Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum) profile picture

Former Midwesterner. Fixes problems in govt & business. @BrookingsInst writes on economic, retirement & regulatory issues. Sings well, bikes badly. RT≠...

Washington DC
Joined October 2010
Photo by Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum)Photo by Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum)Photo by Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum)Photo by Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum)Photo by Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum)Photo by Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum)Photo by Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum)Photo by Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum)Photo by Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum)Photo by Josh Gotbaum (@JoshGotbaum)
Would the White House East Wing have been torn down if federal employees knew they don't have to obey illegal orders? President Trump signed the Follow the Rules Act but no one's talking about it. Sean O'Keefe and I explain. @Brookings bit.ly/4hqtl4u
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Most honest observers, even experts, admit they DK who the Democratic presidential nominee will be in 2028. Partly that's bc there's lots of talent out there that might surprise on social media. Here's another: Jon Ossoff politicalwire.com/2026/02/09… via @politicalwire
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Politicians will claim that "the One Big Beautiful Bill" helps everyone. The facts are otherwise: OBBBA will hurt as many families with children as it helps. On net it will ultimately hurt average and poor working families.
Because of OBBBA's benefit cuts for working class and lower-income families, it will likely end up hurting roughly as many families with children as it helps. New analysis from @JoshGotbaum -> brookings.edu/articles/how-c…
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In 2017 President Trump signed a law protecting federal workers from being ordered to break the law. Now his administration is violating that law, the Follow the Rules Act. brookings.edu/articles/the-t…
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2025 Sammies Honoree: Federal Employee of the Year - Dave Lebryk  servicetoamericamedals.org/h… "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs..."
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Most people don't understand economists, despite efforts like @JustinWolfers's here. They do, however, understand that tariffs raise prices, and are beginning to understand that tariffs are (import) taxes that they end up paying. So there's progress. Keep it up, Justin.
Lemme explain what bilateral trade deficits are, so that you can better understand -- and perhaps be infuriated by -- the intellectual error that's transforming our economy. #TeachEcon
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Absolutely true. #Retirement #pensions were created in the 19th century. Much has changed since but -- as our lives get healthier & longer & "careers" = many jobs -- the need for rethinking & reform remains. The challenge is deciding which changes make sense in the 21st C.
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"...in light of the New Orleans #Terroristattack both political parties should ask: “Why is this massive industry not helping prevent such attacks? Why not a tip, as we [get] from banks and every financial institution worldwide...?” nytimes.com/2025/01/04/world…
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From Dave Barry: "we’re looking forward to a beloved New Year’s Eve tradition...in Times Square...that giant ball starts to descend, [and] the people gazing up will all be united by a common hope — that the giant ball was not manufactured by Boeing." wapo.st/3ZVw5Ns
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A reminder that Labor Day was a struggle for ordinary workers to have a better life. That struggle continues. Worth remembering when talking to your boss about your pay & politicians about your vote. open.substack.com/pub/heathe…
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Starving #SocialSecurity instead of saving it?!? Seriously? You don't #SaveSocialSecurity by eliminating taxes that help pay for it. nytimes.com/2024/08/07/busin…
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WOYT. @WendyEdelberg tracks both prices and wages carefully. As of today, by the most common measures, #wages have caught up to #inflation. @BrookingsEcon
Tomorrow morning I’ll be on CNBC’s Squawk Box (in person! not in a Zoom box!) to react to new CPI numbers. I’ll be thinking about our interactive showing how different inflation and pay measures affect conclusions about real pay: hamiltonproject.org/data/has…
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Good #inflation news today. How about also reporting that, for the average person, pay has caught up to rising prices. People might feel better about the economy if they knew that. bit.ly/WagesT00
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With all the focus on #inflation, it's worth noting that average pay has now caught up. Everyone knows prices have risen, but not that wages have, on average, caught up.
Inflation continues to cool, as strongly evidenced by today’s CPI report for June. Most encouraging, prices for staples, including food at home, gasoline, and new lease rents haven’t materially changed for more than a year. And aside from the vexed implicit cost of homeownership, so-called owner’s equivalent rent, inflation has completely cooled off. That is, excluding OER, inflation has been consistent with the Fed’s inflation target for more than a year.
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Perhaps also worth mentioning: Average pay has caught up with rising prices since January 2021
Amazing inflation data for June!!! A big slowdown in shelter growth meant that core was up only 0.1% (0.8% annual rate). That + transitory gasoline decline drove headline down 0.1% (0.7% annual rate). Over the last 3 / 6 /12 months core has been: 1.1% / 3.3% / 3.3%
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And it continues to look as though #WagesAreCatchingUp to #inflation. Worth mentioning.
The economy added 206K jobs in June, continuing at about the same pace it has all year. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1pp but at the same time participation rose 0.1pp so the employment rate was unchanged. Hourly earnings up 0.3%.
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