So I've lost the habit of posting here, as I've been traveling for an extended period of time and busy with personal matters. Plan to resume posting regularly soon. In the meantime let me share some quick market views given the dramatic moves we've just experienced. I see the current move as a smaller scale replay of last year's August crash (which bottomed on Monday). 2024's August crash was driven by the BoJ hiking first (initial trigger for the infamous carry trade unwind), followed by a hawkish FOMC, and then by a dismal payrolls number, unleashing panicky recession calls and everyone suddenly learning about the Sahm rule. This one is similar. Déjà Vu. No carry trade this time. But we had a slightly hawkish FOMC (nothing crazy, as reflected by the small moves in short rates and FX). Combined with heavy noise from earnings (solid earnings for MSFT and META, OK earnings for AAPL, and very poorly received earnings for AMZN). Slightly hot PCE inflation. And very aggressive equities profit taking on Thursday, turning the chart into a bull trap. And today, horrid payrolls report. Trump going ballistic and firing the head of the BLS because he didn't like the data, Argentina style, was somewhat crazy, but noise when it comes to markets. Similarly, Trump continued negative comments on Powell are likely noise at this point, at least for now. What did cause additional dumping was first the US deploying two nuclear submarines to Russia, and then Trump saying the US is prepared for nuclear war with Russia, helping levered panicans get liquidated, thus putting a local bottom on BTC after the close. What about crypto drivers. It's been a very eventful week for crypto. We had dreadful COIN earnings. Concerns about Strategy turning its ATM off (protecting its NAV yet limiting its ability to buy BTC). Concerns about the sustainability of the ETH "DATs" (Digital Asset Treasury Companies). And the SEC launching "Project Crypto", to modernize securities rules and bringing markets on-chain (an extremely bullish development that should drive inflows later in the year). That said, even though the aforementioned concerns emboldened bears, this week's move has been mainly a macro story, given how crypto traded mostly in line with equity indices. More importantly, what about prices. I think crypto either bottomed after today's close, given the sheer violence of that final dump, or will be bottoming together with equities on Monday. Why? Because I see this as a replay of last year's August crash. A violent shakeout. I'll be looking to add to longs on Monday, ideally before the US cash open (assuming a panicky overnight session), if everything goes according to plan. Then up ahead we have 6.5 weeks until the next FOMC, Jackson Hole end of August, and a lot of data to help the Fed decide if to finally cut. I think they cut in September. Fed Governor Kugler quitting the Fed (today) will prove to be an important event, as it gives Trump the opening to appoint someone of his own ahead of time, who would likely lean dovish and put pressure on Powell together with FOMC dissenters Waller and Bowman. This someone could be Trump's choice of future Fed Chair (replacing Powell next May unless something cracks), thus establishing a shadow chair at the Fed, possibly with the ability to steer other FOMC members the Trump way (to cut rates). I remain bullish on crypto into Q4 based on a) expectations of a solid US economy, b) the Fed beginning to cut, and c) continued increase in crypto adoption (both institutional and retail) as the regulatory environment continues to improve. That said, I think DATs will lose momentum dramatically in Q4, which combined with inflation temporarily creeping back up via goods, as US corporates increasingly pass tariffs on to consumers, could complicate market conditions. But we can worry about that later. My 1-year target (mid 2026) for BTC is in the $200k to $250k range. Extreme, but possible. Particularly so given how the Fed would pivot dovish in May 2026 (possibly sooner), increasing the probability of the US economy running hot on both sides, fiscal and monetary. My bigger picture bear case scenario revolves around the possibility of Trump doing poorly in the Midterms. A topic for another time. Now let's see how this ages.