One time Royal Navy Officer and former IISS Defence Analyst now works in defence. Loves family, food and politics in that order. All tweets my own views etc...
Joined July 2010
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Jason Alderwick retweeted
天呐，海底光缆统治世界的时代要结束了，又要见证历史了🤯。。
马斯克首次公布 Starlink V4 的极端参数：性能直接跳涨一百倍，光速天然快了一点四倍且不用绕大陆架，上千万条激光链路正在把地球通信主干搬上深空。
绝大多数人至今依然以为，星链只是给偏远山区、游艇和飞机提供网络补丁的边缘工具。
直到马斯克刚刚在最新的投资人会议上摊开底牌，很多人才第一次看懂 SpaceX 真正的阳谋：把构筑人类现代文明的海底光缆网络，从大洋深处连根拔起，彻底搬到太空。
这里藏着一个极度反直觉的物理常识：
光在太空真空中的传播速度，比在玻璃光纤里整整快了 40%。
更致命的是几何路径的差异。海底光缆必须顺着大陆架和海沟蜿蜒曲折地绕远路，而太空中的卫星激光链路，两点之间永远是沿着大圆航线在真空中直线对穿。这意味着在跨洋超长距离通信上，太空激光的延迟天然比地面光缆更低。
而阻碍这件事过去的唯一瓶颈，是带宽密度。
马斯克这次直接给出了技术迭代的量化终局：
从 V2 到即将落地的 V4 卫星，单星吞吐能力将直接迎来 100 倍的暴力跃升。
在更长期的宏大蓝图里，超过 10 万颗卫星组成的轨道阵列，每颗都将配备大约 100 个传输速率超 10 Tbps 的光学激光器，在地球外围织成一张百 Exabit 级别的无缝高速网状路由。
这已经不是在做卫星宽带了，这是在用火箭把全球互联网的核心骨干网整个重写一遍。
海底光缆容易被地质地震震断、被船锚挂伤，更深陷地缘博弈的物理封锁；而悬在头顶的真空激光网络，既没有折射损耗，也没有无法逾越的地理边界。
人类用了上百年时间，把铜线和光纤一根根沉入海底来连接彼此；而未来的文明动脉，注定要在没有阻力的星空里以光速奔流。
马斯克刚刚把全球半导体制造行业最后一点虚伪的遮羞布撕碎了，
老马透露今年全世界除了他以外生产的所有 AI 芯片加起来大概只有二十吉瓦，而他正在秘密推进的超级芯片工厂 TeraFab，终极目标是把年产量直接干到整整一太瓦，也就是明年全球总产量的三十倍。
当大多数科技巨头还在为了抢台积电几万片先进封装配额打破头的时候，
马斯克对 TeraFab 这个名字给出的三重拆解，已经把工业狂人的冷血算盘展现得淋漓尽致，它既谐音代表让人毛骨悚然的恐怖，
也代表扎根于这颗星球的土地，但底层最纯粹的本质就是物理学上的太瓦，一个大到超出人类现行半导体常识的超级怪兽。
按照目前的全球供应链节奏，明年全世界哪怕把吃奶的力气用上，全部 AI 芯片的总功耗产能预计也就只能爬坡到三十五到四十五吉瓦，
在传统半导体代工厂眼里这已经算得上是跨越式的军备竞赛，但放在马斯克以太瓦为单位丈量的物理世界里，整个人类现存的芯片制造体系加在一起，弱小得就像是手工作坊在小打小闹。
这其实彻底挑明了软硬件协同演进的一条绝情铁律，任何把通用人工智能挂在嘴边、却把晶圆制造和先进产能全部寄托给外部代工的软件公司，
本质上都是把自家大厦建在了极其脆弱的流沙上，只要产能杠杆的阀门依然被传统供应链卡在几十吉瓦的窄门里，大模型参数狂飙的尽头就必然是一堵无法逾越的物理高墙。
别再觉得一太瓦的超级工厂只是他在麦克风前的随口狂想了，当一个狠人把工业制造的目标定在超出全世界三十倍的极限位置上，他从一开始就没打算跟现有的玩家在同一个棋盘里抢饭吃，他要做的，是用工业怪兽的绝对吨位，把人类文明推进下一个计算纪元。
Jason Alderwick retweeted
Sadly factually incorrect Luke. 90% of the work will be done in the US. Airbus and the entire UK supply chain will disappear because of the crisis in the geo market and the reciprocal European work goes. Any UK work will be the equivalent of fitting the wheels on a US built car.
Jason Alderwick retweeted
🛰️ Andy Burnham must settle a bitter battle on Earth between rival American and European companies over the future in space of a critical UK military satellite system.
Four industry sources said the prime minister is reviewing a decision - thought to have been taken by the Ministry of Defence - to award the £2.4bn Skynet contract to the US defence firm, Lockheed Martin, instead of sticking with its European rival, Airbus.
The British arm of Airbus has long delivered the capability, which handles the UK's most sensitive data and is designed to be "unhackable".
Sources that support Airbus warned that giving the contract to a US company - even the UK branch of Lockheed Martin - would be a "betrayal" of the British space and defence industry.
Though sources that back Lockheed point out that Airbus is a European, not a UK, firm.
The review by Mr Burnham is thought to have come after the head of Airbus wrote to the prime minister in recent weeks to make the case for why the contract to provide two new military-grade satellites should stay with his firm.
Airbus has warned that 3,000 highly skilled jobs in Britain, designing and building satellites, could be lost. ⬇️
news.sky.com/story/pm-review…
Jason Alderwick retweeted
More money to keep UK safe?
👇Cheering from Labour benches - as no serious spending, to keep our nation safe until 2030, is confirmed.
We are gambling with our national security- hoping hostile actors will PAUSE their aggression - until Britain is ready.
Jason Alderwick retweeted
Despite a direction from me when Defence Secretary that the Skynet 6A , £2bn contract was too important to the UK space industry to offshore to Lockheed Martin it looks as if Wes is preparing to place the contract overseas. The damage it would do to Stevenage and the UK satellite industry would be irreversible and it was always assessed it could mean the end of the sector. Lockheed’s promises of factories in Newcastle were skin deep. The differences between types on offer were marginal. No.10 could, and should stop this. @AirbusDefence @wesstreeting @larisamlbrown @kevinbonavia @haynesdeborah
Jason Alderwick retweeted
💥With UK households urged to stock supplies for a crisis, what about companies?
We filmed a business wargame, with executives from various sectors - water, energy, telecoms - pretending to run 2 fictitious companies at a time of escalating hostilities ⬇️
news.sky.com/video/inside-a-…
No thank you in the UK we prefer to take twenty years arguing over its utility and then building something on site very very slowly….
Please make this real: Nuclear powered ships producing massive mounts of electricity that can sail to any port in the world and plug into any grid in the world. The ships are big enough. The tech is safe enough. The demand is there. A true global market for clean, safe, abundant electricity. 3 month contracts, 3 year contracts, 3 decade contracts. It doesn’t matter; from Durban to Dubai, Abuja to Mombasa, Rio to Singapore, Manila to Managua, Calcutta to Tripoli. Efficient markets, demand driven, tech enabled. South Korea can be an energy exporter, Japan can be an energy exporter, America, France, the UK- this changes humanity, for the better, forever.
Jason Alderwick retweeted
Please make this real: Nuclear powered ships producing massive mounts of electricity that can sail to any port in the world and plug into any grid in the world. The ships are big enough. The tech is safe enough. The demand is there. A true global market for clean, safe, abundant electricity. 3 month contracts, 3 year contracts, 3 decade contracts. It doesn’t matter; from Durban to Dubai, Abuja to Mombasa, Rio to Singapore, Manila to Managua, Calcutta to Tripoli. Efficient markets, demand driven, tech enabled. South Korea can be an energy exporter, Japan can be an energy exporter, America, France, the UK- this changes humanity, for the better, forever.
Jason Alderwick retweeted
Our fund has $200m for deployment, we are unlikely to invest in the UK for one simple reason; what addressable funding there is goes on low cost welding or direct to the US for high end missiles, UAVs and satellites. Its all PR talk and no hard decisions.
politico.eu/article/britain-…
Much business and society could learn from this approach and I’m not just saying this as I hurtle towards retirement….
Jason Alderwick retweeted
American threats to black mail Europe over Space and restrict space communications access so their president can have someone to blame for his disastrous Iran war isnt a great look. How far we have fallen.
🇺🇸🇪🇺 FT: Washington claims that European business could suffer serious losses if the EU restricts access to its market for American companies, including SpaceX.
And Elon Musk's company warned that such a move could negatively affect the quality of communications in Ukraine, where Starlink provides important communication channels for the civilian population and the military.
Jason Alderwick retweeted
Ok, let’s have a “frank conversation” about British military capabilities.
The British Army has just 2 divisions and 12 155mm artillery pieces.
The British Navy, once the envy of the world, is now a shadow of its former self with 6 destroyers, most of which aren’t mission capable, and 5 frigates, most of which are ancient and breaking.
But even if the UK wanted to field a proper military (they don’t) recent polls show a vast majority of Britons aren’t interested in fighting for their country.
Army chief says politicians to start 'frank conversation' with public to prepare for war trib.al/tnbIX0Q
Jason Alderwick retweeted
🇬🇧 Are Britons ready for the sacrifices needed to strengthen national security?
Speaking to soldiers in Catterick Garrison the head of the British Army warns Britons must face a “frank conversation” about the sacrifices needed for defence and security🔗forcesnews.com/services/army…
Jason Alderwick retweeted
For some time I’ve been warning about the influence war being fought online.⬇️⬇️
In June last year, when Iran was hit and internet connectivity there was disrupted, dozens of anonymous social media accounts championing Scottish independence suddenly went quiet. I pointed this out at the time, and despite the reporting, some people in my comments insisted I was making it up.
I wasn’t. And the wider threat is something we need to take seriously.
This week we’ve seen what happens when Russia gets hit. Ukraine struck three Yandex data centres and automated traffic from its network fell by around 94%.
And all of a sudden, people are reporting that some MAGA, anti-Zelensky, pro-AfD and other far-right accounts have gone unusually quiet. We can’t say these things are connected — the Yandex figures measure automated web traffic, not political social media activity — but the reports raise questions worth investigating.
Because we already know there is a substantial machinery of foreign interference working to manipulate political debate online.
If you don’t think this is happening here, you’re being naive to the threat. It’s happening now.
Whatever the Russians did or didn’t manage to achieve during the Brexit referendum, we know they’ve spent years trying to interfere in our politics and drive division online.
So ask yourself: when it comes to divisive political issues, why do certain arguments dominate our feeds? Why does outrage so often suck the air out of everything else? How much is genuine political debate, how much is amplified by algorithms, and how much is being deliberately pushed by hostile states?
Not every political disagreement is manufactured. Of course it isn’t. But those disagreements are being exploited online by hostile actors because a divided population is far easier to influence than a country that stands together.
We need to get much more serious about foreign interference in British politics.
euronews.com/2026/10/12/did-…
Jason Alderwick retweeted
Extraordinary letter in @ft from former UK defence attaché at Moscow embassy - we warned you about Putin but you listened to the City instead
European wake up call…. Again!
Ukraine's targeting of Russian data centers is exposing the true nature of the online support for not just America's Republican party, anti-Ukraine and secession movements globally, but Germany's AFD as well.
This whole platform is just Russia's plaything, supporting the Russia/Musk/Trump global fascist movement.
Jason Alderwick retweeted
Ukraine's targeting of Russian data centers is exposing the true nature of the online support for not just America's Republican party, anti-Ukraine and secession movements globally, but Germany's AFD as well.
This whole platform is just Russia's plaything, supporting the Russia/Musk/Trump global fascist movement.
Jason Alderwick retweeted
Congress finally attempts to stop Putin's takeover of the US government.
We will be introducing bipartisan legislation to block any and all purchases of Russian oil. It will be called the “Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act.” It will be forced to the Floor via discharge and it will pass overwhelmingly. #PeaceThroughStrength
Jason Alderwick retweeted
At the end of the 90s, before the devastating cuts of the 2000s, the British Army SHORAD allocation with the then new STARSTREAK HVM called for 1 regiment for each Division (12 RA with 1XX, 47 RA with 3XX). Each regiment had 3 batteries, 1 per brigade. Each Battery had 3 Troops, one per Battlegroup.
Each troop had 12 Fire Units.
Each Fire unit had 20 missiles (a Stormer has 8 ready to fire, 12 stored) in Self Propelled batteries; 10 in LML batteries.
Each Division also had a RAPIER regiment, with 1 Bty per Brigade, 8 Fire Units per each battery.
THAT was the kind of density of air defence when air attacks where to be expected anywhere on the battlefield.
Now the threat is back to being THAT pervasive, and indeed more, with drones opening up precision strikes at a lower tactical level still.
I do not see how the Army can continue to escape the truth that Air Defence must return to be THAT dense. With indeed a new, even more pervasive lower layer added via EW and RWS with suitable C-UAS capability on many of the frontline, non-air defence vehicles.
At present, the ENTIRE ARMY has no more than 38 Stormer HVM left in service, plus 12 (?) LML.
That's enough coverage, with 1999 metrics, for 4 battlegroups. Not brigades, not divisions. BGs.
BGs that at the time would be spread over less ground than they would be now under new concepts of employments, by the way.
And it can field only a couple of SKY SABRE batteries.
It should not be remotely controversial to say that a huge priority should be attached to rebuilding air defences so each Brigade has its own Bty aligned.
Each Division should have its own SKY SABRE regiment, too.
This should be the minimum starting point for any discussion. I don't think it's even debatable.
Try harder
I know people are worried about fuel prices. And I get it. You get to the pump, watch the numbers climb, and wonder why it's costing so much more than it used to.
The reality is that global events are pushing up costs, and families here at home are feeling the impact.
But I won't accept that there's nothing I can do to help.
That's why from today, you'll be able to see petrol and diesel prices on Google Maps, compare nearby stations and find the cheapest option before you fill up.
It's a small change, but if there's a practical way to help people keep more money in their pocket, I'll do it.