Jim Welsh

Semi's & AI related stocks Crowded trade Great earnings & outlook Questions about investment returns after trillions spent Election impact Datacenters Rush to sell 11-5 Has everyone sold? SMH down -21% in 5 days Not likely - institutions didn't have time First bounce is sold

Day after election Ilya and I coverd a lot of ground Expected bounce in stocks to reverse lower Semiconductor SMH drop to 475 - 452 Next day market smashed SMH hit 447 Outlook for - Gold Yields Dollar youtube.com/watch?v=ieFjqIOV…

Check out my latest article: Surprised by the decline in Semiconductors? Read my analysis of SMH since June 22, 2026 linkedin.com/pulse/surprised… via @LinkedIn

Warsh AI They're talking about raising rates, but it's not going to have any effect on AI I was skeptical of that view Credit spreads for certain assets widened Do interest rates matter? I believe they do I don't believe that they're somehow divorced from the rest of the economy

Questions about Democrats support for data center construction will likely mean less building and more regulation. That could dampen AI enthusiasm further since demand for Semiconductor chips would soften

The Iran war isn’t going to end soon and may escalate I simply don’t see how a ‘deal’ to end the war will allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz And continue to terrorize the Middle East with its ballistic missiles and support for terrorist groups Oil rebound coming

Initial reaction to the election results brought a wave of selling Knee jerk reaction to buy also seems an overreaction In coming days, a more sober reflection will take hold Divided government = no progress in lowering the 6% annual budget deficit, debt will soon exceed $41T

What AI models can't do Most businesses garner loyalty from relationships that are based on trust, fairness, and sound judgement. AI is a great tool that will improve over time, but will it ever reach the stage of a hand shake? I’m skeptical.

Love baseball Lived in Milwaukee in 1982 Brewers lost to Cardinals in 7 My wife is a cheesehead Brewers win because they do all the little things right So cool to watch a Team focused on execution, rather than home runs Payroll $145 million

10-26 WTR Chairman Warsh won’t answer questions implying Forward Guidance Why his Sept press conference only lasted 30 minutes vs 45 - 60 min for Chair Powell Most interesting aspect on October 28 Will he set a new low for the press conference time? He did 28 min vs 30

Wall Street, investors, and academia are upset with receiving less Forward Guidance from Chairman Warsh. Time to grow up and learn to think without the Fed holding your hand. Check out my latest article: World With Less Forward Guidance linkedin.com/pulse/world-les… via @LinkedIn

Oct 11 post - Did a bell just ring for Treasury Bonds? October 10 cover The Economist “Will bonds blow up?” Cover suggested yields were topping 10 yr yield now down .4% Thank you! Economist - useful idiots

In June 2021 I warned the correlation between bonds and stocks would disconnect in the next bear market in stocks, which developed in 2022 It did Check out my latest article: Correlation between Bonds and Stocks Isn’t Static linkedin.com/pulse/correlati… via @LinkedIn

On October 19, David Lin and I had a wide ranging conversation - What's guiding monetary policy? - What can we expect from Semiconductors? - Why has the broad market been so weak? - Outlook for Treasury yields - Why Contrary Opinion is powerful youtube.com/watch?v=m9GxsKUh…

1987 Fed hike in Sept Oct 6 Bundesbank hikes, contrary to promise to James Baker S&P down -2.7% I went 100% cash Bundesbank move big deal Oct 16 S&P down -5.% Oct 19 - Major averages down more than -20% 2026 Oct 16 Tech breaking down, Broad market weak Monday is Oct 19 😟

How a market respond to news is more important than the news Bad CPI, yields up, and then declined on the day When a market doesn't respond rationally (bad CPI), a trend revesal is more likely Indicates bond market is sold out

Technical analysis suggests that Treasuery yields are topping The Economist is warning that Treasury bonds might blow up As a Contrarian, I view it as more evidence that a reversal is at hand Article: Treasury Market Contrary Opinion Signal linkedin.com/pulse/treasury-… via @LinkedIn

10-12 WTR Semiconductors expected to rally to 634 Oct 6, SMH traded up to 639.47 Oct 12 closed at 590.99 As noted last week, “A close below 591 would be bearish” Oct 13 closed at 588 < 591 Oct 14 566 Longer term, the expectation is that SMH will trade below 503.68.

10-12 WTR Downside risk outweighs the upside potential significantly S&P 500 rallied to a higher high Advance-Decline Line is light years away from confirming Negative Divergence is warning that the S&P 500 and broad market are vulnerable to a decline of -7% to -10%, or worse

Did a bell just ring for Treasury Bonds? After March 2020, 30-year Treasury bond has plunged -47.3% October 10 cover The Economist “Will bonds blow up?” Markets are always wrong at tops and bottoms Contrary Opinion is superior The Economist - useful idiot!!