@JoeNC05

Former Republican, Politically Homeless, Never Trump, Never Vance, Haley Voter, Election and Redistricting Expert. 🇺🇦🇮🇱

Joined December 2020
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According to State Navigate: Gov Margin Projection: Spanberger+14.0 My Prediction: Spanberger+14 HoD: 64-36 D My Prediction: 64-36 D Unless AC Cordoza pulls off a miracle I will have 100/100 HoD races correct and be within 0.1% of the gov margin. Please clap.
Joe@JoeNC053 Nov 2025
FINAL 2025 PREDICTIONS: VA Gov: Safe D🟦 Spanberger+14 VA LT Gov: Safe D🟦 Hashmi+11.5 VA AG: Leans D🟦 Jones+2 NJ Gov: Likely D🟦 Sherrill+7 VA HoD: Safe D🟦 64-36 D NJ GA: Safe D 🟦 53-27 D NYC Mayor: Safe Mamdani🟦 Mamdani 50% Cuomo 30% Sliwa 20% In short, I expect a blue wave
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Are the pollsters actively trying to avoid being graded for pollster ratings?
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker202410h
Quinnipiac is done polling this cycle, source tells @PollTracker2024
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One thing I am 100% sure about is that nobody's mind will be changed and everyone will use the results to reinforce their pre-existing beliefs
Joe@JoeNC0514h
El sayed is really such an albatross.
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I would 100% vote for Mike Rogers if I lived in Michigan. I just dont think El-Sayed will underperform the state lean by double digits. Its Lean D.
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At the end of the day, basically every polling average of the well polled states is within a few points of generic ballot + fundamentals + some reasonable estimation of candidate quality. Really remarkable convergence and stability in this election.
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El sayed is really such an albatross.
Political Polls
@Politics_Polls15h
Michigan Senate: 🔵 El-Sayed 48% (+2) 🔴 Rogers 46% @YouGovAmerica/@michiganstateu, 1,000 LV, 10/2-19 ippsr.msu.edu/sites/default/…
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I said months ago that Ryan Mackenzie was in worse shape than Perry. 2 polls showing that now (though wide MoE on house polls). Would expect both to be clear losers in the end.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker202423h
RedBox poll | 10/20-10/23 LV US House 2026 | Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district (Trump +5 | 2024) 🟦Janelle Stelson 47.6% 🟥Scott Perry 45.2% (incumbent) —— (PA-10 surveyed) —— Pennsylvania Governor 2026 🟦Josh Shapiro 50.7% (incumbent) 🟥Stacy Garrity 38.4%
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Pointing out that the current president is corrupt and out of control is much more important than some people not being able to afford the cheesecake factory. I say this as someone with no love for Obama.
Evan Barker
@evanwchOct 24
Does Obama not understand that to most Americans the Cheesecake Factory is a very nice and fancy restaurant?
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I'm starting to consider the fact that maybe the senate really isn't that biased against democrats. They seem to have an asymmetrically higher floor and we don't elect all 100 seats at once in a presidential year where a GOP nominee can easily carry 60 on a good night
Drew Savicki
@DrewSavOct 24
Says a lot about how different the parties are that Dems are at least competitive in double digit Trump states but Republicans are not/have not been competitive in double digit Biden/Harris states.
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you could also argue D candidate quality advantage is a persistent feature too, though I feel that falls outside the scope. But a potentially big GOP win in a prez year is necessarily followed by a backlash year where at least you'd expect them to lose the normal swing states
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I didn't think it would be that controversial, but recreating the herculean effort to MAYBE flip the senate seats in Ohio and Iowa is not happening in a presidential year unless it's a huge blowout comparable to the national polling this year
Joe@JoeNC05Oct 24
Since we have a painful 10 days of waiting left, here's where the 2028 presidential election starts.
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Since we have a painful 10 days of waiting left, here's where the 2028 presidential election starts.
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I think the prediction markets reaction to early voting is basically correct. We are seeing a D turnout advantage as expected, so this reduces the probability of Rs overperforming their polls due to turnout. It would very likely have to be persuasion at this point.
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Im seeing a lot more signs for downballot dems this week, including hinojosa. Before it was mostly just talarico signs
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This is excluding park cities, Morgan Meyer had a lot of signs there as its his base
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I am having claude build me my own election results site. AI is so cool
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Please donate to DRA, it's more than worth it for the service they provide
Dave's Redistricting@davesredistOct 19
Hi everyone. We need to raise $75,000 to keep DRA available & free for all; & with accurate up-to-date election data from our partner @redistdatahub. For details please check out davesredistricting.org or our campaign at donate.mazloweb.com/donate/R…. Thank you!
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People have a warped sense of the partisanship of Texas. It's a highly volatile state with tons of swing voters. Talarico could win without getting a single vote from 3x Trump voters because of the turnover since 2016. And the ~R+10 lean is wiped out by the GCB anyway.
CA ET Nerd
@earlyvotedataOct 22
Oh no. No no no no no no! NOT THE BOUZY CURSE!!!
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Rémy Numa@remynumaOct 22
🦊🚨 NEW Fox News Poll MAINE SENATE Jackson (D) - 49% Collins (R) - 49% Oct 16-20, ME LV ±2.5 MAINE GOVERNOR Pingree (D) - 49% Charles (R) - 39% Bennett (I) - 9% Oct 16-20, ME LV ±2.5
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She's the only smart one in the red state competitive races. She might be the only one to win too
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 22
#IowaSenate Ashley Hinson calls on Vivek Ramaswamy to take down Acton ad in interview with ABC News. She also called JD Vance's comments "ridiculous" when he defended the ad.
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Doubt it
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 22
Emerson poll | 10/19-10/20 LV US Senate South Dakota 2026 🟥Mike Rounds 50% (incumbent) ⬜️Brian Bengs 42% keloland.com/keloland-com-or…

KELOLAND Poll: Rounds leads Bengs at 8%, Trump approval down

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — Eight points separate Independent candidate Brian Bengs and incumbent Republican Mike Rounds for one of South Dakota’s U.S. Senate seats, according to a new p…

keloland.com
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