Raised in New York City’s most liberal neighborhood. Conservative by the grace of God. Ask me for my Signal #.
Among all the lost causes.
Joined March 2007
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John Carney retweeted
Here’s my case, at length, against permanent DST or permanent Standard Time. aei.org/commentary/the-sunsh…
Oh look. I found a failure already. Manufacturing construction spending described as being in a “free fall” when it is far above prepandemic trend and no reference to subsidies.
And, guess what? Cato dude loves it.
"like a melting clock, economists say that the notion that tariffs are driving a U.S. manufacturing boom is a surrealist dream." politico.com/newsletters/wee…
John Carney retweeted
Happy birthday to Theodore Roosevelt!
TR "stood squarely for the McKinley policies": the home market for American labor, American wages, American mills.
If you are a journalist doing a story on manufacturing and your focus is on construction spending, you are failing at your job if you do not mention three things: 1) subsidies pulling forward spending during Biden era, 2) spending still being much higher than prepandemic, and 3) the fact that no one paid any attention to this until Biden administration.
Go forth and report.
John Carney retweeted
I visited the Last Ditch lesbian bar
mamathemagazine.com/the-last…
One problem with Plato is that when you dive deep enough into a dialogue you realize that you want to do nothing else. Everything but understanding it seems trivial.
Breitbart Business Digest: Volatility Won‘t Stand in Warsh‘s Way breitbart.com/economy/2026/1… via @BreitbartNews
John Carney retweeted
Recent rise in 10-year yield attributable to rising real (inflation-adjusted) yield, not inflation expectations. Real interest rates now are "back to normal" (i.e., pre-2009 levels).
Some people have asked if this would be seen as “political interference” in the midterms.
I don’t think so. For one, some prominent Trump supporters think a hike makes sense. Two, it’s not the start of a hiking cycle but the continuation of one. Three, who is going to make that accusation?
“From a risk-management perspective, it probably makes sense to raise rates,” says Neil Dutta, head of US economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady this week bloom.bg/4i6gbKu
This is correct!
“From a risk-management perspective, it probably makes sense to raise rates,” says Neil Dutta, head of US economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady this week bloom.bg/4i6gbKu
Counter-point: women with short hair tend to be underbid in the dating and marriage market. Even if you prefer long hair, there’s an obvious arbitrage opportunity since most women with very short hair in their youth will grow their hair out later.
Making the color green is quite an insane choice.
Tonight, Cardiff Castle will light up green to mark Dwarfism Awareness Day. 💚
The illumination celebrates diversity and helps raise awareness and understanding of dwarfism. orlo.uk/S4Qel
ALT Cardiff Castle illuminated at night by bright green floodlights against a dark sky. Caer Castell Caerdydd wedi'i oleuo wrth nos gan fflachlysau gwyrdd disglair yn erbyn awyr dywyll.
The public sector’s debt is a private sector assets but also a private sector liability. Ultimately, government borrowing creates claims on the private sector.
Great video.
Here’s my succinct version of your (and my) objection: the MMT sectoral accounting records the private sector’s claims on government (bonds issued, deficits, debt) without capitalizing the government’s corresponding claims on private resources.
What appears to be an accumulation of net financial assets or net saving by the private sector is only an illusion. In fact, the public sectors liabilities are really the private sector’s through an intermediary.
The bond holder is paid off through the government with private sector assets.
In other words, the public sector’s liabilities are really the private sector’s. Since the government has almost no income generating assets of its own, its liabilities must be serviced with the private sector’s assets.
Welcome back to FOMC week.
Here’s what I wrote on Friday. If Warsh really wants to break the habit of watching the Fed rather than the economy, he’s probably got to hike.
Why did liberalism collapse in the UK? My controversial thesis is that successful liberalism depends on a sense of looming civil war. It’s a compromise, a peace settlement. When the threat of domestic war fades, the willingness to abide by the compromise falls away.
John Carney retweeted
I appreciate the level of both innumeracy and ignorance needed to reject this chart on grounds that IEEPA tariffs were struck down in Feb 2026.
Innumeracy: If you look at the first derivative (i.e., month over month change), most of the shift occurs by February.
> 2024 rate: (-15k)/mo
> 12/25-2/26 rate: level
> 7/26-9/26 rate: +12k/mo
Or, put another way, acceleration in job growth after IEEPA ruling accounts for less than one-third of the job gain over 2024 baseline rate.
Ignorance: Trump administration immediately replaced IEPPA tariffs with Section 122 tariffs and then Section 301 tariffs. The average tariff rate at time of Court ruling was 5.1x pre-Trump level. Average tariff rate since has been 4.2x pre-Trump level (source: Yale Budget Lab).
If your point is that an effective tariff rate of 13.8% is a policy disaster but a rate of 11.3% is great trade policy that drives manufacturing employment higher... I mean, 🤷♂️
Good chart from this week's The Real Economy @commonplc:
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026. The employment gains above trend shown in the chart occurred after the ruling. scotusblog.com/2026/02/suprem… fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP