@Bloomberg | Forever recovering hill staffer & campaign flack | Views are mine

New York, NY
Joined July 2011
A Democratic sweep of Congress may not change US foreign policy all that much. Bloomberg Geoeconomics’ @geoeconjennie & @ChrisJKennedy find lawmakers could slow Trump through funding, confirmations and oversight, but have few ways to fundamentally reshape his agenda.
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Even blocking Trump nominees may only go so far. More than 47% of US ambassador posts are already vacant, suggesting the administration doesn’t view filling every Senate-confirmed role as essential to advancing its agenda. Full analysis on @TheTerminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/st…
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Companies aren’t just talking about geopolitical risk anymore, with 77% of 3,500 business leaders and insurance buyers across seven major markets surveyed by @Zurich saying rising tensions will push supply chain or supplier changes over the next year. cyberservices.beazley.com/en…
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Even if Netanyahu loses Israel may not look all that different in how it deals with the wider region. Bloomberg Geoeconomics’ @DEsfandiary says Netanyahu’s camp and his main opponents are much more divided over domestic issues than over security and foreign policy.
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New from Bloomberg: Starlink’s Ukraine restrictions are giving Europe another reason to move faster on tech independence, from accelerating its own satellite network to backing European alternatives to US defense contractors. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Labour politicians in the UK are now testing messages on AI-generated voters. Faster and far cheaper than traditional focus groups, but @pewresearch found synthetic “twins” were off from real people by 12 points on average. Scoop from @JacobReid02 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Hitting Iran again may be the easy part. Ending the war is much harder. Bloomberg Geoeconomics' @becca_wasser maps how even successful strikes may not last, with Iran able to rebuild and broader escalation raising risks to Gulf energy & infrastructure. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/st…
President Trump tonight tells me the U.S. is not negotiating with Iran and something will happen “fairly soon.” @NewsNation
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United CEO Scott Kirby is doubling down on a national wealth tax, saying it’s unfair that the richest Americans can watch their fortunes grow while much of that wealth growth goes untaxed. The top 1% hold roughly a third of U.S. wealth.
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A useful reality check on the US Russia diesel deal. Bloomberg Economics estimates more Russian supply would trim only about $4 to $5 from the roughly $100 increase in global diesel prices since the Iran war began.
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Interesting counterpoint to the pullback from ESG branding. Blackstone just raised $8.7B for an energy transition fund, 55% more than its last one. The label may be less prominent, but capital is still flowing to the underlying strategy. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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15 days until the US midterms - an election that could prove historic. Join us for a briefing on the odds of a blue wave, the implications for domestic and foreign policy, and the potential changes to the regulatory environment for US businesses. Starring @nathandeanDC, @ChrisJKennedy, @dflakoll, @NYCStein, and @lyndsayhoward. Wednesday, Oct 28 at 10 am ET No @TheTerminal subscription required Details and registration here: events.bloombergevents.com/e… Chart credit: @NicoleGorton and @ChrisJKennedy
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France’s 10-year yield now at 5% as investors weigh a ratings review, an unresolved 2027 budget, election uncertainty and unrest that’s weighing on growth. Rising US and German yields could push borrowing costs even higher.
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In Baltimore, gun violence and vacant housing have reached their lowest levels in decades. It’s a reminder of what cities can accomplish with bold ideas, strong partnerships and an unwavering focus on results. I was glad to welcome @MayorBMScott the #BloombergAmericanHealthSummit26 to discuss the progress Baltimore has made and the work still ahead.
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WSJ: “Some U.S. officials say that Musk acted unilaterally and that Trump didn’t specifically order any retribution against Ukraine. But a person familiar with the situation said Musk talked to multiple senior administration officials, including with Trump, before imposing the new speed cap, which Ukrainian officials said had allowed Russian missiles to evade their defenses.”
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Hyperscaler CDS premiums are climbing, with @Meta, @Google, @Google, @amazon and @Microsoft all at their highest levels since inception. A notable shift in how markets are viewing the financial risk around even the biggest names in tech.
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Polling 2 weeks out from the midterms: ~71% now call gas unaffordable, up from 28% in February, per @ABC/@wapo/@Ipsos ~8 in 10 registered voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, per @APNORC ~58% say Trump’s policies are hurting the country, per @NBCNews
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The fight for the Senate is heating up in farm country. Diesel is still around $6/gallon in Kansas during harvest, with tariffs adding another squeeze. Bloomberg Geoeconomics lead @ChrisJKennedy looks at how those pressures are playing into Senate races. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/st…
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