S&T Grad Analyst @ BB based in HK 🇭🇰
Hong Kong
Joined March 2016
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Jane / SIG be like: you just know this now?
Binance is arguably the world's largest crypto exchange.
Feb 2026: Polymarket lists a small 5-minute Bitcoin contract. Since then, Binance order flow spikes in the final seconds before settlement; prices revert soon after.
New paper with David Dai and Shihao Yu ( @ShihaoY ): Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…)🧵
The finding, up front:
Traders push Bitcoin's price in the final seconds to decide the contract. That push makes the price less informative, yet Bitcoin's market more liquid. Market makers are largely insulated; ordinary traders lose $7.6M in two months.
John Street retweeted
In investing, a lot of information you can acquire via the internet and Claude tokenmaxxing.
But there is an entirely different world which you can only tap into through conferences and in-person conversations.
This post is the result of spending a full week in Taipei staring at racks and talking to people! We cover
1. Immersion Cooling
2. Fuel Cells
3. Hiwin (Robotics Supplier)
4. DRAM
5. Kyber Racks
6. Astera Labs
7. Nvidia RTX Spark (Laptops)
8. MediaTek MicroLED
9. Scale-Out CPO
10. Scale-Up CPO
And some implications for CPO players like $LITE.
What a second order effect lol - but a good thought
JPM: Another beneficiary of the AI cycle is European luxury stocks
The report argues that the AI supercycle has driven a surge in HBM and memory demand, sharply improving earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. This, in turn, has supported equity-market strength, with the KOSPI up 91% year-to-date, bolstering consumer sentiment and high-end consumption.
While Korean households’ allocation to equities, bonds, and funds is only around 4%, lower than in the U.S. or Western Europe, the magnitude of the market rally means the wealth effect is still meaningful. JPM also estimates that the after-tax bonus pools at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix alone could reach roughly $25 billion in 2026 and more than $35 billion in 2027.
JPM expects this wealth effect to be particularly concentrated among younger male consumers. Given that roughly two-thirds of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix employees are male, the categories most likely to benefit first are luxury cars, watches, high-end ready-to-wear, and outerwear. Leather goods and jewelry, which are more female-oriented categories, could also benefit, but more through gifting demand than direct consumption.
John Street retweeted
I wasn’t planning to share this, but it’s such a high-quality explanation of CPO that I have to.
Just watch it. You’ll regret it if you don’t.
youtu.be/wiH6d4m9o4o?si=hwEO…
John Street retweeted
“Wow, literally every single investment bank is involved in the SpaceX IPO”
Jefferies:
John Street retweeted
Three years ago today, on May 20th, 2023, I started compiling CitriniResearch’s first thematic primer “Artificial Intelligence: Global Equity Beneficiaries”.
The thesis was simple - if a bit controversial back then - AI compute demand would go beyond lifting just Nvidia, the massive scaling of data center infrastructure would mean that valuations in most of the semiconductor sector (at the time reflecting COVID supply gluts & recession fears) were far too low.
When I wrote this, SMH was still in a 30% drawdown from its 2021 highs. Because it would be far too difficult to predict what AI looked like in 5 years, I decided the best risk reward was in the beneficiaries of AI Capex spending - Phase 1, or the “global data center hyperscaling”, was the bottleneck for everything else.
The best risk reward was indeed in the data center infrastructure, and I got most of that right (as expected, the further in the future predictions were shakier). It makes me extremely proud to go back and read this piece - the mark of truly good work is that it is enduring. A subscriber could have gone and re-read this at any point in the past three years and found solid ideas.
It’s free to go back and read it, keep in mind this was published in May 2023.
It calls for outperformance in GPUs, Memory, Optical Interconnects, Semicap, Power Density, Cooling, Memory Testing and more. All 1-2 years before most of the trades became consensus. Nearly everything that we said would outperform in the first phase of the AI trade has done so, to a massive degree.
Some of the best performers out of the names that were highlighted in this piece:
Applied Optoelectronics +6850%
SK Hynix +1800%
Vertiv +1450%
Hanmi Semi +1435%
CRDO +1160%
My original goal was to publish just three thematic primers on the trends I thought would define the decade: AI, peptides and government spending.
However, those themes required more coverage. The AI trade evolved, the fiscal trade became more important than ever. Three years later, I’ve parlayed the early success of our work to build CitriniResearch and its team of analysts to produce the kind of equity research I would want to read.
citriniresearch.com/p/artifi…
John Street retweeted
My friend GSR wrote a really good piece. He found a new bottleneck.
The market is overly focused on indium prices, but the more structural bottleneck in the InP supply chain is qualified high-purity phosphorus.
NCI and Rasa are key Japanese suppliers of red phosphorus for InP feedstock, or 6N/7N high-purity red phosphorus. Once again, obscure Japanese companies I had never heard of are controlling the bottleneck lol.
This material is not just a simple commodity input. It is a process-sensitive material directly tied to crystal growth yield and qualification.
John Street retweeted
Renowned international finance scholar Maurice Obstfeld presents a clear and powerful case for why the reserve currency status of the US dollar isn’t the reason why the US has run a persistent currency account deficit. Prof. Obstfeld literally wrote the textbook on the topic.
Totally agree with this excellent article by Maury Obstfeld: "Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar." Not so long ago I tweeted "The view that the dollar’s reserve currency status is responsible for its deficits is a terribly flawed view." Yet, like a zombie, this view will not die even if, as Maury says "This notion is dead wrong." piie.com/blogs/realtime-econ…
.@LinkedInHelp @LinkedIn why tf you so godamn slow these days? both on browser and mobile
John Street retweeted
The divergence between the performance of China’s economy and its stock market has been a topic for decades. This may finally explain it. ft.com/content/b43184b1-5b14…
John Street retweeted
China's new 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030 has been officially published.
I've put together a public database of China's Five-Year Plans as well as other key official documents, particularly related to science & tech and industrial policy: chinadocs.org/
John Street retweeted
1/8
Bloomberg: "China will issue 300 billion yuan of special sovereign bonds to recapitalize some of its largest banks, marking an expansion of Beijing’s efforts to fortify the nation’s financial system against a cooling economy and market volatility."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
John Street retweeted
My conversation with John Arnold (@johnarnold).
Few people I've spoken with have as wide a view of the global system as John.
He was one of the most successful energy traders of all time, and after stepping away from markets he built a foundation devoted to solving America's most critical systemic problems in a principled way.
John's recent trip to China was the catalyst for this conversation, and I feel lucky we all get to learn from him.
We discuss:
- His trip to China and what it taught him about robotics, AI, and EVs
- What it takes to be the best (and what it costs)
- Building the best seat in the market
- The state of energy markets today
- NIMBYism as the impediment to progress
- What he thinks about the wave of nuclear startups
- Fixing America's broken systems: healthcare, criminal justice, education, and journalism
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 intro
0:45 China’s Rapid Transformation
3:53 Lessons from the Chinese EV Market
6:12 Robotics
11:22 The Discipline of an Elite Trader
15:42 Leveraging Scale and Proprietary Data
17:36 Lessons from the Baseball Cards
21:15 Trading Natural Gas and Market Dynamics
25:34 Innovation in the Modern Energy Sector
27:02 High-Level Goals of the U.S. Energy System
32:59 Overcoming NIMBYism
36:10 The Challenges of U.S. Transmission Lines
37:55 The Future of Nuclear, Fusion, and SMRs
44:00 The Economics of Solar and Battery Storage
48:28 Data Center Demand
50:28 Housing Reform
53:32 Rethinking the Role of Philanthropic Foundations
57:05 Improving the Criminal Justice System
1:01:58 Privacy and Security
1:05:03 Education and Life Outcomes
1:06:41 The Promise and Pitfalls of EdTech and AI
1:09:12 Identifying Market Failures in Healthcare
1:12:10 The Role of Regulation Across Different Systems
1:14:06 Journalism as the Fourth Estate
1:16:41 The Kindness of Hard Truths
Banger piece - surprised zerohedge can also analyse China this well 👍
China Is Scrambling zerohedge.com/geopolitical/c…
