ING’s Chief International Economist. Views are (sometimes) my own.
New York, USA
Joined February 2017
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James Knightley retweeted
Intensifying cost-of-living concerns, linked to the price of motor fuel and the war with Iran, have boosted the Democrats' chances of regaining control of Congress, but nothing is guaranteed in US elections.
@Knightleyeco looks at the 3 possible scenarios and what they may mean for the economy and markets.
think.ing.com/articles/us-mi…
James Knightley retweeted
We've just published our October Economic Update, covering some of the biggest themes shaping markets and the economy.
🟠Updated forecasts for central banks, FX and rates
🟠France's fiscal crisis and the ECB's options for responding
🟠Our latest oil outlook. We continue to forecast Brent at $80/bbl in 4Q26, well below current market pricing
🟠3 scenarios for markets ahead of the US midterms
🟠3 scenarios for inflation in the months ahead 📈 (see graphic)
Make sure you read it all here: think.ing.com/bundles/ing-mo…
James Knightley retweeted
The ongoing surge in tech-related capital spending is supporting US manufacturing. But job creation remains slow and wage pressures are remarkably benign, writes @Knightleyeco
think.ing.com/snaps/us-manuf…
James Knightley retweeted
Just two weeks ago, markets priced in "next to nothing" for a Fed rate hike. Now it's a 1 in 3 chance.
@Knightleyeco of @ING_Economics tells @RemyBlaireNews the shift isn't really backed by the data, inflation numbers have been good and jobs numbers came in below expectations, but oil price volatility tied to the Strait of Hormuz could keep inflation elevated if shipping disruptions persist.
James Knightley retweeted
Crude oil prices have surged to their highest level in more than six weeks as tensions in the Middle East re-escalate. But @Knightleyeco still expects US inflation to ease this year. Here's why
James Knightley retweeted
"I'm still leaning in the direction that the Fed doesn't need to hike rates."
@Knightleyeco of @ING_Economics tells @RemyBlaireNews falling gas prices, declining rents, wage growth slowing toward 3%, and the absence of last year's tariff step change all support a "prolonged pause."
James Knightley retweeted
Weak sentiment in the jobs market, a soft housing market, and declining inflation suggest the Fed will stay on hold for some time.
@Knightleyeco explains more in this piece: think.ing.com/opinions/why-w…
James Knightley retweeted
.@Knightleyeco talks to @Reuters about why he doesn't agree with the OECD's forecast that US inflation will hit 4.2% this year due to soaring oil prices.
'Unlike in 2022, higher oil prices will erode spending power & that could actually lower inflation.'
reuters.com/video/watch/idRW…
James Knightley retweeted
Higher energy prices could hardly come at a more pivotal time for central banks.
Join our webinar next week, where we'll discuss how high energy prices would need to rise – and how long they’d need to stay elevated – to trigger central bank rate hikes.
think.ing.com/articles/centr…
James Knightley retweeted
🇺🇸 Rising global energy prices threaten to squeeze US household spending power and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Read @Knightleyeco's analysis of how the Iran war could impact the US here:
think.ing.com/articles/us-in…
James Knightley retweeted
In theory, the new universal tariff rate of 15% should mean a slightly lower average tariff rate. In practice, a simplified tariff structure could lead to a higher realised rate. @Carstenbrzeski and @Knightleyeco explain
think.ing.com/articles/new-t…
James Knightley retweeted
Consumers + tech spending are the two main reasons why we think the US economy will continue to do well next year.
Yet the gap between high earners and others is widening. And @knightleyeco says concerns about job losses aren't going away.
Watch: think.ing.com/articles/knigh…
James Knightley retweeted
The U.S. government shutdown has put its highly anticipated jobs report on hold at a time of major economic uncertainty. Still, @Knightleyeco tells me there are other tea leaves economists can read to figure out where the U.S. stands.
James Knightley retweeted
🎙️In this week's THINK aloud, ING's @Knightleyeco and @marketsgarvey discuss the implications of Trump’s efforts to steer monetary policy - and the economic narrative - through high-profile firings at the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
think.ing.com/podcasts/liste…
James Knightley retweeted
"The credibility of U.S. economic data is under the microscope—and for good reason."
James Knightley @Knightleyeco, Senior International Economist at ING, joins us to unpack the ripple effects of weak job reports, data revisions, and a potentially shifting political narrative.
James Knightley retweeted
🇺🇸 We think US rate cuts could come sooner rather than later. We're now pencilling in September. Here's what ING's @knightleyeco reckons ⬇️
James Knightley retweeted
In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, ING's @ingafechner, @MarketsGarvey, and @Knightleyeco look at what the latest tariff delay could mean for trade, economic growth, and US Treasuries
think.ing.com/articles/liste…
James Knightley retweeted
🇺🇸 President Trump's fiscal policies, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, are set to widen the US deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade.
Learn more about the economic impact from @knightleyeco and others: think.ing.com/articles/how-p…
James Knightley retweeted
"Cooling U.S. inflation boosts confidence, but will it last? James Knightly breaks down the CPI drop.” - James Knightley @knightleyeco at @ing_economics
James Knightley retweeted
Tariffs - this is going to hurt. Even in America, at first.
Give us a minute and watch this from our US economist @Knightleyeco