Pinned Tweet
"You are never as smart as u think you are when you are making money or as dumb as u think when losing"
Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
RFK Jr: The polio vaccine “killed many, many more people” than polio ever did.
What absolute garbage
I still can't believe he said this
Abdul El-Sayed tells you everything you want too know when he says "Israel, Iran are both dangerous in their own way." What garbage.
Did it ever occur to you that listening to Trump might not be a reusable way of discerning the truth?
The S&P 500's earnings growth supporting this bull market, comes from just 10 stocks that account for two-thirds of the index's total growth. "An inch deep and mile wide." wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-e…
Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
Well, well, well… maybe change is in the air…
Ken Griffin explains why the rise of passive investing only works as long as active managers keep doing the research that sets prices
“So what’s very interesting is the rise of passive investing plays to the realization that markets are either efficient or semi-efficient."
"And it’s a way for investors to have low-cost exposure to either broad indices, to the world as a whole, or to specific sectors without having to pay the fees of active management."
"It’s been revolutionary for the world, this embracing of passive investing. But passive investing only works if there’s a meaningful community of people involved in fundamental research who are helping to set the pricing of securities."
"So passive investing requires the existence of capable, successful, and competitive traditional asset managers for the theory that underlies passive investing to actually play out, to actually manifest itself."
"So the rise of short-term investors helps to ensure that markets are efficient with respect to news that’s rapidly evolving. But we should really try to make sure that we take every step possible to make it that traditional asset managers have the ability to have prosperous and successful firms because they are so critical in the price discovery process that passive investing depends upon.”
1 of 2) $SPX The next time you see a post on midterm seasonality, take a deep breath and consider the following: 6 of the 1st 9 months this year (including the 1st 5 mos this year) had results contrary in direction to what seasonality would suggest using midterm yrs since 1980.
2 of 2) Oct. averages 3.5% gains in midterm years, the strongest seasonal month. With 5 sessions left, $SPX is MTD -0.36%. Current macro context is more likely to drive prices than the calendar. Depending on the calendar can be akin to wishing on a star. Sometimes it will work.
Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
High-frequency US inflation data point to a 4% annualized rate of increase (0.34% m/m) @augurinfinity
While this post deals with the need for context in looking at sentiment, it is equally applicable to most indicators. Indicators tend to act different given context. Greed tends to be more persistent & less violent than fear. You see more spike lows vs rounding highs.
The same sentiment signal can mean opposite things depending on one thing: the trend it shows up in. An industrials versus staples flip just fired, and whether it’s bullish hinges entirely on context. Inside an uptrend the next few months lean positive. Pulled out of context, nearly half the past cases came from the 2000 and 2008 bear markets.
Four reports this week. Weight of Evidence: Constructive, selective.
U.S. Stocks • Staples • Gold Miners • Bitcoin
Read the full Weekly Research Signals: mailchi.mp/sentimentrader/go…
While the Houthis have their own reasons for attacking Saudi assets, it clearly doesn't displease Iran. It has produced elevated tension in the Mideast & made oil markets strong of late. It serves Iran's interest without their enduring further destruction ahead of the midterms.
This is not 1980. The availability of complex positioning due to index futures, ETFs and options (including ODTE) make it silly to apply analysis of short interest as if it existed in a vacuum. Net exposure is what people are trying to discern and it's just not that simple.
Everyone who keeps sharing these short interest charts is missing the flows behind them. Most shops are not taking outright short bets. This is another effort to ease margin requirements across the street: banks providing balance sheet for more speculative bets are asking clients to post more short exposure.
The sequence on the street looks like this:
HF manager: “I want more margin.”
Bank: “Things look risky in public AI bets, and we’re already lending a lot against private AI bets. For some clients, we’ll extend more financing, but only if they add more short exposure to improve their collateral scores.”
HF manager: “Okay, I’ll short more stock against my main bet.”
That is how you end up with short exposures that look astronomically high while many end users remain heavily long tech. The additional shorts are supporting the financing of their main bets.
Which also tells the bigger story on why raw equity financing rates haven’t blown out the way they did ahead of the big SpaceX IPO in June, despite the fact that lending is slowing.
Democrats are making graft/corruption an issue in the midterms. They have a big target. wsj.com/politics/elections/m…
It took quite a while but Ukraine's Starlink has been restored to full speed. wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine…
Bill Maher on his dinner this week with Trump: "I could not have been treated better if I were Russian."
It's so Donald Trump to defend that Vivek Ramaswamy commercial attacking a woman who was sexually abused. It's right in his wheelhouse. If you want to disagree, feel free.
















