There are many uniformed people on X when it comes to elections, especially in Texas. I'm getting sick of repeating myself to them consistently so I'm just going to make this thread and then point people to it. How do we determine who a Republican or Democrat is in these models when there is no party registration in Texas? Counties post vote rosters on their websites of everyone who votes in each election (with the exception of a few voters who are exempt such as police officers, judges, etc.) An example is this vote roster from Harris County (FYI: if you click the link below it will download a vote roster): appfiles.harrisvotes.com/har… When someone votes in a Democrat or Republican primary they are shockingly identified as a Democrat or Republican in said model. Most of these models take this data from primaries for multiple cycles. If someone has voted in both Republican and Democrat primaries they're considered a "cross over voter" or "independent", if they voted in a Republican primary 10 years ago and have since voted in Democrat primaries they're considered Democrat. There's a sizeable number of voters who only have voted in General Elections or are new voters, they typically get a "lean" designation based on who they live with. So if they live with a Republican we give them a lean Republican score, if they live with Democrats they get a lean Democrat. Like most things in life none of this is perfect but it's helpful. What are your sources? The best source are the county election pages, unfortunately none of them are uniform. They are supposed to post the roster for those who have voted by 11AM the next day. Some post it at 9PM the day of, some just outright don't post them at all and you need to hassle their offices for the files. Here is an example of where you would find the Fort Bend County Data: fortbendcountytx.gov/governm… Here's Brazoria County's: brazoriacountyclerktx.gov/de… To get the data on all of these you need to go through 254 of these separate sites, email the county clerk asking for the roster, etc.

El Paso County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 9) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 112,875 🔴 Republicans: 11,784 (10.4% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 34,212 (30.3% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: D +22,428 R share of identified: 25.6% Latest (Tue Oct 27): D +1,389

Hays County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 9) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 69,666 🔴 Republicans: 13,548 (19.4% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 23,838 (34.2% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: D +10,290 R share of identified: 36.2% Latest (Tue Oct 27): D +298

Denton County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 9) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 238,129 🔴 Republicans: 54,394 (22.8% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 45,584 (19.1% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: R +8,810 R share of identified: 54.4% Latest (Tue Oct 27): R +1,042

Travis County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 9) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 309,087 🔴 Republicans: 43,549 (14.1% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 152,535 (49.4% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: D +108,986 R share of identified: 22.2% Latest (Tue Oct 27): D +8,403

TEXAS EARLY VOTE: If you've been following along you're probably no longer skeptical and can wait a few hours for "the data" that 100 people will post tomorrow. Anyways... Republicans had their best day today, surpassing yesterday (the previous best day). Republicans are surging as Democrats have exhausted their high propensity voters. Turnout was a bit lower today but Republicans have held steady. The biggest change is a falloff with Democratic Primary Voters.

Tarrant County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 9) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 437,377 🔴 Republicans: 135,606 (31.0% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 151,455 (34.6% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: D +15,849 R share of identified: 47.2% Latest: R +3,301

It’s looking like Republicans in Texas won again today but I’ve only seen limited data. Will let y’all know shortly!

El Paso County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 8) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 100,474 🔴 Republicans: 10,905 (10.9% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 31,944 (31.8% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: D +21,039 R share of identified: 25.4% Latest (Mon Oct 26): D +1,316

Brazoria County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 8) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 78,401 🔴 Republicans: 23,335 (29.8% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 20,873 (26.6% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: R +2,462 R share of identified: 52.8% Latest (Mon Oct 26): R +196

Galveston County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 8) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 72,913 🔴 Republicans: 18,752 (25.7% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 12,581 (17.3% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: R +6,171 R share of identified: 59.8% Latest (Mon Oct 26): R +592

Grayson County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 8) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 27,387 🔴 Republicans: 7,932 (29.0% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 2,647 (9.7% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: R +5,285 R share of identified: 75.0% Latest (Mon Oct 26): R +387

Montgomery County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 8) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 113,243 🔴 Republicans: 44,671 (39.4% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 15,230 (13.4% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: R +29,441 R share of identified: 74.6% Latest (Mon Oct 26): R +4,134

Denton County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 8) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 216,557 🔴 Republicans: 50,871 (23.5% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 43,103 (19.9% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: R +7,768 R share of identified: 54.1% Latest (Mon Oct 26): R +1,222

Travis County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 8) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 275,317 🔴 Republicans: 38,746 (14.1% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 139,329 (50.6% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: D +100,583 R share of identified: 21.8% Latest (Mon Oct 26): D +9,248

Collin County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 8) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 244,225 🔴 Republicans: 56,338 (23.1% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 47,661 (19.5% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: R +8,677 R share of identified: 54.2% Latest (Mon Oct 26): R +1,761

Tarrant County, Texas (Days 1 - 8) 🗳️ Ballots so far: 391,257 • In-person: 373,058 • Mail: 18,199 🔴 Republicans: 121,101 (31.0% of all ballots) 🔵 Democrats: 140,288 (35.9% of all ballots) 📊 Margin: D +19,187 R share of identified: 46.3% Latest: R +1,894

Texas Early Vote Update: Republicans crushed the Democrats today. It was the best day for them thus far.

Texas Early Vote Numbers (October 25th)