deputy editor @InsideElections / formerly @NBCNews, @cnn, @cornellsun / say hello: [email protected]
Washington, DC
Joined April 2009
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Wyoming Republican House nominee Chuck Gray just loaned his campaign $376,000.
Comes days after @InsideElections moved WY-AL from Solid Republican to Likely Republican and Gray called us a "so-called rating outfit" and "fake news."
We moved this race to Likely Republican from Solid more than a month ago >>>
#OKGov: Oklahoma Values is up on TV with this spot hitting D candidate Cyndi Munson (name is misspelled "Muson" at 0:14) --
The “social experiment” stuff is bs—it’s actually just called lying.
But the number of media outlets, pundits, and campaigns that cited Wedgewood should heed this advice. When a pollster has no track record, an AI site, and no names attached to it, it just might not be kosher.
People *really* have to start thinking for more than five seconds before they boost every single "poll" they see come across the timeline.
If something seems off, something is probably off.
xitter.cf/JacobRubashkin/status/…
In the past week we've seen CLF/No Going Back triage four of the races where Republicans had the biggest spending disparity in September and early October: NY-03, TX-28, CA-13, and now FL-25.
TRIAGE NEWS: @CLFSuperPAC is axing its reservation to oust Dem Rep Jared MOSKOWITZ
CLF will save $6M in #FL25 (Trump+9). GOP nominee is Scott Singer
ALSO No Going Back PAC is triaging in #NC11 (Trump+10), suggesting they think Jamie Ager (D) will win
More in @PunchbowlNews PM
Jacob Rubashkin retweeted
I received the poll testing the ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her daughter a "liar." Comes from the polling firm Dynata. Before showing the ad, the poll asks whether it's true Acton was sexually abused and lived in a tent as a child. Then the ad plays twice.
Blackburn’s super PAC has been taking a sledgehammer to Hartley, the independent, recently. He’s pulling from her share, and 44% is uncomfortably close to the ~40% a good Democratic candidate could get in a good year.
Spry Strategies | 10/10-10/16 LV
Tennessee Governor 2026
🟥Marsha Blackburn 44%
🟦Jerri Green 32%
⬜️David Hatley 12%
⬜️Lauren Pinkston 1%
Link to poll: fiftyplusone.news/polls/gove…
Professional news!
SO excited to announce that I will be manning @cspan’s first-ever election night big board, the DEMOCRACY DASHBOARD, next month along with the great Jon McArdle.
E-Day lineup is stacked too, with @kirk_bado, @ercovey, @JessicaTaylor, @abbyyturner_ and more>>
WYOMING AT-LARGE | WY Action, the super PAC funded by GOP nominee Chuck Gray's father, is airing this attack ad against Democratic nominee Lisa Kinney, hitting her on rural healthcare and tying her to DSA >>>
🚨 RATING CHANGE: #WYAL moves from Solid R to Likely R.
Yes, Wyoming. An unpopular president and divisive GOP nominee Chuck Gray have put the most Republican state in the country on the edge of the House map.
What did you think “this cycle is 2006” meant? Vibes? Papers? Essays?
Republican Chuck Gray in #WYAL (Trump+46 in 2024) is out with what appears to be his first general election ad.
"Families here are getting squeezed groceries, gas, power bills. Chuck is focused on affordability. ... Chuck's only priority will be the people of Wyoming."
1 Scaramucci = 2.75 Zacharias
A senior White House official tells @pdoocy Katie ZACHARIA is “transitioning out” of the press secretary position.
Jacob Rubashkin retweeted
"It's not a dummymander!" - @ercovey
"Republicans would be doing worse had they not changed the maps" - @JacobRubashkin
Erin and Jacob did battle with the conventional wisdom as we toured the 2026 battleground House districts.
Elon is also so insanely rich it’s hard to comprehend. There’s no Democratic Elon because there’s no other Elon.
Like, Larry Page is the second-richest man on Earth — $257 billion — and I am closer to him than he is to Elon.
Gotten a few questions in the last 24 hours about why there is no Democratic Elon Musk this cycle.
A few thoughts:
1. They're very well could be! So much of Democratic giving now happens through dark-money vehicles that don't disclose their donors. It is possible that there is a Democratic billionaire donating $300 million this cycle, but it is not public.
2. The closest Democrat, publicly, is George Soros. The Soros family runs two super PACs, and they are still sitting on $174 million in cash on hand. I bet some Democrats would love for that to be to use in the final weeks.
3. It's true that most of the ultra-big donors these days are Republicans. Musk, as the world's richest person, is obviously in a league of his own.
By my count 36 non-incumbent Democrats so far raised over $1 million in Q3 so far compared to 4 nonincumbent Republicans (not including self funders).
Just $800,000 over three months for a senator who has quickly found himself in a fight for his political life
NEW FEC F3
MARSHALL, ROGER W (REP-Inc) #KSSEN
RCPT $800,618
EXPN $5,266,608
COH $922,088
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/for…
Club for Growth’s super PAC is up to nearly $400,000 in spending in TX-32, a redrawn seat that was Trump +18 in 2024.
Real time independent expenditure reporting for #TX32
See the list:
capitolhillaccess.com/tr/tr_…
Real time independent expenditure reporting for #TX32
See the full list:
capitolhillaccess.com/tr/tr_…
New SENATE ratings changes from @InsideElections:
🟣TEXAS: Tilt GOP ➡️Toss-up
🔴KANSAS: Likely GOP ➡️ Tilt GOP
🔴SOUTH CAROLINA: Likely GOP➡️Lean GOP
🔵NEW HAMPSHIRE: Toss-up ➡️ Tilt Democratic
🔴FLORIDA: Solid GOP ➡️Likely GOP
Smart move for AOC - gets the electability creds of campaigning for an ostensible frontliner in a swing state but in reality this race has been fully cooked for Sykes for months.
Jacob Rubashkin retweeted
Live from the beautiful campus of the University of Kansas, it’s the midterms! @JacobRubashkin and I will be at the Dole Institute later today to discuss the races to watch and What’s the Matter with Kansas. Tune in!
