@Johnnybitgood

Researching bitcoin and producing findings on https://xitter.cf/t.co/erEtvJ2t92 Building tools for bitcoin related financial planning on https://xitter.cf/t.co/idCGssfNna

 International waters.
btcpowerlaw.nl
Joined March 2025
  • Tweets2.2K
  • Following590
  • Followers502
295Media
Different cycles compared with the power law as a measuring stick.
2
2
36
3,840
If my Bitcoin has to outlast me, I take a smaller withdrawal. In the Observatory's study, over 100 years with spending rising 7% a year, the 99%-reliable withdrawal from 1 BTC started in a bear fell to $16k a year. Longer horizon, smaller draw.
Card: a plan that outlasts me. $16k a year from 1 BTC over 100 years.

ALT Card: a plan that outlasts me. $16k a year from 1 BTC over 100 years.

2
67
Bitcoin's floor is $68,094 today. Growth per 1 BTC: Next day: +$60, to $68,154 Next week: +$418, to $68,512 Next month: +$1,832, to $69,926 Next year: +$24,805, to $92,899 Next decade: +$790,223, to $858,317 Floor is 0.432 x the Santostasi trend. Model, not a promise.
Card: Bitcoin's floor today is $68,094. Growth per 1 BTC: next day +$60, next week +$418, next month +$1,832, next year +$24,805, next decade +$790,223. Floor is 0.432 x the Santostasi trend (model, not a promise).

ALT Card: Bitcoin's floor today is $68,094. Growth per 1 BTC: next day +$60, next week +$418, next month +$1,832, next year +$24,805, next decade +$790,223. Floor is 0.432 x the Santostasi trend (model, not a promise).

4
161
Smaller loans keep your liquidation price further below the floor. That's the whole point.
1
22
The test used daily closes and liquidation at 80% LTV, and the floor isn't guaranteed. Borrowing has real risk. Borrow small. btcpowerlaw.nl/research/1-6x…

When Is a Bitcoin-Backed Loan Safe?

Zero failures. 1,982 safe-zone entries. 58.6% failure rate outside zone. Closest call: 7.9% margin. Verified across 13 years of data.

btcpowerlaw.nl
20
The Observatory's 1.6x rule ties it to the floor. At 40% loan-to-value, you can start a loan with price up to 2.00x the floor. At 50%, up to 1.60x. At 60%, only 1.33x.
1
13
Say a bear market hits, you need $8,000 to live on, and you'd rather borrow against your coins than sell them cheap. How big a loan?
Three tiles: 40% LTV start up to 2.00x the floor (highlighted), 50% up to 1.60x, 60% up to 1.33x.

ALT Three tiles: 40% LTV start up to 2.00x the floor (highlighted), 50% up to 1.60x, 60% up to 1.33x.

1
48
It isn't smooth. Some years the low fell. And growth from one cycle bottom to the next has been slowing.
1
20
History, not a forecast. Keep buying, and let the worst price do the slow work.
13
Say you buy $50 of Bitcoin every week and the only price you care about is the worst one you pay each year.
Card: Bitcoin's worst price keeps rising. 34.3% a year, trailing 5-year average growth of the yearly low.

ALT Card: Bitcoin's worst price keeps rising. 34.3% a year, trailing 5-year average growth of the yearly low.

1
58
Bitcoin's yearly low has grown at a trailing 5-year average of 34.3%. No power law needed. Just the lowest price in each year.
1
18
If you buy 1 bitcoin today at 80K you can be pissed off that it’s only worth 460K 8 years from now. Minimum.
Sminston With 👁
@sminston_withOct 26
My good friend Monte Carlo and I ran Bitcoin out to 2034. 5,000 times 🎲 Not one run ended below today's $80K. The median finish: $1.48M 🚀 - - - Each line on the chart is one run, and the pink curve on the right shows the final distribution in 2034. Even the bottom 5% finish around $464K, almost 6x from here. He's very optimistic, and honestly so am I 😄
1
2
506
Say you need $3,000 a month in retirement and must choose: sell a fixed dollar amount each month, or a fixed slice of your coins.
Bar chart: fixed dollars vs a fixed slice of coins. The fixed slice paid a median +160% more income.

ALT Bar chart: fixed dollars vs a fixed slice of coins. The fixed slice paid a median +160% more income.

1
78
more replies
Fixed dollars force you to sell more coins when price is low. A fixed slice sells the same coins in a crash as in a boom. Part of the gap is fixed-dollar stacks running out early.
1
29
The trade-off: income swings month to month, and the fixed slice spends the whole stack over 4 years, by design. satsplanner.com/retire/
13
At my budget, I don't hold cash back for dips. At $1,000 a month, none of the Observatory's smarter strategies showed a statistically solid edge over plain DCA. One's range ran from -60% to +219%. Idle cash costs more than bad entries.
Card: $1,000 a month, no edge worth waiting for. One strategy's range vs plain DCA ran from -60% to +219%.

ALT Card: $1,000 a month, no edge worth waiting for. One strategy's range vs plain DCA ran from -60% to +219%.

53
Bitcoin's floor is $68,037 today. Growth per 1 BTC: Next day: +$60, to $68,096 Next week: +$417, to $68,454 Next month: +$1,830, to $69,867 Next year: +$24,788, to $92,825 Next decade: +$789,815, to $857,852 Floor is 0.432 x the Santostasi trend. Model, not a promise.
Card: Bitcoin's floor today is $68,037. Growth per 1 BTC: next day +$60, next week +$417, next month +$1,830, next year +$24,788, next decade +$789,815. Floor is 0.432 x the Santostasi trend (model, not a promise).

ALT Card: Bitcoin's floor today is $68,037. Growth per 1 BTC: next day +$60, next week +$417, next month +$1,830, next year +$24,788, next decade +$789,815. Floor is 0.432 x the Santostasi trend (model, not a promise).

1
3
180
I don't need the floor to be exactly right. The Observatory's floor page says that even if the floor sits 20% lower than measured, the growth rate is what matters for long-term planning. So I size my plan as if it were 20% lower. If it isn't, I'm ahead. btcpowerlaw.nl/floor/
Chart: a rising floor line and a dashed line 20% lower. I plan on a lower floor.

ALT Chart: a rising floor line and a dashed line 20% lower. I plan on a lower floor.

1
58
Say you put $25 a week into Bitcoin and your first goal is 0.01 BTC.
Card: your first 0.01 BTC. 12.75M addresses hold at least 0.01 BTC, up 4%.

ALT Card: your first 0.01 BTC. 12.75M addresses hold at least 0.01 BTC, up 4%.

1
65
more replies
Addresses aren't people. One person can hold many, and exchanges pool coins. But the count of small stacks is still growing.
1
30
Pick a milestone you can hit. Then pick the next one.
15
Load more