Kurshot

Kyle Reidhead: SpaceX is on track to spend $470B on capex in the next 5 quarters, ~2x what Amazon, Google or Meta each spend. He says SpaceX can fund it because it builds so fast: "Elon can do this in sixty days, ninety days," and "within six months, it's already paid back." His model has SpaceX at about $122B of quarterly revenue by Q4 2027, up from $14.6B in Q3. He still sees about $150B of debt over the next 5 quarters, so it's a structural bet on AI compute demand. Can SpaceX earn back its capex that fast, or does the debt become the problem? FT @KyleReidhead @LgDoucet.

It’s almost incomprehensible how wide the distance is between someone who’s working at the frontier with AI and basically everyone else right now. The crazy thing is these lines are not converging, but only growing farther apart. If the curve of AI progress had leveled off, it would certainly have given most people and companies time to catch up or implement their workflows in a standardized way. The technology would have neutralized competitive advantage because everyone would be using it the same way. But what’s happened is the opposite. The curve of AI progress is basically going vertical right now, which means if you had codified your processes 3-6 months ago you’re likely already behind again. Now imagine most companies that kicked into gear a year ago and thought that they were done. Even further behind now. I’ve never seen a technology in my life and career that improves at this rate, which consequently means you need to upgrade your expectations at a similar rate. Our brains weren’t wired for this, and our organizational change management processes certainly weren’t either. With any form of recursive self improvement, things just get wilder. It’s a time when you will need to be constantly reevaluating the things that didn’t work just a couple months ago to see if they now can be solved. AI native companies certainly have a strong advantage due to this right now, so now it comes down to can the bigger companies keep up. Wild times.

Doing monotonous, boring, low-paying work is not required to be a happy human being. What is required is mental stimulation and a meaningful mission or goal that you make daily progress with. All actions by humans require energy and effort, even getting out of bed. Therefore surfing could be considered "work" The difference between work and any other action is merely whether you enjoy it or not. And there's lots and lots and lots of things to do in life besides monotonous, boring, low-paying work, which is what the vast majority of humans on this planet do.

there is no moat

That’s fair and makes sense. But what almost no one is taking into account is Elon is getting smarter and more efficient due to decades of experience in the trenches building impossible businesses. So not only is he wiser now, but his businesses are now organized better, run better, and have better teams due to that experience. This is not the time to doubt Elon’s time frames. This is the time to capitalize on everyone else’s doubt they have from Elon’s past performance. Most aren’t wise enough to see the evolving picture. You won’t be one of them.

I asked Claude how 10 Billion Humanoid Robots Could Change the World.

Live by the sword, die by the sword. Those who pick fights with me should understand that I will find out who is really pulling the strings and come for them, not just their puppets …

Wanting to become rich tells me very little about what you’re going to build... Tell me whose life you want to improve. How much will it cost to reach the goal? How long will it take? What people have given up hope for? NOW you have a business plan.

I’m tempted to pull all my diversified investments and just dump into $SPCX. There is virtually no risk of failure, they have no competition, and a clear path to 100x their current revenue. That’s bond style safety with Elon style returns.

In the age of super intelligence, the current standards of living will look medieval. The problems that society worries about right now will be largely irrelevant. It’ll be the equivalent of current society worrying about the bubonic plague.

Dario Amodei: AI could surpass human intelligence by 2027. “I think it’s possible it could be longer than that. I don’t think it will be a whole bunch longer.” “AI systems will be better than almost all humans at almost everything.” “When that happens, we’ll need to have a conversation about how we organize our economy.” “How do humans find meaning?” “The idea that humans produce economic labor and get their sense of self-worth from it will be invalidated.” “My true belief is that this is coming.”