Professor @Harvard, Director @HarvardBizGov, Senior Fellow @PIIE, teaches Ec10, words @nytopinion, proprietor https://xitter.gq/t.co/4eOTjrd0x4, was Chair of Pres Obama's CEA.
Cambridge, MA
Joined April 2011
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I'm thrilled to be launching Econvitals today. It's been the main way in which I have been tracking and understanding the economy over the last several months. And I decided I might as well share it with all of you--for free.
Has a combo of website, email lists & social media.
Most policy issues don't actually depend on the question of whether the top 1% share of income is rising, falling or staying the same.
As I shared with my class on Monday.
Jason Furman retweeted
You know this (/are clear on this in the Fed talk) but I actually think it's worth emphasizing that consumer confidence is not "happiness"
"Life satisfaction" is in fact up since 2019 (though, even worse, other metrics of "happiness" are mixed)
Jason Furman retweeted
🧵on the AI audit of Saez and Zucman and by implication Piketty (or PSZ together):
Since some are objecting to what the computer found, here's a list of biases in this trio's work that were found by humans over the last decade.
1. AI should play a large role before we see anything from anyone so it comes out right in the first place.
2. AI should play a big role in retrospective replications.
3. Piketty-Saez-Zucman work has many flaws that all go one direction.
Spreading slop hurts all three causes.
Jason Furman retweeted
Markets after the GDP and PCE release, by 11:05 ET: 2-year yield -8 bp, 10-year yield -6 bp, dollar index -0.2%, S&P 500 futures -0.1%. Fed funds priced for after Dec 9: -2 bp, from 4.11% to 4.09%, or +22 bp vs the 3.875% target midpoint.
Best roundup on this issue I've seen:
Not sure what is more striking—how bad the research audited here seems to be, or the thought that a lot of other research might come out similarly shaky.
Via @tylercowen / @MargRev – saez-zucman-audit-replicatio…
BEA has quarterly GDP data back to 1947. Of the 318 quarters it tracks this was the third most negative contribution from net exports (and the second largest was 2025-Q1).
That is, much of the consumption, investment, etc was imported--so take 3.3pp of GDP off what those added.
Very strong GDP numbers, a touch higher than expected. More later from me, for now you can read @econvitals
Inflation came in pretty much as expected which is, well, quite high.
In Econvitals charts the solid dots are compared to what people thought yesterday, those are all close to zero. The hollow circles are absolute, those are all quite high.
The PCE-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure for September was 3.0%. Here are the different pieces that go into it, the median of a number of different inflation series, all re-meaned to match the mean of the PCE the Fed targets.
