Chief Economist at the Resolution Foundation. Previous lives at the Bank of England and in the civil service. Focussed on all things economic-policy related.

London, England
Joined October 2018
🚨 New on our substack: crowd-pleasing cost of living measures risk being self-defeating Ruth Curtice & @JamesSmithRF outline the potential pitfalls of blanket cost of living support at a time of high borrowing costs and pacey price rises 👇️ buff.ly/yAb71H9
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🚨Book launch - Money: The Inside Story🚨 In their new book, Bank of England economists Rupal Patel and Jack Leslie pull back the curtain on how money is supposed to work, what happens when it doesn’t, and where it might be going next. Join us to discuss next week➡️ buff.ly/4AHXEJU
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JamesSmithRF retweeted
New Q1 2026 UK trade data out this morning - and the Trump tariff hit on UK exports to the US is now unmissable. Feeding into the longer-term picture of weak goods trade, offset with stronger services trade.
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Creating the Fair Work Agency is a welcome milestone; but other enforcement challenges remain. There will be no change to the scale of financial penalties, which are currently too low to be an effective deterrent. In fact, almost half of minimum wage cases are self-corrected so incur no penalty.
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Unanimous in the face of uncertainty. Yesterday's Bank of England decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% was the first unanimous vote by the 9-strong Monetary Policy Committee in over 4 years.
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JamesSmithRF retweeted
Well worth reading from @hale_shale @resfoundation
🚨 Out now - the Resolution Foundation response to the Chancellor’s 2026 Mais Lecture. @hale_shale argues that the priorities set out by Rachel Reeves yesterday form a credible framework for supporting stronger growth, but important gaps remain. Read it here: buff.ly/1SkyA5G
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Mike Brewer is now addressing the conference about the key findings of our analysis 🧵
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Ruth Curtice addresses the Unsung Britain conference. "Britain's poorest families are poorer today than they were 20 years ago". Watch along here 👉 buff.ly/TbXMmu8
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🚨 Major NEW research published today 🚨 Our book Unsung Britain reveals that squeezed families now face waiting more than a lifetime for the doubling of living standards we used to enjoy every 40 years. Full findings here 👉 buff.ly/7WcqrbQ
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An 11 percentage point swing from owning with a mortgage to renting privately over the three decades since 1995 means that 8.6 million people in lower-income families live in homes rented from a private landlord. These people spend on average 43 per cent of their total household budget on rent. Read Unsung Britain now ⤵️ buff.ly/7WcqrbQ
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Unsung Britain is working harder, for limited rewards. The 20-64-year-old employment rate for people in lower-income families rose by 11 percentage points over the last 30 years... ..but earnings growth has petered out since 2005.
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JamesSmithRF retweeted
Both tomorrow's conference and the book we are publishing will be GREAT. Do sign up and check it out. Top work from the @resfoundation team 👏👏👏.
🚨 We're publishing a book tomorrow! Unsung Britain combines analysis & policy with in-depth conversations to understand the needs of lower income families – and we're hosting a major conference. With keynotes from Andy Burnham @AndyBurnhamGM & Ken Murphy ➡️ buff.ly/2tG8LsY
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The Royal Economic Society is deeply concerned by reports that an academic economist has been publicly harassed at a London university because they are Israeli. Read our full statement here: bit.ly/4oAEUaf
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Kindle has chosen Sick of It to be part of their 99p deal for October! Given the first book I published back in 2010 was about £80 this is a much better deal. And cheaper than a whippy.
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Good take on the UK GDP data... 👇
.@ONS monthly GDP out this morning for July shows output flat on the month, in line with market expectations. This is stodgy start to Q3 after decent performance in the first half of the year and will not be what the government was hoping for. Short thread to follow...
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Long-term wealth can tell us something about resilience, but it doesn’t capture families’ day-to-day realities. What matters when shocks hit is whether households can draw on liquid savings, borrow affordably, and avoid falling behind on bills...
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Replying to @JamesSmithRF
Excellent thread James and @LalithaTry. V much agree, IMHO very hard to see more than one rate cut this year.
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A great paper (working with @BenBaumberg2 ) and a great panel too - do sign up for next Thursday.
How can employers go further to recruit and retain disabled workers? Join us next week to hear from our expert panel Charlie Mayfield, Beth Kume-Holland, Rachel Suff Louise Murphy and Ruth Curtice on how Government and employers can make improvements. Sign-up➡️ buff.ly/1MIErm8
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Yesterday, @LalithaTry and I today published new research on the cost of essentials in Britain. We dig into the rising weight of essentials in family budgets, what that means for life on low incomes, and what the Government should do about it. 🧵
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