Director at SABI Strategy Group. Passionate campaigner. Love Rugby. Views are my own.
London, England
Joined April 2011
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My hypothesis is that their driving of the illegal immigration issue has been primarily responsible for their surge in Gauteng. And they have taken votes off the EFF in addition to the ANC as a result.
If ActionSA’s electoral performance proves anything, it is that your presence in parliament matters. The party has effectively become the unofficial opposition, filling the gap left by the MK Party’s lacklustre attempt at establishing itself as the official opposition. ActionSA has put in the work over the past two years, consistently positioning itself in the political conversation and holding the GNU to account. It appears that work is now paying off.
Final margin between the ANC and DA in Mangaung on the PR ballot was 1,452 votes. ANC drops 16 points from 52 to 34 in Free State’s Metro. DA grows 8 points from 26 to 34.
Action SA only on the ballot in Gauteng (3 municipalities) and KZN (3 municipalities) in 2021.
Have grown by 7 points from 11 to 18 in Gauteng and held at 1% in KZN.
Other provinces:
Eastern Cape: 1
Free State: 2
Limpopo: 4
Mpumalanga: 2
North West: 7
Northern Cape: 0.3
Western Cape: 2
Party will be very encouraged by its performance in the North West and Limpopo on top of Gauteng.
Number 5 on the national leaderboard overall.
#LGE2026Results
Decline across all provinces for the EFF on the PR ballot when compared with 2021 (1.7% vds still to be certified):
Eastern Cape: 6 (-2)
Free State: 8 (-4)
Gauteng: 6 (-6)
KZN: 2 (-7)
Limpopo: 11 (-4)
Mpumalanga: 11 (-5)
Northern Cape: 9 (-2)
North West: 13 (-4)
Western Cape: 3 (-8)
MKP not on the ballot in 2021 obviously so looking at 2024 provincial ballot for an indication of their provincial trajectory in #LGE2026
Moving backwards significantly in their most NB provinces of KZN, Mpumalanga and Gauteng.
Eastern Cape: 2 (+1)
Free State: 0.3 (-1.7)
Gauteng: 5 (-5)
KZN: 35 (-10)
Limpopo: 1 (-)
Mpumalanga: 10 (-7)
North West: 3 (+1)
Northern Cape: 1 (-)
Western Cape: 1 (-)
Compared to 2021 - and with 1.6% VDs still to be certified - DA has grown in 7 out of 9 provinces when compared with LGE2021 (PR Ballot)
Best performing province is the Free State in terms of growth.
Eastern Cape: 18 (+3)
Free State: 28 (+9)
Gauteng: 34 (+6)
KZN: 14 (+1)
Limpopo: 8 (+2)
Mpumalanga: 15 (+3)
Northern Cape: 22 (-)
North West: 14 (+3)
Western Cape: 55 (-)
Gauteng still 3 points down on what it got 10 years ago in 2016 (37). Western Cape 9 points down from 2016.
Free State and Mpumalanga the provinces it has grown in provincially in LGEs since 2016.
With only 1.8% of vds still to be certified, the overall provincial picture looks dire for the ANC (PR ballot):
Eastern Cape: 47 (-17)
Free State: 37 (-14)
Gauteng: 21 (-15)
KZN: 20 (-22)
Limpopo: 55 (-15)
Mpumalanga: 44 (-17)
Northern Cape: 42 (-9)
North West: 45 ( -11)
Western Cape: 15 (-6)
Limpopo only province where ANC remains above 50.
Potential of at least 7 “hung” provinces in 2029.
#LGE2026Results
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
1/ NATIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS
Maj. Black VDs
ANC 42% (-20)
MK 13%
EFF 8% (-6)
DA 8% (+4)
ActionSA 6% (+4)
Turnout 48% (+5)
Maj. White VDs
DA 74% (-)
FF+ 11% (+2)
ActionSA 4% (-1)
ANC 4% (-1)
Turnout 64% (+7)
Maj. Coloured VDs
DA 45% (-)
ANC 17% (-7)
PA 16%
Turnout 53% (+5)
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
5pm: 90% of the vote counted. We have 98 hung local councils with no clear majority. And there are 53 councils still to return results. Guaranteed we'll have 100+ hung local councils by the final count. There were 65 following the 2021 elections. theoutlier.co.za/results
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
The ActionSA across ALL MAJORITY BLACK VDs in the metros (ActionSA %):
TSH: 33% (+23)
EKU: 27% (+19)
JNB: 23% (+4)
CPT: 4% (+4)
MAN: 4% (+4)
NMB: 3% (+3)
eTH: 3% (+2)
BUF: 2% (+2)
Massive impact in Gauteng. Work to do in the rest of the country's metros.
With 43 vds still to come in, the ANC has edged ahead of the DA in Mangaung and leads by 34 votes on the PR ballot. Both parties are on 34.1%.
CSIR projection has the ANC edging the DA by 34.6% to 33.3%.
87 of the 140 councils declared thus far are hung. Seven of the eight metros will be hung, including Buffalo City which is now finalised.
From results to coalition negotiations now. #LGE2026
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
UPDATE: The IEC In KwaZulu-Natal says there has been several recounts in eThekwini, Msunduzi and other municipalities, thus delaying the process of declaring the results - KZN Tonight Podcast
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
PROJECTION | MK Party to win eThekwini with 38%, GNU parties can form city govt - SABC-CSIR
brnw.ch/21x6W0Q
Jonathan Moakes retweeted
Greater Taung in the North West is an example of an overhang.
The ANC should be on about 22 seats but have won all 24 wards and will retain an outright majority.
Watch the overhang.
Who would have thought that the Metro to watch on the Friday afternoon would be Mangaung which is literally too close to call between the DA & ANC.
And this is with the ANC being allowed to run PR candidates after its “glitch”!
As things currently stand, 83 out of 117 (71%) “complete” municipalities are hung.
#LGE2026
And in the Northern Cape, 26 municipalities:
8 have been won outright, 7 by the ANC and 1 by the RTC - Tsantsabane.
18 are hung: 17 with the ANC as the biggest party and 1 - Gamagara - with the DA as the biggest party.
8 out of 17 municipalities marked as “complete” in Mpumalanga.
1 - Chief Albert Luthuli - won outright by the ANC.
7 are hung: 6 with the ANC as the biggest party and 1 - Mkhondo - with MKP as the biggest party.
With 88% of the province counted, the ANC is on 45% on the PR ballot, down 13 points from 2021