7311 🐉 $MON

2026 Topps Chrome F1 Sapphire Deep Dive Typically, Sapphire releases are pretty straightforward to analyze. Production numbers and Hit Rates tend to remain fairly consistent from one Sapphire release to the next. Sure, some versions do a better job than others of cramming hits into those 8 packs. But generally speaking, you know what you're getting when you buy a box of Sapphire. F1 Sapphire is no different. In many ways, it's a very standard Sapphire release. So why does it also have me scratching my head more than any Sapphire drop in recent memory? The numbers are not difficult to translate. So if you have a few minutes to spare, please join me for today's episode of "WTF are they thinking?!" Maybe we can figure out just that. Welcome to 2026 Topps Chrome F1 Sapphire. Part 1: Let's Set a Foundation If you want a refresher on what good Sapphire releases are supposed to look like, as well as one with pretty lousy dynamics and price point, here's a Sapphire combo I broke down a short while ago that can help set that foundation. xitter.gq/WaxMetrix/status/20684… If you don't need extra reading in your life, don't worry about it..you'll still understand this one just fine by the time I'm finished. Part 2: The Basics F1 Sapphire drops tomorrow, November 12 at Noon CT via EQL. Per usual, configuration is the standard 8 packs of 4 cards. Drop price will be $1200/box. I know. We'll get there. It's certainly worth noting that 2025 F1 Sapphire dropped in February of this year at $450/box, which was quite an increase over 2024 F1 Sapphire, which was $280/box. Part 3: Production Numbers Total cards in product: 408,800 Boxes produced: 12,775 (1,278 cases) This is notable as it's 22% higher than last year's production run of 1,048 cases, a very standard size among Sapphire releases. Part 4: Heat Map Expected Hit Rates Per Box: Autos- 1 Parallels/# Cards- 3 Inserts- 1 per 10 boxes (1/case) When compared to 2025 F1 Sapphire, you might think this is a better product. We now have 1 auto/box. Last year, autos fell roughly every other box...so this year HAS to be better, right? Not so fast. Though 1 auto/box certainly sounds better than 0.55 autos/box, let's dig a little deeper. Last year, there were 66 auto subjects, in a sport that features a total of 22 drivers on the grid from 11 different teams. I understand the need to also feature F2 & F3 drivers as they could be future stars. There were also a handful of team personnel to fill out the auto checklist. This year, there are a whopping 100 names on the main Sapphire auto checklist! Not only are the F1, F2, & F3 drivers represented, but now we have some extra team personnel, 9 F1 Academy Drivers, and 17 F1 Legends. I mean, Legends are never a bad add, and of course there are a handful of monster names on the auto checklist. But 100 seems like debauchery to me. F1 gurus, feel free to correct me. This may work for a Topps Chrome production run, but please don't do that to Sapphire. So you're getting more autos. But you're also slogging through a larger checklist to find the names you want. I'm not convinced that's much of an imporovement. I'd call that a net neutral. But what if I told you the dynamics are now worse in every other way? Parallels went from 3.4/box in 2025 to right at 3/box. Inserts...where do I even start. Last year, inserts fell at a rate of ~0.8 per box, or about 8 per case. I thought it was a great idea last year to have 5 additional inserts sets over the typical Sapphire Selections and Infinite, all of which by definition were classified as rare inserts. You could pull 1975 Speed Wheels, Ace of Trades, Floor It, Helmet Collection, and Speed Demons. These added some pleasant variety and another option for pulling some of the biggest names in the sport. Not to mention they were all numbered /50 or lower, so they all ended up being more scarce than Sapphire Selections or Infinite. This year your Insert subsets checklist consists of...Infinite. That's it. I mean, Infinite is great and all. And they will only fall 1 per case, so it's still a treat to pull one. And there are Sapphire Selections Autos, but no non-auto version. This really seems like an extraneous stripping down of something that was perfectly fine the way it was. And one more added insult, Padparadscha 1/1s fell approximately 1 in 3 cases last year. This year, they are 1 in ~4 cases. Part 5: Value Map (Based on $1200 drop price) $/Card- $37.50 $/Parallel- $394.67 $/Auto- $1,167.96 $/Rare Insert- $11,924.17 $/Quality Hit- $287.87 Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do? I'm really trying to find some justification for this $1200 price tag. Here's the best I can do: •2025 F1 Sapphire boxes are currently an astronomical ~$3,000 if you can even find them. But we've already established that the dynamics of 2025 are quite a bit better than 2026. And 2025 featured a generational rookie in Kimi Antonelli. •NFL Sapphire dropped at $1500/box. NBA Update Sapphire dropped at $1800/box. This is not NBA or NFL. F1 definitely has global appeal, but the stateside popularity is far behind both NBA & NFL. We literally had the same product, except a better version of it, drop in February at $450/box. You think Topps realized they left some money on the table with that one? I understand this year's rookie class has some depth, and may also be very good. But a nearly 3x drop price bump from earlier this year is definitely a decision. An utterly poor one in my humble opinion. But here's the thing...will it still increase in value over that $1200 drop price? God I hope not. But honestly, the F1 market is weird, bro...so probably. I have no doubt that the online succubuses will promptly tack on their massive margins out the gate and we will see these priced at $2k+. Are they worth it? Not a chance. The Squatch is 100% out on this one. $1200 or $2k+...doesn't matter. I love me some Sapphire. But I also love not lighting money on fire. That shit's kinda hard to come by. Part 7: Estimated Print Runs Base card production: ~1,780 ea Infinite- ~120 ea I'm not quite sure if Base Sapphire Autos will be numbered. I presume not. However, they have the same odds as Gold /50 Autos. So their print run will also be ~50 or less. Everything else should be numbered. #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsChromeF1Sapphire

A Little Housekeeping- I have 5 products to clean up: 2026 Museum Collection MLB 2026 Museum Collection UEFA 2026 Inception NFL 2026 Five Star MLB 2026 Royalty UFC The thing about these premium(ish) or at least more limited products: when nearly every card is numbered, there aren't a whole lot of mysteries left for me to solve. Topps already tells us the hit rates. Nearly all the print runs are stamped right on the cards. And if you're spending this kind of money on wax, you probably have a pretty good idea of what you're getting yourself into. You really don't need the Squatch squawking about lousy value investments. I can still dig into overall production, make a few relevant comparisons to similar releases, and maybe uncover a nugget or two worth discussing. But honestly, that's about it. There's not need to do a deep dive on these when a few basic facts will do the trick. So I'll be knocking all these out with one post. Let's do it. 2026 Museum Collection MLB Drop date: Tomorrow, Wednesday November 11th @ 12pm CT Box pricing: $420 Last year's launch pricing: $400 Surprisingly, from a drop price perspective, these haven't spiked in price much, having been right around that $400 price point for a few years now. However, secondary market certainly has with last year's boxes currently listed at ~$750/box at online resellers. And as expected, pre-orders of 2026 Museum are already at ~$750 as well on the same sites. Total cards in product- 355,360 2025 Museum- 327,200 YOY +8.6% Total Hobby boxes produced- 44,420 (5,553 cases) Configuration: 1 pack of 8 cards Boxes calculate to 2.2 Autos/box (1.2 Autos, 1 Relic Auto). Topps states 2, so I would expect to see an extra auto in some boxes. 1 Relic/box. The rest will be a combo of base & base parallels. Price Metrics (at $420 drop price): $/Card- $52.50 $/Parallel- $240.34 $/Auto- $190.26 $/Quality Hit- $135.73 Base card print run: ~1,280 ea I believe everything else is numbered. Takeaways: •At drop price, I don't hate this as a rip. $420 seems fair enough for 2-ish autos and a relic, with some nice top-end name potential. •I'd call it a safe stash. Just know that simply because online donks have it priced at $750 doesn't mean it will sell for that. If you're flipping or stashing to resell later, you will likely have to come in well lower in order to actually unload them. •~$136 per Quality Hit is actually solid. I would rip this at $420/box over most other premium MLB products. Museum has a nice higher-end look and feel without a bonkers price. There really are some fantastic cards in the product. Atelier Auto Book Cards are awesome. But be aware there are also plenty of autos that would be a bummer to pull from any box, much less a $420 one. • If you can't land it on drop, take the lump and move on. It's definitely not a $750/box product. 2026 Museum Collection UEFA Drop date: September 18th. Release day price- $400 Current market price- $650 There's also a Hat Trick SKU with 6 Autos/3 Relics per box, but they're tough to find and $2200/box seems pretty ludicrous. Total cards in product: 249,864 (This is 30% smaller than Museum MLB.) Total Boxes produced: Hobby- 28,200 boxes (3,525 cases) Hat Trick- 2,696 boxes (337 cases) Configuration: 1 pack of 8 cards Hit Rates in UEFA should be very similar to the MLB version, except it's not showing extra autos with any regularity. There is not as broad of a checklist, so there are higher numbered variants than you'll find in MLB. Hit Rates: 2 Total Autos (1 Relic Auto), 1 Relic per box. Price Metrics (at current market price of $650/Hobby): $/card- $81.25 $/Parallel- $325.00 $/Auto- $325.00 $/Quality Hit- $291.57 Unlike Museum MLB, there are 2 Insert subsets in UEFA, Museum Roll of Honor & The Grail, an ongoing one-card insert set featuring Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Base Card Print Run: ~865 copies ea Takeaways: •Tons of star power potential. Again, some fantastic looking cards. Legacy Laces Auto Relics are amazing. •Since I wasn't able to analyze before launch, the window has closed on getting it for a reasonable price. •~$292 per quality hit is rough for a soccer product, regardless of the density of huge names. 2026 Inception NFL Drop date: Last Friday, November 6th. Release day price: $380/box Current Market: $465/box Total cards in product: 390,600 Total boxes produced: Hobby- 54,000 (6,750 cases) First Day Issue- 1,800 (225 cases) Configuration: 1 pack of 7 cards Hit Rates: 1.5 Autos/Box (Topps states 1 Auto/Box), 2 Parallels, 1.5 Numbered Cards There are two Inserts subsets, which are both rare and should combine to fall ~1 per case: Launch & Rookie Short Prints. Price Metrics: $/Card- $54.29 $/Parallel- $190.00 $/Auto- $259.84 $/# Card- $254.67 $/Rare Insert- $3,040.00 $/Quality Hit- $255.42 Print Runs: Base cards- ~900 ea Base Green- ~125 ea Rookie Green- ~125 ea Launch (25 card CL)- ~140 ea Rookie Short Prints (25 card CL)- ~140 ea Rookie Auto Variations (20 card CL)- ~275 ea Rookie Auto Variations Green- ~200 ea Rookie Autos (46 card CL)- ~300 ea Rookie Autos Green- ~200 ea Takeaways: •Looks like an acid trip on cardboard. Honestly, I don't hate it. •From a production standpoint, this is not far off of Museum MLB, showing that it is a very limited product. •One stated auto per box with a checklist of almost entirely rookies makes for an awfully low floor. Hopefully for rippers, the odds stand true because they're showing extra Autos. •I don't believe there's ever been a single Inception SKU that I would call a good value. Inception is priced like a premium product, with an appropriate production run. But for some reason singles values have never done much in baseball. I suspect the same will be true for football. 2026 Five Star MLB Drop date: October 28th Release day price: $1,200/box 🤢 Current market: $2,275/box 🤮 Total cards in product: 54,512 Total Boxes produced: 9,085 (3,028 cases) Configuration: 6 packs of 1 card per box Hit Rates: 5 autos, 1 parallel or base /50, 0.7 Relic Autos/box Price Metrics (based on market price of $2,275/box): $/Card- $379.17 $/Auto- $455.00 $/Quality Hit- $454.76 Everything should be numbered: Takeaways: •Despite the abysmal price tag, I suppose there was an argument to be made at drop price that, with 5 autos, it wasn't a terrible value. At $1200, it's $240/Auto and ~$240/Quality Hit. Not for me, but ok. I'm hip. But at $2k+, that ship has sailed. •Cool cards & big names, but singles value is not commensurate with box pricing. This is the perfect "Buy Singles" product. 2026 Topps Royalty UFC Drop date: Friday, November 13 at 12pm CT via EQL Release day price- $800 Last year's release price- $500 This is excessive. Total Cards in product: 107,000 Boxes produced: 10,700 (2,675 cases) This represents a 36% increase over Royalty WWE. This is also excessive. Configuration: 1 pack of 10 cards Hit Rates: 5 Autos, 3 Relics, 1 Base /99 & 1 Base Parallel Price Metrics: $/Card- $80.00 $/Auto- $160.00 $/Quality Hit- $88.89 (Every single card in the product aside from base /99 qualifies as a Quality Hit.) Everything should be numbered. Takeaways: •Royalty UFC contains one of the coolest inserts in all of sports cards, Liquid Silver, and its 1/1 parallel Liquid Gold. They are, however, incredibly rare, falling at a combined rate of 1 per ~102 boxes. There are only 105 copies (100 Silver, 5 Gold) throughout the entire product. • This would be an exciting rip, but $800 for a UFC product makes that rough. ~$89 per Quality Hit is actually pretty solid. But keep in mind the UFC singles market is soft, so that figure needs to be enticing to rip. I would not discourage anyone from ripping this at $800. I would love to myself. But it's a little out of my comfort zone. If I land any, I'll likely stash for future ROI. • I love Royalty as a premium product. It gives off strong National Treasures vibes. But I have some beefs: 1) Apparently, the packaging needs some work. When the big scandal happened over the WWE Royalty/Cena Wrestlemania Patch fiasco, many were saying it's pretty easy to crack and reseal the boxes. I haven't had one in hand, so I'm going off other's testimonies. But in a premium product like Royalty, that's a problem. This is one I would heavily avoid buying from ebay. 2) Royalty WWE was $750/box at launch. It also contained one more Auto and one less Relic than it's UFC counterpart. UFC should not be priced higher than WWE. Similar, yes. Higher, no. Especially for less substance. It won't matter for long because the nature of the product will certainly have it spiking shortly after drop, but keep in mind it was only $500 last year. Topps is letting its greed show a bit with this one. #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics

If you value your time, please don't go watch this way-too-long breakdown of 2026/27 Topps Flagship NBA. If you need over 1 hour of the most boring, tedious, and uninteresting content imaginable to go to sleep to...I gotchu. youtu.be/Z7g6P3auWIE

2026/27 Topps Flagship NBA Deep Dive- Round 2 Yesterday, I dove into all the newly shrunken box dynamics and total production numbers. If you missed that breakdown, you can see it here: xitter.gq/WaxMetrix/status/21186… I do have one correction to make on that: It turns out Black Friday boxes will have 10 packs of 12, rather than the 7 packs initially reported. This makes them the only format that will actually increase in card count. I have updated the Hit Rates on my Substack. But the X post will forever be inaccurate because X does not allow me to edit anything after the first hour. The only numbers affected are the Hit Rates per box. So now you know all the numbers. Today, we'll tie those to dollar amounts in an attempt to figure out if any formats are actually worth spending money on. But first, in part 1, I detailed how "juiced" this year's Flagship is over last years. But let's put some context to that. "Juiced" is based on Hit Rates. And across the board, most formats are friendlier for hits than they were last year. However, by "hits", meaning Autos, Relics, and numbered cards, we're talking about less than 3 million total cards. In a 480 million card product. That's 0.625%. So is it better than last year? By dynamics alone, I would argue yes. Are you going to actually notice? Not at all. This is not a "juiced" product. It's Flagship. It's the opposite of juiced. Which is exactly the way it’s supposed to be. Part 5: Value Map Since Hobby & Jumbo are now officially sold out at retail, I'm going with aftermarket pricing of $225/Hobby & $425/Jumbo. All Retail SKUs are based on Retail pricing. Also, for Costco/Sam's Super Boxes, I'm basing the configuration on last year's boxes as I don't have confirmation yet on what they look like this year, so they could be slightly off. But they deserve to not be left off the list. $/Card: 1) Costco/Sam's Flagship Collection- 21¢ 2) Fat Packs/Black Friday Values- 29¢ 3) Megas/ASG Megas- 33¢ 4) Hangers- 38¢ 5) Value Box/Fanatics Value Box- 42¢ $/Parallel: 1) Black Friday Value Box- $2.64 2) Fanatics Value Box- $3.81 3) Value Box- $4.96 4) Mega Box- $5.10 5) ASG Mega- $5.55 $/Auto: 1) Fat Pack- $350.00 2) Jumbo- $372.81 3) Hobby- $409.09 4) Value/Mega/ASG Mega- $600.00 5) Fanatics Value/Black Friday Value- $700.00 $/# Card: 1) ASG Mega- $67.42 2) Black Friday Value- $111.30 3) Jumbo- $122.13 4) Fat Pack- $122.64 5) Mega- $126.00 $/Rare Variation: 1) Black Friday Value- $1,236.55 2) Fat Pack- $1,349.67 3) Hobby- $1,397.25 4) Fanatics Value- $1,446.20 5) Jumbo- $1,687.25 $/Rare Insert: 1) Jumbo- $2,550.00 2) Hobby- $2.722.50 3) Hanger- $5,189.58 4) Fat Pack- $6,592.60 5) Black Friday Value- $6,660.15 $/Quality Hit: Includes all Parallels/Inserts /77 or less, Case Hit or rarer inserts, and Autos/Relics /100 or less. 1) ASG Megas- $150.60 2) Black Friday Values- $265.65 3) Jumbo- $335.75 4) Costco/Sam's Flagship Collection- $400.95 5) Hobby- $425.25 6) Hangers- $441.72 7) Value Boxes- $548.70 8) Fanatics Value- $616.70 9) Fat Pack- $639.38 10) Megas- $743.40 Part 6: Best Value Formats The last metric sums it up for me. Though I'm not going to call any of these a wicked good deal and go hard, if you want to rip Flagship, I would recommend staying with the top 4 on the "$ Per Quality Hits" list: ASG Megas (when they come out in Feb), Black Friday Values (when they drop later this month), Jumbos, or Flagship Collection Super Boxes. And honestly, even those numbers are not stellar. I like that they are releasing the ASG Megas for basketball as they were also the best retail format for baseball. They score well in Quality Hits since they're slightly denser in numbered cards. By the time these release, I suspect they'll look like an even better deal as other formats dry up. They should be a fun rip. Many will tell you Fat Packs are the way to go for retail, mostly due to the low cost of pulling any random auto. But not me. I have zero faith in them. Outside of the auto anomaly, there's just no substance. And keep in mind, only 14% of autos in the product are numbered. I would avoid unless you need to scratch the itch with a cheap rip. Honesty, retail in general is a wasteland for Flagship basketball. I wouldn't spend any significant money on any of it unless you expect to get slaughtered. For fun rips, just go with ASG Megas & Black Friday Values. Of the retail formats, the Black Friday boxes are also the only one I foresee as being flippable. They'll be fresh when everything else is stale. And they're black. Black parallels look cool or something. I don't know exactly why, but they were definitely flippable last year. Part 7: What Would the Squatch Do? If you got Hobby or Jumbo at launch pricing, I think they are a safe stash. Yes, there are boatloads out there. But I feel like they'll slowly creep up in price just like last year's product did. I am sitting on some Jumbos myself and won't even think about ripping them. They're going in the vault. Part 8: The Rookie Card Fiasco We're one day in and I've already seen dozens of reports of people pulling zero base rookies from their Hobby boxes. Some have only pulled a couple base rookies, while other have pulled 40-50 base rookies from a Hobby box. While base rookies aren't really the chase since there are over 1mil of each, this is definitely a problem. Rookies as a whole are one of the reasons to buy a product, and this class is deep. First, nothing in the odds would indicate why this is happening. Base rookies are not short prints. And there are not separate odds for the rookies as opposed to any other base cards. It seems to be an issue of faulty collation. It seems rookie inserts are still coming out of these boxes. Rookie parallels as well. Hopefully, it's only the actual rookie base that's an issue. And quite honestly, I have no idea what a fix would be. Topps has certainly not acknowledged that it's an issue. And even if they do, they don't guarantee a certain amount of rookies from a Hobby box. I've heard of some people making damage claims to Topps. I think this is something they definitely would like to know. Hopefully they'll get enough of these requests and actually take some action to fix the issue. It wouldn't surprise me if they send cards to those who turn in claims. They've shown a willingness to fix some blunders in the past, so it's worth a shot. If this affects you, I encourage you to go through the claims process on the Topps website, or at least give them a call and see what's up. Unlike Panini, they actually answer the phone. Part 9: Estimated Print Runs Base Card Production- ~1,318,675 ea Silver Pack Base- ~16,730 ea This print run list is massive. I already have it posted to my Substack. If you want to check that out, here's the link: slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2… #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsFlagshipNBA

2026/27 Topps Flagship NBA Deep Dive- Part 1 Let's just get this out of the way. It's Flagship. And Flagship can be BRUTAL. By nature, it's going to be a tough rip a vast majority of the time. If you're not prepared for that, you may want to avoid ripping Flagship. It has a habit of lulling you to sleep, making a rip feel like manual labor, and then dropping a nuclear bomb on you. Just because it's flagship doesn't mean there aren't nukes. But in a SHOCKING turn of events, Hobby boxes are STILL available at the time of writing, a full 12 hours after launch. Some of you are going to say it's printed to the moon. Who am I kidding...all of you are going to say it's printed to the moon. That's fair. You're not wrong. But what if I told you this year's Flagship NBA might just be better than last year's? Have you checked the price of 2025/26 Flagship NBA boxes recently? Let me help you out... Current pricing on (name withheld because I can't stomach promoting them): Hobby- $430/box Jumbo- $610/box Last year's rookie class may have been a bit more top heavy, but from what I hear this class is far deeper, with some bona fide superstar potential. On one hand, I'm surprised I can just casually log on to Topps' site and buy one of the biggest products of the year at 11pm on launch day. But then again, there's a LOT of it. So, maybe I'm a little less surprised. Part 1: The Basics Product released today, November 5. Drop price was $180/Hobby & $350/Jumbo. So why is it I'm already seeing hobgoblins pricing Hobby at $250? I think they think we're stupid. The worst part is last year's hobby boxes dropped at $120 & Jumbos at $230. In technical terms, Flagship hobby at a drop price of $180 is straight buns. At least that's what my teenage son would say. I have to imagine that's a big part of why it's still available. Typical with a Flagship release, we have a whole mess of formats. Unfortunately, most of them increased in price from a year ago. But wait there's more. We can't just have prices going up. Naturally, when we pay more money, we have to get less for it. Part 2: Shrink-effing-flation In creating my spreadsheet, I began by highlighting the changes in configuration to each format, because there are always a couple. But when that process was over, it was one big highlight. Aside from Hobby, literally every single format changed from last year, and none got bigger. Jumbo- from 40 cards/pack to 28. Hangers- 59 cards down to 48. Fat Packs- 36 cards down to 24. Megas- 16 packs of 14 (224 cards) down to 12 packs of 15 (180 cards). Value Boxes- from 7 packs of 12 to 6 packs. Fanatics Value- from 9 packs of 12 to 7 packs. Black Friday Value- from 11 packs of 10 (110 cards) to 7 packs of 12 (84 cards). Part 3: Production Numbers Total cards in the product: 479,999,164 2025/26 Flagship NBA- 422,092,744 YOY: +13.7% For context, let's compare this to some other recent flagship releases: 2026 Flagship NFL- ~581m total cards 2026 Series 1 MLB- ~558m cards 2026/27 Flagship NBA- ~480m cards 2025 Series 1 MLB- ~446m cards 2025/26 Flagship NBA- ~430m cards Total production by Format: Hobby- 161,224 boxes (13,435 cases)--->YOY +31% Jumbo- 90,000 boxes (15,000 cases)--->YOY +43.3% Hangers- 1,095,000 boxes (17,109 cases)--->YOY +29.2% Fat Packs- 2,125,511 packs (19,681 cases)--->YOY +90% Value Boxes- 1,380,650 boxes (34,516 cases)--->YOY +28% Megas- 445,350 boxes (22,418 cases)--->YOY +89.7% Fanatics Value Boxes- 229,215 boxes (5,730 cases)--->YOY -4.7% Black Friday Value Boxes- 358,380 boxes (8,960 cases)--->YOY +3.7% Costco/Sam’s Club Flagship Collection Super Boxes- 306,810 boxes (25,568 cases)--->YOY +52.2% China EX Boxes Waves 1&2- 147,015 boxes (12,251 cases) *assuming 12 boxes/case--->YOY N/A All-Star Game Megas- 112,500 boxes (5,625 cases)--->YOY N/A Total production increased by a very modest 14%. However, production across individual formats is up an average of 40%. Am I the only one that's dumbfounded by that? That's a metric ton of extra boxes to sell...all for a very modest increase in total cards. Another masterclass in revenue maximization by Fanatics. *SIGH*...I understand this is going long. And we've only just begun. I'm going to Nerdville, and you're going with me. If you need a TLDR, I'm sure Grok got ya back. Now let's look at the dynamics of those 480m cards and how that compares to last year: Total Parallels: ~29,947,000 Last year- ~17,350,000 YOY: +72.6% Total Inserts: ~51,844,000 Last year- ~33,076,000 YOY: +56.7% Total Autos: ~427,860 Last year- ~308,740 YOY: +38.6% Total Relics: ~503,700 Last year- ~462,930 YOY: +8.8% My nerd brain needed this section. Getting ready to jump into hit rates of all the formats, and I've been wondering how the hell, with all the extra boxes produced, that hit rates have actually improved for almost every format. Well, I think I just found our answer. They juiced ALL of it. Last year, throughout this massive product, 87.9% of it consisted of base cards. This year, base accounts for only 82.4%. That is wild. If you consider "hits" to be Autos, Relics, & Numbered cards, the number of total hits jumped by 31%, from 2.25m to 2.95m. Part 4: Heat Map Expected Hit Rates by Format: Hobby: Autos- 0.55 (55% of boxes should contain an auto, this includes Silver Packs since they showed up on the odds.) Relics- 0.6 (This means Hobby should contain an average of 1.15 Autos/Relics per box, so I would expect to see extra hits with regularity.) Parallels- 6.1 Inserts- 13.3 Numbered Cards- 1.75 Jumbo: Autos- 1.15 (Including Silver Packs) Relics- 1.2 (Jumbos should produce an average of 2.35 Autos/Relics per box. More extra hits.) Parallels- 15.35 Inserts- 24.6 Numbered Cards- 5.15 Hangers: Autos- 1 per 100 hangers (0.64/case) Relics- 1 per 41.8 hangers (1.5/case) Parallels- 3.1 Inserts- 6 Numbered Cards- 1 per 8.6 hangers (7.4/case) Fat Packs: Autos- 1 per 50 packs (2.16/case) Relics- 1 per 41.8 packs (2.6/case) Parallels- 0.5/pack Inserts- 2.25/pack Numbered Cards- 1 per 17.5 packs (6.2/case) Value Boxes: Autos- 1 per 20 boxes (2/case) Relics- 1 per 20.9 boxes (1.9/case) Parallels- 6.05 Inserts- 8.6 Numbered Cards- 1 per 4.5 boxes (4.4/case) Mega Boxes: Autos- 1 per 10 boxes (2/case) Relics- 1 per 6.7 boxes (3/case) Parallels- 11.8 Inserts- 33 Numbered Cards- 1 per 2.1 boxes (9.5/case) Fanatics Value Boxes: Autos- 1 per 20 boxes (2/case) Relics- 1 per 20.9 boxes (1.9/case) Parallels- 9.2 Inserts- 6.1 Numbered Cards- 1 per 4.5 boxes (4.4/case) Black Friday Value Boxes: Autos- 1 per 28.6 boxes (1.4/case) Relics- 1 per 11.95 boxes (3.35/case) Parallels- 9.3 Inserts- 6.2 Numbered Cards- 1 per 4.5 boxes (4.4/case) All-Star Game Megas: Autos- 1 per 10 boxes (2/case) Relics- 1 per 4.2 boxes (4.75/case) Parallels- 10.8 Inserts- 30.2 Numbered Cards- 0.9/box (18/case) Costco/Sam's Club Flagship Collection Boxes: These are still a wild card. Though they are two different SKUs, they appear to be the same as the odds are almost identical. Also, I'm not quite sure exactly what the configuration is going to look like. Last year, there were 15 packs of 14 with an Oversized Card and no bonus packs like we typically see in these Super Boxes. However, the odds are clearly referring to what appears to be 3 bonus packs per box, containing the Flagship Collection & Flagship Collection Chrome cards. If that's the case, I'm not sure what odds will look like on the bulk packs within. So the Hit Rates are solely for the presumably 3 bonus packs in these boxes. Final product should be better than the numbers say. Autos- 1 per 174 boxes Relics- N/A Parallels- 4.6 Inserts- 1 Numbered Cards- 1 per 3.8 boxes Rare Inserts & Variations: For this release, I'm splitting these up into separate metrics. It didn't feel right to combine them as the Variations are not really classified as inserts. Rare Variations include: Golden Mirrors (All 3 tiers), Clear Variations /10, Player Number Variations, & Team Color Border Variations. Rare Inserts include: Comic Court, Quest for the Crown, Soundcheck, Certified Cold, Class of '26, All Kings, Hardwood Stars, and Bounce. Rare Ins/Var Hit Rates by Format: Hobby: Rare Var- 1 per 6.2 boxes (~2/case) Rare Inserts- 1 per 12.1 boxes (1/case) Jumbo: Var- 1 per 4 boxes (1.5/case) Inserts- 1 per 6 boxes (1/case) Hangers: Var- 1 per 112 hangers (1 per 1.75 cases) Inserts- 1 per 288 hangers (1 per 4.5 cases) Fat Packs: Var- 1 per 192.8 packs (1 per 1.8 cases) Inserts- 1 per 942 packs (1 per 8.7 cases) Value Boxes: Var- 1 per 57.8 boxes (1 per 1.45 cases) Inserts- 1 per 270 boxes (1 per 6.75 cases) Megas: Var- 1 per 30.7 boxes (1 per 1.5 cases) Inserts- 1 per 134.4 boxes (1 per 6.7 cases) Fanatics Value: Var- 1 per 41.3 boxes (~1/case) Inserts- 1 per 214.3 boxes (1 per 5.4 cases) Black Friday Value: Var- 1 per 50.5 boxes (1 per 1.25 cases) Inserts- 1 per 272 boxes (1 per 6.8 cases) All-Star Game Megas: Var- 1 per 38 boxes (1 per 1.9 boxes) Inserts- 1 per 132.8 boxes (1 per 6.6 cases) That's enough for tonight. It's extremely late and I still have a sizable amount to get to. I'll continue tomorrow with the riveting Value Metrics comparison among formats and let you know my recommendations and what I'm doing with this product. In the meantime, if you need to see the extensive list of Print Runs, they're already posted on my Substack, but to paid subs only for now. slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2… To be continued... #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsFlagshipNBA

2025/26 Stadium Club Chrome UEFA Early Access Production Numbers, Hit Rates, & Print Runs are now live on my Substack for subscribers. I'll have a full write-up to share here later today, but for those who want an early look at the numbers, they're ready and waiting. slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2…

2026 Allen & Ginter X Deep Dive Quite an action-packed day in Topps land. Even after THREE back-to-back free loan queues (AKA pre-orders), they still somehow found the time to drop a tiny odds sheet for a tiny little product. To me, this one is probably more interesting than it should be. Allen & Ginter X will be a super limited product with not much going on as far as odds, but there will definitely be some sneaky low print runs in here as a result. If you read my content, you probably know how much I love my sneaky low print runs. Welcome to the often overlooked Allen & Ginter X. Part 1: The Basics Allen & Ginter X, not to be confused with Allen & Ginter, is set to launch next Wednesday, November 11. No pre-order period on this one...it's just going straight to release day. Allen & Ginter X could very accurately be called Allen & Ginter Black as it's simply a darker version of the base set. Despite the similarities, there is very little overlap in the checklists. The only cards from regular A&G that you should be able to pull in A&G X are the Inserts & Rookie Design Variations. Everything else is exclusive to the X format. Each box consists of 18 packs of 8 cards. Though we don't yet know pricing, last year's was $180/box at release, which was considerably higher than regular A&G. I would expect nothing different from this year. 2026 A&G dropped at $160/box, so I would expect A&G X to drop around $200/box, possibly slightly higher. Part 2: Production Numbers Total cards in the product: 1,795,200 2025 A&G X- 1,009,152 YOY- +77.9% On the surface, a nearly 80% increase in production over 2025 looks daunting. But the production run on this product, even after an 80% increase is still quite limited. Total Boxes Produced: 12,467 (1,039 cases) 2025 A&G X- 7,008 boxes (584 cases) At ~1k cases, production is similar to that of an average Sapphire release. OK, production is up. Ho hum. So are 98% of other products this year. But we're not even to the fun stuff yet. Here's what those nearly 1.8m cards consist of and how that compares to last year: 2026 Total Inserts- 164,560 2025 Total Inserts- 150,584 YOY- +9.3% Keep in mind, there are no inserts that I would call desirable in A&G X. They are some of the exact same inserts found in regular A&G. And there are none that would be mistaken for "rare". 2026 Total Parallels- 241,156 2025 Total Parallels- 148,503 YOY- +62.4% A vast majority (over 224K) of the parallels in 2026 A&G X are the Mini Blacks that fall 1 per pack. This is no different than last year, except with the extra production and shortened checklist of 300 as opposed to 350, the print run of these more than doubled. Like 2025, there are no Relics in A&G X. But if you know me, you know I like to bury the lead... 2026 Total Autos- 25,059 2025 Total Autos- 9,669 YOY- +159% To me, this is the most fascinating number in the entire breakdown. Total production increased ~80%. That is true. But Total Autos essentially 2.5xed. Let me detail what this means. Topps states 1 auto per box of A&G X. Based on the odds they gave us, there are over 25k Autos in a <12.5k box product. Meaning the average autos per box should be right at 2. Does this mean 2 autos are guaranteed? Not at all. Could odds still be off? Absolutely. But within the odds, there is nothing that stands out as being a mistake. Usually, when that's the case, I can tell, and adjust accordingly. It would not surprise me in the least to see 2-3 autos being pulled regularly from boxes of A&G X. This is nothing new for X. Last year, there were also a considerable number of extra autos in the product. But average autos per box calculated to 1.4, still quite a ways off from 2 per box. With extra autos comes extra auto signers. This year, just like we saw in regular A&G, the baseball auto checklist checks in at an absurd 177 players, up from 148 last year. Non-baseball auto subjects are up slightly to 59 signers from 52 last year. Fortunately, there are a ton of big baseball names, both active and retired. Though I can't co-sign for the impressiveness of the non-baseball signers as that's not really my jam. Part 3: Heat Map Expected Hit Rate Per Box: Autos- ~2 Parallels- 19.3 (Including 18 Mini Black Parallels per Box. Technically, I suppose every single black base card could be considered a parallel since they are alternate versions of regular A&G base. But for our purposes, I'm not counting them as such.) Inserts- 13.2 Numbered cards- 1 per 6.9 boxes (Though this sounds abysmal, keep in mind, aside from Autos, the only numbered cards possible in the product are Mini Reds /5 and Mini Silvers /1. At this point, I'm not sure if Mini Chromes are numbered. Last year, they were unnumbered with a print run of ~10 copies. This year, it's possible they could be /25. If that's the case, then numbered will fall every 2.9 boxes on average. Regardless, if you pull a numbered card, you're hitting something legitimately scarce. There is no /199 nonsense in A&G X. Part 4: A Squatch Record In more important news, we have a new leader in the clubhouse for longest official parallel name that I've ever encountered: MINI NON BASEBALL AUTOGRAPH CARDS FRAMED MINI SIZE SILVER FRAME BLACK GOLD INK PARALLEL Yes, all that is the actual name. What it surpasses, I can't say I remember. But I assure you its name wasn't as long as that monstrosity. Part 5 would normally be a Value Map detailing all the "$ Per" Metrics. Since pricing is still a mystery, I'll have to add that next week when Topps drops the price. However, there is one thing I want to highlight that should indicate how good or bad this release is. And it has to do with my favorite metric- Quality Hits. This includes any parallel or insert /100 or less, any case hit or rarer insert, and any Auto /100 or less. The numbers say you should see ~2.35 Quality Hits Per Box. On average, two of these should be autos...and ALL the autos are scarce. Assuming drop price is $200/box, then the $ Per Quality Hit would be $85.11. Even at $220/box, that comes out to $93.62. This is EXCELLENT for a baseball product. And better than Update Jumbos at drop price, which previously held the best $ Per Quality Hit of any Baseball format this year at $102.90. But there is one caveat. If there happen to be some shenanigans with the odds, and we're not actually seeing boxes commonly produce 2 autos, then this will be a moot point and deflate the product immensely. So it's a bit of a leap of faith at this point. Do we trust the odds...or not? Topps has pleasantly surprised us before. They've also profoundly disappointed us on more than one occasion. My guess? We're good to go. But I've been accused of over-trusting the odds on occasion. So take that with a grain of salt. Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do? First, let me be clear...I'm not a fan of typical Allen & Ginter. I probably made that abundantly clear in my A&G breakdown, but it bears repeating here. Not to alienate any followers, because I know there are some A&G purists out there who embrace all the oddities. They are just not for me. I like cards of things I like. I don't need cards of instruments and how to say hello in 50 languages. But it's fine if you do. Now, I'm not a complete curmudgeon. A&G has had some wickedly cool stuff and wild offerings over the years. From Dinosaur Fossils, DNA & teeth, to 1/1 Hair Relics, Topps has done things with A&G that you won't find in any other set. And I applaud them for it. I think the Daguerrotype Autos are phenomenal and would love to have one. But unfortunately, none of that wicked cool stuff is in here. But I'm still buying at drop and here's why: 1) Despite the production increase, it's still very limited. 2) Black cards are way cooler than white. 3) Sneaky low print runs. But most of all, I really hope these odds hold up. Because 2 Autos on average in a box that only claims one is about all it takes for me to recommend a product. Assuming it starts at ~$200, I think there's an excellent chance this product goes up a fair amount. 2025 Ginter X currently sits at $300/box at Big Bully resellers. And this year is better than last and should be at least that much, making it a safe stash play, not to mention a pretty fun rip. @Topps, Let's try to make a habit of this under-promise and over-deliver thing. It's much more becoming than some of the shenanigans you've been up to lately. Part 7: Print Runs Base A&G X Production: ~4,550 ea Unnumbered Parallels: Ginter X Chrome Parallel- ~125 ea Mini Black Parallel- ~750 ea Mini Ginter X Chrome- ~25 ea Unnumbered Inserts: These are also in the regular A&G release, so first I'll list how many additional copies are added by A&G X, then how many total copies of each parallel there are. 50 Ways to Say Hello (50 card CL)- ~320 -----> Total ~11,695 ea Musical Methods (20 card CL)- ~320 ------> Total ~11,695 ea N34 (50 card CL)- ~320 ------> Total ~11,695 ea N43 (20 card CL)- ~2,245 -----> Total ~94,125 ea Rookie Design Variations (20 card CL)- ~320 ----> Total ~11,695 ea Wicked Power (30 card CL)- ~2,495 ----> Total ~95,500 ea Autos: Please note: I fully believe every auto will be numbered. However, I also believe the serial numbers will vary, even among the same parallel. What I am listing will be the average print run of each parallel. So, when you see a Caglianone /15, when I have the PR listed at ~32, that is why. These are not precise, but should give you an idea as to general scarcity of each variation. Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Parallel (177 card CL)- ~55 ea Baseball Mini Black Frame Black Parallel- ~32 ea Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Gold Ink- ~10 ea Non-Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Parallel (59 card CL)- ~85 ea Non-Baseball Mini Black Frame Black Parallel- ~45 ea Non-Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Gold Ink- ~10 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026AllenGinterX