Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes) header
Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes) profile picture

Author. Coder. CTO. θηριομάχης. Building: https://xitter.gq/t.co/otXT4Wy6WR. Writing: https://xitter.gq/t.co/dBPBtyCIHw.

Austin, TX
Joined July 2008
Photo by Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes)Photo by Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes)Photo by Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes)Photo by Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes)Photo by Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes)Photo by Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes)Photo by Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes)Photo by Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes)Photo by Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes)Photo by Jon Stokes (@jon_stokes)
All the blackpilling on my TL has me worried some of you will turn into preppers, so here's a get-it-over-with list by a former hardcore prepper that'll let you scratch that itch then move on with your life.
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Jon Stokes retweeted
Great piece by Henry Farrell. "So why do I think that the machine god approach, far from being an “epistemic bare minimum,” is a pernicious brain-devourer? The answer is that the metaphor shrinks rather than expands your horizons of the possible, forcing you to focus on the single overwhelming question of what Machine Jesus is going to do as soon as he descends from that gleaming cloud. Is he going to usher in paradise on earth? Or is he actually a shoggoth in a Jesus-mask, condemning us to enslavement or destruction? Once you have accepted that Machine Jesus is in the process of descending, all questions besides determining his intentions for humanity seem irrelevant." programmablemutter.com/p/mac… I'm writing my own piece on how a lot of metaphors and analogies are skewing the discourse, should hoepfully be out soon!
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Jon Stokes retweeted
I love this investment-normalized capabilities growth plot for how it moves to ground AI progress in the capital markets. The next move to make (this isn't a criticism of Seb/Michael but the discourse as a whole) is to stop taking roll-ups of offline evals as the true objects of progress and risk! AI has been around long enough that the real world is the object, and the real metrics are AI's causal impacts on labor productivity, GDP growth, self-reported happiness. For risk, real cyber damages, real bio near-misses due to AI, real misalignment damages, etc, are the object. Offline evals are good but we need to move to a culture in which -- when they are equated to 'capabilities' -- they are assessed for their predictive power relative to these outcomes
Updated version!
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Jon Stokes retweeted
POV you’re running a cult
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I am a professor at the @UofCalifornia. I am appalled by the conduct of one of its Regents, Scott Galloway, appointed in August by Governor Newsom. @profgalloway is one of only 26 voting Regents entrusted with governing a university system serving hundreds of thousands of students & employing tens of thousands of faculty & staff. Twice, first on a live Pivot episode featuring Hillary Clinton & on Prof G with Fareed Zakaria, Galloway called Elon Musk a “traitor to the West.” He invoked Julius & Ethel Rosenberg, who were executed for espionage, and declared that Musk should be held to the same standards. He didn’t explicitly demand Musk’s execution. But invoking the deaths of two convicted spies while calling an American citizen a traitor makes the implication hard to miss. Musk has not been convicted of treason. Indeed, “treason against the West” isn’t even an actual crime. Now imagine UCLA alumnus @BenShapiro, appointed a UC Regent, saying the same about George Soros. Would the Governor defend his right to serve? Would Regent leadership shrug and call it provocative commentary? Or would there be demands for resignation? But there’s something worse here than another of Scott’s trademark podcast rants. He sits on the Regents’ Academic & Student Affairs Committee. The committee’s charter says it oversees student conduct, faculty conduct, academic personnel, & campus climate, among other responsibilities. This is not some honorary title. The Board sets university policy, controls institutional budgets, & appoints senior university leadership. You can unsubscribe from a podcast. A student who finds Scott’s comments morally repugnant can’t unsub from the Regents. UC bylaws require Regents to serve the public trust with a “high degree of ethics and candor,” including as private citizens. Professors owe students intellectual integrity. Regents bear an even greater duty: they govern institutions that teach it. Yet a Regent serving on the committee responsible for student & faculty conduct invokes executions while labeling a fellow citizen a traitor. What does that say to our students? That intellectual restraint is expected of the governed but optional for those who govern? That standards of conduct depend on whether the target of your rhetoric is politically fashionable to despise, as long as the audience applauds? This isn’t about defending @ElonMusk. He needs no defense from me. Nor is it about silencing Scott. As if that were possible. He’s free to express his opinions, however reckless they may be. But freedom of speech is not freedom from accountability, and holding a university office of public trust is not an entitlement. There is an enormous moral chasm between exercising your right to speak recklessly and demonstrating the judgment required of one of the 26 people who govern our great public university. The UC Board of Regents isnt a podcast sponsors can boycott. It’s a public trust. One final irony. At @NYUStern, Galloway teaches Brand Strategy, including a session on crisis management. His own prescription for leadership in a crisis is unequivocal: acknowledge the problem, have leadership take responsibility, and “overcorrect.” He’s praised the departure of corporate leaders as evidence of effective crisis management. Now Galloway himself sits on the UC Board of Regents. Will he hold himself to the standards he teaches, or does accountability apply only to other people’s institutions? Professor lecture thyself! I believe Scott Galloway should seriously consider whether his continued service on the Board of Regents is consistent with the ethical standards and responsibilities of that office, or whether he should resign. I welcome the opportunity to discuss these issues with Galloway directly, including what standards we should expect of those entrusted with governing the world’s best university. Scott, you have an open invitation to join me on @Into_Impossible for an honest conversation.
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What I will say about this is, I am sure it seemed very witty and charming in whatever its original context, but putting it in the newspaper was probably a mistake
The first novel I ever loved was the survival classic Hatchet, but recently I’ve learned that a *lot* of women despise this book, and see it is as something they were forced to read in school to entice the idiot illiterate boys in their English class. I dove into that tension!
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This should have been done up front. It's going to be much tougher now.
NEW: The AI industry is scrambling to repackage a $10 trillion infrastructure buildout to appease a hostile electorate, that includes: -No more non disclosure agreements -Money for schools and cities -Environmental concessions -Labor protections -Codified obligations over voluntary frameworks -Job training programs The bottom line: The race is on to see whether Democrats can translate election momentum into binding restrictions or the industry tries to head off tougher rules. axios.com/2026/11/05/ai-data…
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I cracked up at this, but as a parent of HS kids I know not to bother to show it to anyone under like 25 b/c they'll think it's old-people humor. The culture wars were our Vietnam. The kids just don't understand.
This is the greatest use case for AI I've ever seen
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Data centers in Loudoun County, Virginia: “We get $1.2 billion a year in local tax revenue, about 40% of all of our tax revenue...on 3% of our land” Buddy Rizer, the county's economic development chief, explained how “data center alley” grew: “We would have never looked at having 55 million square feet of data center, 230-some buildings. That was not the plan. The plan was to utilize the fiber loop, the internet exchange, to utilize a reclaimed water line, and buildings that were already built. That was the plan, right? And so that made a lot of sense.” “But, you know, fast forward, today we are largely dependent on that. We get $1.2 billion a year in local tax revenue, about 40% of all of our tax revenue. And while that looks overwhelming, data centers take only about 3% of all of our land in the county. So it’s quite a return on investment. You know, 40%, $1.2 billion, on 3% of our land.”
SpaceX’s Arizona data center, per a county supervisor: “We could be reducing property taxes across the board in Cochise County, the entire county, by 20%” Frank Antenori, whose district includes the site, brought up the county’s tax math during a live Q&A: “Here’s just something to just chew on. Arizona has an expenditure limit requirement that is placed on counties. If we exceed that expenditure, we have to rebate back to the taxpayers a certain amount.” “So, if we’re receiving revenue in from SpaceX, by law, we have to offset that to the taxpayers. We have the potential to reduce, based on the projected revenue they’re creating, as much as 20%.” “Let me just say it again. We could be reducing property taxes across the board in Cochise County, the entire county, by 20% to offset for the revenue here, because we can’t spend all that money. So, we have to give that money back to the taxpayers. The law says we have to.” “So, you could see a potential significant impact to local property taxes. What that is, I don’t know. We’re going to have to do the math on it. But the law, if we have this large increase in property tax revenue, we have to balance those rates. So that will reduce dramatically the property tax burden of every resident in the county.” “The construction sales tax, which also is the TPT, the transaction privilege tax, the retail tax, and the jail excise tax. So that will be part of the construction tax. We could literally use that money to pay the jail off in 2 to 3 years, as opposed to the 13 to 20 years.” “So this could be a revenue to eliminate the half-cent sales tax in 2 to 3 years. We can get rid of that half-cent sales tax.”
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Jon Stokes retweeted
I’m pretty moderate politically, but I’m pro AI. I’m a data centrist.
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I didn't cover much medical stuff in my pinned guide, but Tom has you with this one. In addition to being a good friend, Tom is an expert in austere medicine, both as a practitioner & an instructor. So if you're preparing for a grid-down, you'll want to bookmark this one.
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Jon Stokes retweeted
We just dropped an all new T.REX ARMS project. 4,200 military manuals, stored as PDFs and EPUBs, all downloadable for free, readable and searchable on the site, with all references indexed and tracable.
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Jon Stokes retweeted
Can I just say,
It's 2027 in the Bay Area. You take a driverless Uber to the polyamorous meetup to chill with your bros. 40% of attendees have the measles
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Jon Stokes retweeted
Tl;dr of my views on AI safety: 1. My main threat models involves (a) non-state actors asymetrically exploiting cheaper technologies over time (see Bobbitt's 'Terror and Consent'); and (b) the road to state overreach and creeping authoritarianism being paved with good intentions. Misuse, bad engineering, and institutional failure more than alien 'scheming'. 2. Safety and capabilities are intertwined, just like a caduceus. You actively need powerful systems for better monitoring, system reliability, societal defenses etc. Unsafe systems are generally commercially useless and/or a liability risk, though there are reasonable disagreements incentive structures. 3. Focusing solely on a model's 'inner alignment' in isolation is insufficient. The difficulty of specifying 'alignment' in the abstract + principal-agent problems suggests that engineering system-level boundaries is the way to go. Also ASI is not a joker card, this applies to powerful systems too. 4. Automating AI R&D is harder than people make it out to be, and does not mean you suddenly lose control. Model gains also remain tethered to bottlenecks, deployment feedback, costs/limited compute, and human normative direction. Humans delegating more does not mean they're out of the loop. 5. AI futurism is too often fatalistic. I disagree that competitive pressures will *necessarily* reduce humans to pets or a sideshow. Automating 'execution' actually pushes humans up the ladder of abstraction toward normative direction and governance; but for the good world we should actively protect and improve liberal democracy.
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Today Physical Superintelligence PBC is announcing a proof of the Aaronson-Ambainis conjecture, one of the central open problems in quantum complexity, with major implications for quantum computing speedup. psi.inc/research/aaronson-am… Thread 👇
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The economically devastated Rust Belt resident asked God, “I had faith in you, but you didn’t save us. You let our town die. Why?” To this God replied, “I sent you three data-center proposals. What more did you expect?”
This is the main street of Monroeville in Huron County, Ohio. The town voted against building a $1 billion data center nearby. Let’s just be honest here, does this town look like it’s doing well enough to reject a $1 billion opportunity for economic development? How are you supposed to fix cost of living when people vote against $1 billion opportunities for jobs and economic development? NIMBYism is killing the West. The same people who hate data centres hate nuclear energy and hate new factories for manufacturing and reindustrialisation. Literally what are you supposed to do? People want 5% GDP growth a year with 0 inflation and then you try to give them new industry and they reject it. Foreign backed information war on the American people has done massive damage to America. People voted against their own jobs and their own economic development because they watched a TikTok saying Donald Trump and Epstein ate Jon Benet Ramsay inside a data center or something.
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I think what's happening is that Woke 2.0 is pluralist this time around. I'm dead serious. Woke 1.0 was sectarian, but the current version is ecumenical. This represents a weakening of the ideology but a strengthening of its ability to dominate & govern.
Talarico: "I also want to work with the president on housing. He's a builder and we need to cut the red tape, the regulation that sometimes my party has been guilty of so that we can build millions of new homes in this country. I also agree with the president on the need to legalize marijuana."
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Gahh I said "pluralist" in the OT when I meant to say "ecumenical". Derp.
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Yeah this is what's up. You will not fight this with the same fear-oriented engagement farming tactics everyone has been hooked on. You have to bring optimism, gravitas, & vision to match the other side. They have leveled up. It's time to do likewise xitter.gq/firesidealpha/status/2…
Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa: “I’m not going to be the governor for just Democrats” She was asked at her first press conference why she’d go bipartisan after voters gave Democrats a mandate: “Because this is about my campaign promises, what I ran to create as governor. We are forging a new way forward. People are tired of the divisions, of the fighting, tired of the culture wars. This is a time to come together in a way that is about just delivering for the people of Texas." "Ernest Bailes, Representative Ernest Bailes and myself were close allies delivering for our public schools. In fact, I count him as one of my best allies for public schools. That is his commitment. There is really little light between our positions on public education, and as such, he serves as a tremendous leader on this transition team." "And look, there are lots of issues with whom my good allies are Republicans. So I’m just about delivering for people. This is not about being a Democratic administration. I’m not going to be the governor for just Democrats. I’m going to be the governor for all the people of Texas.”
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