, it seems highly likely to be true that the model can represent more concepts in the residual stream than it has dimensions, ie representational superposition, which I think the authors agree with me on. For neuron/computational superposition, it seems to me like language models have far more facts and memorized things in them than they have neurons. And that superposition is an efficient way to pack in more facts than you have neurons by representing them as linear combinations of neurons, especially for arbitrary unstructured values. Facts/memorized content is largely an unstructured database of key-value pairs IMO and I don’t see how this is compatible with a monosemantic view of neurons. I expect that weak neuron activations contain lots of semantic superposition-y info, which, if ablated, would meaningfully damage network performance. As I understand the work, it does not properly address what's going on with weak neuron activations in LLMs (I am skeptical of how much vision results will transfer, eg I expect small image models memorise far less). This picture is compatible with the highest activations of a neuron being mono semantic (though IMO the post defines monosemantic too loosely, I think I’d call a fair few of those polysemantic). It’s also plausible that the most important concepts are likely to correspond to a neuron (or a handful), which would be great, and may suffice for practical purposes!
Similarly, my impression is that SAEs generally don't find things that are a
single neuron, or even very sparse in the neuron basis, and are often a better basis for certain tasks than the neuron basis, though the evidence base is kinda weak here since we largely focus on residual stream or layer output SAEs, I’d love to see work on this in Goodfire’s forthcoming paper! I also think residual stream SAEs are extremely useful, as they give a good bottleneck of the model’s information at this token and layer, and I don’t see a good way to replicate them in the neuron framework.
And kudos to Nick for updating a bunch of his historical vision work! Revisiting old results with modern tools and more rigour seems great.
For a full understanding, we need to go beyond neurons, and explain how they connect together to form circuits. How is this going? If we are aiming for a full understanding, things are not looking good!
Even if we had good descriptions of every single neuron in a model, this would not bode well. The number of neurons in models is growing exponentially, but the number of parameters follows a faster exponential. So the ratio is falling exponentially.







